Cheap Oil: A Brave New World for Canadian Equities

The nearly 50% drop in oil prices since June is creating winners and losers worldwide. The U.S. and China are net winners, while Saudi Arabia and Russia are losers. What about Canada?

For Canada, the overall impact of low oil prices is unclear. There’s a good chance the downturn in the oil and gas sector can be offset by: (1) higher spending by Canadians, who will pocket an extra $1,500 annually per household if oil stays at current prices; (2) an increase in Canadian exports to the rebounding U.S. economy, where Canadian goods are now lower-priced thanks to the drop in the loonie.

What we do know is that the dramatic drop in oil has created pricing disparities among sectors. Extremely low oil prices have been fully priced into energy stocks but not yet priced into other sectors that are benefiting from cheap oil. This discrepancy creates opportunities. Below, we report on which companies we track in “How We Rate” are good buys at recent prices.

Oil & Gas

The 29 oil & gas stocks that we cover in our “How They Rate” section were down 41% in 2014. We don’t think 2015 will repeat such devastation, especially for high-quality producers. Still, it could take some time for oil prices to stabilize at higher levels, given the global oversupply of oil and Saudi Arabia’s unwillingness to lower output.

For aggressive investors, we suggest these high-quality companies, which are poised to benefit from the eventual rise in oil prices: ARC Resources Ltd., Vermilion Energy Inc., Peyto Exploration & Development Corp., and Crescent Point Energy Corp., whose management team successfully navigated the steep plunge in oil prices in 2008-09.

For more on these four, see this month’s Portfolio Update.

Energy Services

Aggressive investors with long-term horizons can pick up solid companies at compelling valuations here, albeit with serious downside risks. The nine companies we cover in this sector posted an average loss of 31% in 2014.

Newalta Corp and ShawCor Ltd. are “buys,” up to $20 and $44, respectively. We’ve lowered Aggressive Holding PHX Energy Services Corp to a “hold” due to uncertainty about its investment plans.

Energy Infrastructure

Companies in this segment generate fee revenue from long-term service contracts for oil and gas (pipelines, processing, transport, etc.) and are a conservative way to invest in the energy sector.

AltaGas Ltd. stock is down recently due to the viability of liquefied natural gas exports, but its current operations (power generation, pipeline, transmission and storage) provide long-term stability and growth.

Keyera Corp.’s recent weakness is tied to lower prices for natural gas liquids, but it too has a foundation for long-term capital appreciation and dividend growth.

Pembina Pipeline Corp. is the most exposed to crude oil, although it expects to boost its 2015 investment budget by 36%. More than CAD1.5 billion of fee-for-service assets will come online this year, expanding an already impressive platform to build wealth for investors.

Gas & Propane

EnerCare Inc.’s 40%-plus gain in 2014 probably won’t be repeated. Still, EnerCare is well positioned for growth, with customer retention rates strongly positive and organic growth in its core Ontario market.

Parkland Fuel Corp. cut its 2015 earnings forecast due to a delay in its acquisition of Pioneer Energy, although we expect the deal to go through and add to earnings. Lower oil prices mean higher profit margins on refined-products sales.

Natural Resources

A lot depends on the trajectory of China’s growth in 2015 and whether authorities there announce additional stimulus measures.

Acadian Timber Corp.’s primary markets are North American and European housing, with management’s positive outlook based on wealthier U.S. consumers.

Ag Growth International Inc. continues to benefit from favorable North American crop conditions and is expanding its global operations.

Electric Power

Higher interest rates in North America: That is the biggest risk for the 13 electric power companies we track. But if rates do rise, we don’t expect a big increase due to continued deflationary pressures.

Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP was up 24% in 2014. It may not post such gains this year, but its long-term prospects are bright. And it’s still trading below our buy-under target of $34. Brookfield’s hydro and wind plants operate under long-term power purchase agreements (PPA) that allow for predictable cash flow and growing dividends.

The same can be said for Innergex Renewable Energy Inc., whose stock finished the year with a bang, based on better-than-expected third-quarter results.

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. continues to expand, with an emphasis on growth opportunities in the U.S. Its lower-risk business model means a sustainable and rising dividend.

REITs

If interest rates do rise in 2015, we’ll likely see a sharp selloff in REITs. We advise taking advantage of such drops to buy into these four REITs:

Canadian Apartment Properties REIT owns high-quality properties in key business districts. RioCan REIT owns best-in-class retail assets in Canada and the U.S. Artis REIT’s portfolio also generates stable and growing cash flows, while Dream Industrial REIT is well-positioned to benefit from the continuing expansion of online retail.

IT/Communications

The six traditional telecom companies we track, including Conservative Holding Shaw Communications Inc., generally had solid returns in 2014.

Rogers Communications Inc. was threatened by the Canadian government’s efforts to nurture a fourth national wireless carrier, and Manitoba Telecom Services Inc. suffered from customer losses in regular phone service and the cost of growing  its Allstream wireless service.

Canada remains committed to introducing a fourth carrier to the sector, so 2015 will be even more competitive for the existing Big Three: BCE Inc., Rogers and TELUS Corp.

BCE’s expansion and improvement of its wireless and wireline networks will drive subscriber growth and better financials in 2015.

Financials

Canada’s Big Six banks, including Conservative Holding Bank of Nova Scotia, will have to adjust to lower underwriting fees from the oil and gas sector in 2015. The collapse of oil prices could also lead to more non-performing loans and/or charge-offs.

DH Corp.’s business model is effectively recession-proof; North American banks and credit unions need to upgrade their transaction and customer service platforms to provide basic customer service. We have more on DH Corp in this month’s Best Buys feature.

Food, Hospitality & Merchants

Cineplex Inc., our top pick here, is poised to benefit from a strong lineup of films slated for 2015 release and ancillary revenue.

Liquor Stores NA Ltd.’s turnaround program is having the intended effect, with third-quarter sales up 5.2% and solid improvement in gross profit margin.

Health Care

An aging population in the U.S. and Canada along with increased government spending support the four health care companies we track.

As we note in this month’s Portfolio Update, we’ve lowered our rating on Extendicare Inc. to hold as we wait for evidence that management can put to use the proceeds from the sale of the U.S. operations to maintain the current dividend rate.

A solid alternative is Leisureworld Senior Care Corp., whose long-term care facilities boast a high and sustainable 99% occupancy rate.

Transports

We’re bullish on new Aggressive Holding WestJet Airlines Ltd. due to lower jet fuel prices and its longer-term potential for capacity expansion.

TransForce Inc. continues to gobble up smaller North American logistics competitors and to expand free cash flow enough to support the 17% dividend increase announced last month.

Rising demand from the U.S. should help drive the Great White North’s non-energy exports.

Student Transportation Inc. will benefit from the positive impact of higher budgets for local school districts in the U.S.

Canadian National Railway Co. and Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. will be hurt by the downturn in oil and gas, since a sizable chunk of their business is oil and gas transport. Still, both are well-run, high-quality businesses that are likely to benefit from stronger growth in North America during 2015.

Industrials

Bird Construction Inc. could be hurt by the potential delay and even cancellation of its building projects in the Canadian oil sands, but its overall business is in decent shape and should benefit from an improving economy.

Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd. should see more business in 2015, as an improving U.S. economy usually means more garbage to handle. Progressive Waste has long-term contracts with high-quality customers and is bidding on major contracts in the U.S.

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