Aussie Companies Return Record Cash to Shareholders
If you’re a U.S. investor in Australian stocks and don’t follow what’s happening with the country’s exchange rate, then you might assume some of your companies are performing more poorly than they are in actuality.
That’s because the Australian dollar has fallen slightly more than 30% from its post-financial-crisis high.
With the exception of the 2008-09 global downturn, U.S. investors shrewd enough to anticipate the decade-long commodities boom enjoyed a significant tailwind from the corresponding appreciation in the Australian dollar.
That incredible run took the aussie from a low of USD0.48 in 2001 all the way above parity with the U.S. dollar, finally peaking at USD1.10 in July 2011. In fact, the country’s currency enjoyed a sustained period above parity with the U.S. dollar that–aside from occasional dips–lasted from November 2010 through May 2013.
That unusual strength seemed to mystify Australia’s own policymakers, who frequently noted that the aussie was trading well above its fundamental value. Of course, they were concerned about the deleterious effect the high exchange rate was having on the company’s exporters. Their own preference is for the currency to trade around USD0.75, just below where it is presently.
Meanwhile, retail investors outside of Australia, who were skeptical of the extraordinary easing underway at many of the developed world’s central banks, saw Australia’s currency as having the implicit backing of hard assets–as opposed to a keystroke and a promise.
And institutional investors enjoyed Australia’s relatively high interest rates. Indeed, even with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) benchmark cash rate at an all-time low of 2.25%, that’s still markedly higher than many of its developed-world peers.
It wasn’t until May 2013, when the U.S. Federal Reserve revealed that it was considering how to unwind its extraordinary stimulus, colloquially known as QE3, that the aussie started to sell off in earnest.
That policy divergence is likely to continue. Based on data from Bloomberg, a majority of traders expect the RBA to lower short-term rates by at least another 50 basis points this year, while the Fed is expected to raise the federal funds rate off the zero bound at some point later this year.
The aussie currently trades near USD0.77. The consensus forecast is for the currency to bottom around USD0.74 this year, affording U.S. investors who are new to Australia’s investment story, or who simply have new money to invest, an opportunity to buy stocks at a sizable discount.
Meanwhile, Australian stocks have been marching higher. The country’s share market trades just 10% below its all-time high, which it hit back in September 2007. And the S&P/ASX 200 is just a strong trading day or two from breaching the psychologically significant 6,000 threshold.
But when dividends are factored into the market’s performance, it actually hit a new all-time high last month.
Australian companies’ customarily high dividends should also help us endure the decline in the currency. With Australia’s economy faltering amid the global commodities crash, companies are opting to return cash to shareholders rather than invest in new growth.
In the long term, of course, that would prove to be a poor strategy. But in the short term, during a period of uncertainty, we’re glad to have the extra income. And at least in local currency terms, it also helps push share prices higher.
According to J.P. Morgan, last reporting season the aussie market’s payout ratio rose by about 5%, to 65%. And UBS said dividends grew by 5% to 6%, when excluding the resource sector.
Although that might raise questions about dividend sustainability, some analysts believe that a high payout ratio enforces discipline when it comes to capital allocation.
As one Australian fund manager told the Sydney Morning Herald, “For a high dividend payout ratio company, let’s say that the payout ratio was 70% of earnings and they’re retaining 30%. Because of the relatively small amount of money to reinvest, it meant they were really disciplined with that capital.”
By contrast, he noted that the same studies showed low dividend payout ratio companies took to “empire building” that eroded shareholder value. “What they ended up doing was making acquisitions, doing capex, it was like money burning a hole in a pocket.”
As investors, it’s important to ensure we get paid first. If that happens, then in most cases, capital appreciation will soon follow.
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