Crisis Mode

The Reserve Bank of Australia has gone into crisis mode now that the country’s commodities boom appears to be over, but that shouldn’t affect investors looking to mine the rich dividends from many of the country’s premium companies.

 Yes, the overnight cash rate is now at 2.25% after the central bank cut it by 25 basis points a couple of weeks ago. That’s lower than it was during the financial crisis of 2008–2009. And it’s a sure sign that RBA Governor Glenn Stevens and his colleagues are concerned about Australia’s transition out of the commodities boom that defined the last 10-plus years.1502_ae_ib_gr_audusd

The iron ore drop threatens to pull the rug out from under a two-decade-plus party during which Australia has avoided recession. Australians seem to be taking it in stride, though, a signal of their confidence in their country’s resilience. Consumer confidence Down Under is at near-term highs in the aftermath of the rate cut, even though unemployment jumped in January to a 12½-year high of 6.4%.

For U.S. investors focused on dividend-paying stocks, the key issue remains what the Federal Reserve will do with its benchmark interest rate and when it will do it. “Quantitative easing” is essentially over. The next step in the normalization of monetary policy will be a move off the extraordinary “zero bound,” where the fed funds rate has rested since December 2008.

But the Fed is in no hurry to raise rates. Recent economic data suggest that patience is a wise posture.

Regardless, with its February rate cut, the RBA joined the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, and the central banks of India, Denmark and Switzerland in announcing substantial policy shifts or easing monetary settings—in some cases dramatically—since January 1.1502_ae_ib_gr_asx_spx_mxwo

Even if the Fed makes a modest 25-basis-point hike, or even two moves totaling 50 basis points this year, it’s likely that global demand for the safety (“full faith and credit”) of U.S. paper will keep a lid on market rates. And that means investors who want to get paid some income will have to find dividend-paying equities.

We continue to focus on businesses of the highest quality—in Australia with Australian Edge, in Canada with Canadian Edge and in the U.S. with Utility Forecaster—or those that are capable of sustaining payouts through this trying cycle and growing them under normal conditions.

As we detail in this month’s Portfolio Update, 11 of our 14 Conservative Holdings—the foundation point for investors of all risk tolerances—have pushed out to new 52-week highs on the Australian Securities Exchange during the 10 days ended February 12.

These are the names perceived to be the safest stores of value and the best sources of consistent income, by Australians as well as investors around the world.

Market fortunes have also turned for our two Sector Spotlights, AGL Energy Ltd. (ASX: AGL, OTC: AGLNF, ADR: AGLNY) and GrainCorp Ltd. (ASX: GNC, OTC: GRCLF), stocks beaten down by external factors but supported by businesses well positioned for the long term.

Recent dividend increases have also supported buy-under target increases for several Conservative Holdings.

If you’re looking for value, income and growth Down Under, these are the places to start.

In Closing

Please join me for the next installment of my monthly online chats with subscribers on Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2015, at 2 p.m.

Go to www.InvestingDaily.com/Aussie-Edge/live-web-chats/ for more information and to sign up to receive an e-mail notification for the event.

I stick around to answer just about every question asked, so if there’s something on your mind that isn’t addressed in an issue or on the Stock Talk forum, this is a great opportunity.

Thanks for reading Australian Edge.

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