China Stimulus Pushing Growth Throughout Asia
The governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) recently said that China’s economy has slowed “a bit too sharply,” and hinted at more stimulus. The PBOC has also decided to soften mortgage rules, lowering the minimum down payments on second homes. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said that the PBOC may also lower benchmark lending rates and banks’ required reserve ratios as well.
A possible boost to Asia’s largest economy is a plus for the entire region and Asian stocks rallied following the news. The Shanghai Composite rose 2.6%, its highest one-day gain since March 2008. Japan’s Nikkei index rose by 0.8%.
While the S&P 500 was relatively flat for the first three months of 2015, Asian markets have performed remarkably well. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index—led by three of its largest economies— rose almost 7% in the first three months, more than double the MSCI World Index’s 3% gain over the same period.
China’s Shanghai Composite is up 17% so far this year, its highest since May 2008. And there may be more gains driven by the speculation of more monetary stimulus.
The Nikkei 225 benchmark index is up a 10% for the first quarter, its best quarter since the fourth quarter of 2013. Japanese stocks are enjoying benefits from the central bank’s asset-buying program stimulus and a shift in the country’s pension funds out of bonds and into equities.
Japanese stocks are up during the quarter despite a sluggish economy following a consumption tax increase last year, a 2.9% decrease in household consumption and a 3.4% drop in industrial output.
The Australian Stock Exchange is up 8.9% for the year despite a downturn in economic conditions due to lower commodity prices. This rally—the ASX’s best since the third quarter of 2009—was driven by Australia’s propensity for high-yield dividend stocks and monetary easing in China.
Since Japan and Australia are heavily dependent on China, any boost in the economy will deliver a ripple of benefits to the surrounding economies.
GIE Plays in Asia
As the world’s second largest bank, Global Income Edge holding HSBC (NYSE: HSBC) offers strong global diversification. It generates about two-thirds of its earnings from Asia so its fortunes are tied more closely to this region than any other. Its heavy exposure to Asia means that growth in the region would have a greater impact on the company’s bottom line. Asian growth would mean greater profits for the company and increases to its already generous 5.9% yield. GIE Aggressive Holding HSBC is a Buy under $55.
A pickup in Asian economic conditions will benefit Australian banks. GIE Aggressive portfolio holding Westpac Banking Corp (NYSE: WBK) is one of only four major banks in Australia and New Zealand. It also has an expanding Asian presence which management expects to expand by sevenfold to $750 million in the next four years. Yielding 5.3%, Westpac is a Buy up to $34.
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