The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) doesn’t always follow through on what the smart money expects it to do. And even when it does, the central bank still finds a way to sow confusion.

First, the RBA confounded a majority of traders after it cut rates in early February, but then held the line at its March and April meetings.

This time around, however, the central bank finally fulfilled just about everyone’s expectations–well, at least as far as the latest rate cut goes. Yesterday, the RBA announced that it had cut the cash rate by a quarter point for the second time this year, bringing the country’s benchmark short-term rate to a new all-time low of 2.0%.

The RBA’s latest move marked the 10^th time it has lowered rates since it embarked upon the current rate-cutting cycle in late 2011.

So why now, instead of March or April?

A rising Australian dollar may have been what finally forced the central bank’s hand, while muted inflation afforded it the scope to continue cutting. The RBA has long been on the record that it believes a lower exchange rate is necessary to spur new growth now that the decade-long mining boom is in bust mode.

But in the short term, the aussie hasn’t always been cooperative. For instance, in the days leading up to the RBA’s latest policy meeting, the currency actually hit a three-month high, just above USD0.80, up 5.7% from a cycle low in mid-April just under USD0.76.

In his statement on the monetary policy decision, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens noted that, “Further depreciation seems both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices.”

Nevertheless, in the wake of the rate-cut announcement, the currency once again exhibited its stubborn streak, though the RBA’s statement is largely to blame for that.

The culprit was the absence of a key sentence that had routinely appeared toward the end of previous statements: “Further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead, in order to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation consistent with the target.”

Without such guidance, traders understandably jumped to the conclusion that the RBA’s rate-cut cycle is now over.

In setting up the scene of a typical trading floor following an important monetary policy announcement, Westpac Chief Currency Strategist Robert Rennie told The Sydney Morning Herald, “Instantly, the only thought you have is the last sentence of the statement itself.”

Imagine an entire trading floor briefly falling silent, as each trader furiously scrolls toward the bottom of the RBA’s policy statement. Then, based on Rennie’s description, the din that follows: “As every analyst, economist would have shouted at the same time ‘there is no guidance’–so traders stopped selling and started buying.”

And buy they did. The aussie briefly dipped, then ascended back above USD0.80.

That’s probably not the reaction the RBA had intended, especially since it’s said in the past that it believes an exchange rate near USD0.75 would be a more reasonable level for the currency. But we won’t know for sure until the central bank releases its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) later this week.

That’s because, as Westpac Chief Economist Bill Evans has noted, the central bank tends to time its rate cuts to be coincident with the release of the SOMP. That document gives the RBA the opportunity to fully explain its rationale for any monetary policy decisions.

In the case of a rate cut, Westpac believes that this means the RBA has likely lowered its forecasts for the country’s economy “due to a more cautious view around the timing of the recovery in non-mining investment; the pace of the slowdown in mining investment; and the outlook for exports, with the major miners reviewing their production plans.”

If so, then that means it’s premature for anyone to conclude that the central bank’s rate-cutting cycle is now over, even though financial heavyweights such as ANZ Bank chief Michael Smith are urging the bank to stop lowering rates.

Smith told The Australian that he wants the RBA to refrain from further rate cuts because he’s concerned about the country’s housing boom and also believes it would be prudent for the central bank to preserve some monetary “ammunition” in case of future economic shocks.

However, Smith is more likely concerned about his bank’s bottom line. When central banks cut rates to historic lows, there’s a point at which it starts to erode banking profits.

One major sign this is happening is when banks stop passing along the full rate cut to their borrowers. According to The Australian, ANZ passed along the full quarter-point cut to its customers, while some of its peers held back 3 to 5 basis points.

Nevertheless, a substantial number of traders still believe another rate could happen later this year. Based on futures data aggregated by Bloomberg, there’s a 37.6% probability that the RBA could cut rates once again at its November meeting. And if the SOMP reveals that the central bank has lowered its economic forecasts, then that number could grow.