Property Values
Perhaps no other sector epitomizes the global hunt for yield as much as Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REIT). During the year ended February 12, the S&P/Australian Securities Exchange 200 Property Index posted a 37.1% total return in local currency terms.
Even accounting for the 14% slide in the value of the Australian dollar versus the U.S. dollar, the group generated a gain of 18.1%.
REITs around the world have benefited from traditional bond investors leaving risk-free assets for higher-yielding vehicles during a period of historically low interest rates.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is hovering around 2%, closer to its 52-week low than its 52-week high. And that 52-week high—2.82%—is still well below the long-term average.
And central banks are in cutting mode.
The Fed may indeed hike its benchmark rate sometime in 2015, although recent jobless claims and retail sales data suggest, along with the potential headwinds from slowing global demand, that U.S. monetary policymakers will, in their own words, exercise an abundance of “patience” before acting.
In this environment of low interest rates on risk-free assets, high-yielding vehicles such as REITs will continue to attract investors. The question after the strong run for the S&P/ASX 200 Property Index is whether investors can still find value in the sector Down Under.
Individual investors as well as global institutions are scooping up Australian property assets. Former AE Portfolio Conservative Holding Australand Property Group, for example, was acquired by Singapore-based Frasers Centrepoint Ltd. in August 2014 for AUD4.48 per share.
Overseas interest in Australian property assets remains high, though speculation of late has centered on tie-ups between domestic entities in the aftermath of a period of balance sheet repair, portfolio rationalization and strong cash generation that’s left A-REITs in good position to expand.
Conservative Holding Stockland (ASX: SGP, OTC: STKAF) has been mentioned as a possible rival bidder for Novion Property Group, which recently agreed to merge with Federal Centres.
Meanwhile, Stockland continues to benefit from the record-low rate environment, while population growth and migration are also supporting still-strong demand.
The share price is pushing out to post–financial crisis highs, as Australian home loans rose more than expected in December 2014 and consumer sentiment reached its highest level in more than a year following the RBA’s 25-basis-point reduction in its benchmark overnight cash rate on Feb. 3.
Stockland posted expectations-beating fiscal 2015 first-half underlying profit of AUD290 million, an 8.5% year-over-year increase. Net profit surged 55.1% to AUD462 million.
The A-REIT saw growth across all of its businesses, with the residential unit leading the way with a 72.8% increase in operating profit.
And management lifted its full-year earnings per share (EPS) growth guidance to between 6.75% and 7.5% from an August 2014 forecast of 6% to 7.5%. CEO Mark Steinert anticipates a supportive residential market “at least for the next couple of years, and probably a bit longer.”
Stockland is a buy under USD4.
Fellow Conservative Holding GPT Group (ASX: GPT, OTC: GPTGF) pre-reported key 2014 financial results in late January.
Funds from operations (FFO) were AUD452 million, with FFO per share growth of 4.1%. Management guided GPT Group to 2015 FFO per share growth of 5%.
GPT could be among several bidders for Investa Office Fund, which is controlled by Morgan Stanley. GPT Group is a buy under USD4.
Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR, OTC: MRVGF) is looking to add retail assets rather than office properties, though, in addition to potentially competing for Novion, it may look to bid for Investa’s high-quality book of buildings.
Dexus Property Group (ASX: DXS, OTC: DXSPF), a leader in the Sydney and Melbourne office markets, has been linked with an all-share offer for Investa. Dexus successfully bid for Commonwealth Property Office Fund in 2014.
A-REITs are performing because rates are low. And low rates are fueling mergers-and-acquisitions speculation.
At the same time, rates are low because of very real concerns about economic growth.
Stockland’s and GPT’s management teams have exercised discipline in their approach to M&A opportunities in recent months. That’s a hard lesson of the Great Financial Crisis, when A-REITs got crushed after expanding their portfolios and loading up their balance sheets.
Our current advice is predicated on the assumption that Stockland and GPT will continue to exercise hard-learned discipline during this latest expansion frenzy.
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