Welcome to Pacific Wealth
Hello, I’m Martin Hutchinson, and I’d like to welcome you to the new service that is replacing Australian Edge, though it is more of an evolution than a change. The new service is Pacific Wealth, and in a week you will be getting your first issue.
This weekly story, previously Down Under Digest, is now Pacific Digest, as you see.
You have been investing in Australia, and I’d like to reassure you that I’m convinced Australian investment continues to be a good idea. But Australia’s greatest strength, even more than her mineral resources, is that she’s part of the Pacific Basin region, the world’s greatest wealth generator both now and for the next generation. So I hope you’ll agree with me that broadening your focus to the entire Pacific Basin is the best, most profitable course.
First, I’d like to tell you a little about me. I am a British born graduate of Cambridge’s Trinity College, and of Harvard Business School. I went into merchant banking upon graduation from Harvard and spent a 27-year career in international banking and consultancy.
My interest in the Pacific basin began in childhood, three years of which was spent in Singapore, which became independent from Britain and began its extraordinary growth story under Lee Kuan Yew while I was there.
My research report at Harvard was on investment in Malaysia, much of my early merchant banking experience was in Japan, I spent three years doing investment banking in Latin America, mostly the Pacific countries, and I was for five years advisor to the Korean conglomerate Sunkyong. So my financial expertise is wholly international, largely emerging markets, and within emerging markets largely Pacific Basin-focused.
You can see why investing in the Pacific Basin is a good idea just by looking at growth rates. According to the Economist magazine’s team of forecasters, the United States will have an average growth rate of 2.7% over the two years 2015-16. I actually believe that estimate is high – it doesn’t take into account the tiny 0.8% growth in the first quarter of 2015, or the shocking decline in productivity in the last two quarters.
The Eurozone, your non-Pacific alternative for investing outside the U.S., is expected to grow by 1.7% on average. Australia, where the Australian Edge service has concentrated, is expected to grow at an average of 2.6%, a similar rate to the U.S.
However even most of the richer countries of the Pacific Basin are expected to grow faster – Singapore and South Korea at 3.2%, Taiwan at 3.4%. Japanese growth is disappointing at only 1.2%, but then look at the growth rates in the best emerging Pacific Basin countries.
You knew about China, expected to grow at an average of 6.8%, but there’s also the Philippines, expected to grow at 6.6%, Vietnam at 6.3%, Malaysia at 5.5% and Indonesia at 5.3%. Overall, according to the International Monetary Fund, emerging Asia is expected to be the fastest growing region in the world, growing at an average of 6.5% in the next two years. And there’s an additional benefit: some of these fast-growing countries, notably Philippines and Malaysia, are running substantial current account surpluses, which means they’re in no danger of running out of money when the next credit crunch hits.
The eastern Pacific Basin (what the rest of us think of as the West Coast of Canada and the U.S., and the West Coast Latin American countries) are no slouches either. Four of them, Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Chile, have formed a Pacific Alliance to generate more business with Asia.
Their growth rates in 2015-16, according to the Economist, are Mexico 3.1%, Colombia 3.8%, Peru 4.8% and Chile 3.5%–all of them ticking along nicely, in spite of lower prices for their oil and mineral exports.
That’s the case for investment in the Pacific Basin: it’s the world’s fastest growing region, it diversifies you from U.S. difficulties, and most of its countries have decent governance – you can rely on their companies’ accounts and on the security of your property as investors. It’s tough for U.S. investors to get good information on the region, particularly the political/economic factors, but that’s where experience helps.
We’ll have new investments (and many favorites from Australian Edge) in our first Pacific Wealth issue next week, and we’ll keep tracking the other AE portfolio investments for you.
This is an exciting time to be profiting from other Pacific Basin countries, and I’m looking forward to working with you over the coming years.
Stock Talk
Grumpy Mike
Sure hope that you are going to tell us what to do with the Australian Edge stocks which you do not include in your “new” list and don’t leave any strings hanging.
Bob Frick
Mike,
Yes, we will. While we are eliminating the How They Rate table, we will continue to follow the rest of the Aggressive and Conservative portfolio holdings from Australian Edge.
– Bob
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John Percival
Since purchasing Australia and NZ Banking Group in Feb., share price has dropped nearly 12%.
Since purchasing Telstra in Feb., share price has dropped 9%.
I have not received any “Alerts” to sell either. No one wants to be on a sinking ship. What do you recommend.
thank you,
Dr. John Percival
John Percival
Bob-
I did check my spam folder but have not received that I’m aware a response to my question about Telstra and Australia and NZ banking group.
Thank you,
John Percival
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Benjamin Shepherd
John,
Right now, we’re not cutting either ANZ or Telstra.
Australian banking regulators have recently mandated tighter lending requirements for real estate investors (owner-occupiers are still enjoying looser lending standards) and pushing the Big Four to raise additional capital, all of which are weighing on banking shares. We’re not particularly worried abotu Australian and NZ Banking Group’s long-term prospects, though.
In the first half of fiscal 2015 the bank’s loan volume was up 10% while its deposits grew by 12%. The overall credit quality of its loan portfolio also improved, with bad and doubtful debts down by 3% year-over-year to just 0.19% of average gross loans. The bank’s operations in the Asia Pacific also surprised to the upside as profits grew 39% versus the second half of 2014.
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group is probably the most diversified of the Big Four, operating in 32 global markets. That, coupled with the bank’s strong underwriting standards on loans, leaves it well positioned to weather any turbulence in the Australian real estate market even as it can deliver solid long-term growth.
This week’s Pacific Digest was actually on Australian banks and you can find it at:
http://www.investingdaily.com/pacific-wealth/articles/22899/australias-banks-are-solid/
We’re also not too concerned about Telstra, given its position as the dominate Australian telecom. It is the market leader in all of the segments it operates in and expects to mobile 4G network to cover about 95% of the population by the end of this month. As a result of its vast network, it’s the lowest-cost operate in the country and it’s not likely that anyone will meaningfully challenge that position.
Ben
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