Staying Healthy on a Diet
Portfolio Action Summary
- EQT GP Holdings (NYSE: EQGP) recently added to Aggressive Portfolio; buy below $33
- Hi-Crush Partners (NYSE: HCLP) downgraded to a Hold in Aggressive Portfolio
- EQT Midstream (NYSE: EQM) recently upgraded to a Buy below $100 in Growth Portfolio
- Cedar Fair (NYSE: FUN) buy limit increased from $58 to $60 in Aggressive Portfolio
- Delek Logistics Partners (NYSE: DKL) buy limit increased from $45 to $52 in Growth Portfolio
- Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) buy limit increased to $75 from $65 in Aggressive Portfolio
- EnLink Midstream (NYSE: ENLC) buy limit lowered to $35 from $44 in Aggressive Portfolio
- Navios Maritime Partners (NYSE: NMM) buy limit recently lowered to $12 from $17.70 in Aggressive Portfolio
- Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP) buy limit lowered to $110 from $135.
AmeriGas Partners (NYSE: APU) reported a 3% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, driven by significant margin expansion as the 60% drop in benchmark propane prices left a little more on the table for the nation’s largest propane distributor. The higher wholesale margins and reduced operating expenses trumped the 6% volume decline attributable to unusually warm weather in western U.S.. Strong margins are expected to persist so long as propane stays cheap. The distribution increased by the predictable four cents per unit from a year ago, for an annualized growth rate of 4.5% and a 7.7% current yield. The unit price is down 2% over the last month. (All monthly price updates in this article are through May 14.) Buy APU below $51.
Antero Midstream Partners (NYSE: AM) delivered a 6% sequential distribution increase following its first full quarter since the IPO, and said it remains on track to grow its distribution 28% to 30% this year. Strong gas gathering volume growth courtesy of sponsor Antero Resources’ (NYSE: AR) aggressive Marcellus drilling program produced distribution coverage of 1.2x for the current 2.7% yield. The unit price has advanced 7% in the last month. Buy AM below $30.
Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) The leading private equity firm’s preferred income measure doubled in a year’s time while distributable earnings per unit jumped 165%, lifted by the rising tide of lucrative fund exits the associated wave of performance fees. The variable distribution rose 13% sequentially and nearly tripled year-over-year for a current annualized yield of 8.3%, and 6.2% based on the payouts over the past year. Past payouts probably understate Blackstone’s current momentum, however. Assets under management were up 14% in a year’s time to $310 billion, even as Blackstone’s funds returned $63 billion to investors. The unit price is up 6% in the last month. Buy BX below $48.
Boardwalk Pipeline Partners (NYSE: BWP) reported an 18% year-over-year drop in distributable cash flow on warmer winter weather and lower gas demand than a year ago. The partnership stuck with its 15-months-old policy of paying a token yield (currently at an annualized 2.3%) and retaining the rest to reinvest in pipeline projects mostly along the Gulf coast. These are meant to offset the numerous south-to-north gas transport contracts expiring in 2018-2019 that are unlikely to be renewed on comparable terms, if at all. Still, management is seeing good demand for north to-south shipments and for pipelines associated with new petrochemical and LNG projects along the Gulf coast. The unit price rose 5% in the last month. Buy BWP below $19.
Buckeye Partners (NYSE: BPL) maintained its recent distribution growth pace by boosting its quarterly payout by 1.25 cents per unit, and by 4.5% year-over-year. The glut of crude filled up Buckeye’s marine storage terminals at higher rates, and also boosted volumes on its fuel pipelines and terminals. But lower butane blending and vapor recovery profits weighed. So did the cost of adding staff to cope with the big Texas coast logistics project undertaken in a partnership with the big oil trader Trafigura. Distribution coverage was 1.06x, and should improve from here as Buckeye gets the benefit of a full quarter of revenue from the Texas project. Units have appreciated 4% in the last month, and yield 5.8%. Buy BPL below $83.
Capital Products Partners (NASDAQ: CPLP) announced its first distribution increase in almost five years — a modest bump of 0.8 cents in the annual payout — and said it plans to grow the distribution at least 2-3% annually over the next two years, in line with planned tanker purchases from its sponsor. The new payout provides a current yield of 10.4% and was backed by the targeted 1.1x distribution coverage that dipped to 1.0x following a $133 million equity offering by the partnership in late April. Most of the money raised went to pay down credit facilities, deferring further amortization payments until late 2017 and adding to the cash stash earmarked for four more scheduled tanker dropdowns by the sponsor. CPLP is growing alongside a resurgent energy shipping market, with product tanker rates doubling in the last year as a result of increased trading demand. The partnership rechartered four tankers at appreciably higher rates during the quarter and has more below-market charters expiring this year. Its charter coverage stands at 89.5% for 2015 and 67.5% for 2016. The unit price is down 9% in the last month. Buy CPLP below $10.
Cedar Fair (NYSE: FUN) reported “early-season strength across all aspects of our business, including season pass sales, hotel accommodations and group bookings,” though the CEO also cautioned that the winter quarter on which that optimism is based represents less than 5% of the amusement parks operator’s annual revenue. The partnership also set a new goal of increasing its cash earnings by 4% annually during the next four years, which would support a distribution recently increased 7% year-over-year. The current yield is 5.2%. The unit price ticked up 2% in the last month. Buy FUN below the increased price target of $60.
CVR Refining (NYSE: CVRR) reported strong operating throughput for the first quarter, and the CEO noted that while the improvement in refining margins seen in January and February had leveled off by the end of March, the margins remain favorable. The variable distribution partnership declared a quarterly payout of 76 cents per unit, for an annualized yield of 14.9% at the current price, and 12.9% based on the distributions over the last year. Volumes in the partnership’s crude gathering business rose 23% year-over-year, providing its two mid-continent refineries with discounted inputs and advancing the goal of spinning out its logistics operations as a separate MLP. The unit price has dipped 4% in the last month. Buy CVRR below $26.
DCP Midstream Partners (NYSE: DPM) didn’t increase its quarterly distribution for the first time since 2010, and signaled the intent to keep it at that level for the rest of the year. That’s a symptom of the pain inflicted on the bottom line by the sharply lower natural gas and natural gas liquids prices, which affect DPM’s take from processing contracts that pay it in processed product. Although the partnership is well hedged for 2015 and has already begun adding hedges for 2016 and 2017, its exposure in those years to NGL prices, which are pegged off crude, remains a worry. So do DPM’s ties to its debt-laden sponsor, enough so that the partnership was compelled to move its commodity hedges with the parent LLC to an independent counterparty during the last quarter. On a more positive note gas throughput volumes at DPM’s plants have remained strong, producing distribution coverage of 1.16x in the latest quarter. The partnership remains upbeat about its customers’ production plans and its chances to grow and hedge its way out of current difficulties. The unit price rallied as much as 9% during the second half of April but has since given it all back to trade flat for the month. The current yield is 8.3%. Buy DPM below $42.
Delek Logistics Partners (NYSE: DKL) posted first-quarter distributable cash flow and EBITDA marginally below the year-ago numbers, but only because it incurred $3.4 million in one-time costs mostly tied to its rapidly evolving growth initiatives. Even including these, distribution coverage was 1.2x for a payout recently increased 25% year-over-year. Excluding those one-time items boosted the adjusted coverage to 1.5x. Higher earnings from a crude pipeline that recently lined up more throughput at a higher tariff offset a drop in the profitability of wholesale fuel marketing in West Texas. The expansion projects of sponsor Delek Holdings (NYSE: DK) continue to fuel DKL’s growth, and Delek’s just completed acquisition of a 48% stake in neighboring refiner and filling station operator Alon USA (NYSE: ALJ) has the potential to turbocharge that growth and produce additional asset dropdowns for Delek Logistics. The unit price has moved up 9% in the last month, but still yields 4.7%. Buy DKL below the increased limit of $52.
Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) posted a 69% surge in distributable cash flow per unit as the just completed merger between subsidiary MLPs Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) and Regency Energy Partners pumped up their string-pulling general partner’s incentive distribution rights. The increased tribute provided 1.21 distribution coverage, much improved from 1.02x a year ago, on a payout that rose 37% year-over-year and is not slowing down any this year. The current 2.8% annualized yield could be expected to rise to 3.5% by the fourth quarter’s payout if the unit price were to merely tread water. It rose 6% to a record high in the last month. Buy ETE below the increased limit of $75.
Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) reported slight increases in adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow on a pro-forma consolidated basis with Regency, as strong gas gathering, processing and fractionation volumes offset weakness in the gas pipeline segments. But distributable cash flow per common unit plunged 27%, drained by the 17% increase in the unit count over the last year as well as the toll of ETE’s fast-rising incentive distribution rights. That didn’t stop ETP from increasing its distribution by 8.6% year-over-year, but it did reduce the recently much stronger coverage ratio to 1.04x. Management expects to nudge that closer to 1.1x by squeezing permanent annual savings of $160 million to $225 million from the latest merger, much of it by year-end. Units gained 5% in the last month and still yield 7.1%. Buy ETP below $70.
EnLink Midstream (NYSE: ENLC) increased its first-quarter distribution 4.3% sequentially and 36% year-over-year, with 1.29x coverage based on its receipts from affiliates. But the distribution coverage at its publicly traded operating affiliate EnLink Midstream Partners (NYSE: ENLK) was lacking at 0.88x. Management is still aiming to boost that to “about one times” for all of 2015. It’s counting on recent acquisitions, scheduled dropdowns and strong production growth at ultimate sponsor Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN). But in the meantime the bankruptcy filing of a North Texas customer could cost EnLink as much as $7 million, while an extended outage at an Oklahoma gas processing plant will set back operating income by up to $5 million and require an additional $2 million to $3 million in maintenance spending. The unit price slipped 1% over the last month. The current yield is 2.9%. Buy ENLC below the reduced limit of $35.
Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) showcased the diversity and resiliency of its midstream assets in first-quarter results, holding its operating margin flat vs. a year ago and boosting distributable cash flow 4% after adjusting for asset sales and insurance recoveries. But it took the $6 billion Oiltanking acquisition closed earlier this year, billions more in organic project additions and a boost from Seaway and other onshore crude and fuel pipelines just to offset the bite of reduced margins from natural gas processing and NGL marketing volumes associated with lower energy prices. The distribution coverage was 1.4x for a payout that rose 5.6% in a year’s time, for a current yield of 4.4%. The unit price ticked up 1% in the last month. Buy EPD below $42.50.
EQT (NYSE: EQT) reported a 12% year-over-year dip in first-quarter operating income, as the 37% increase in production nearly offset the toll of sharply lower energy prices. The company continues to target a production gain of 23% to 26% this year, but trimmed its production capex budget by 8% to reflect negotiated service price cuts that will lower EQT’s cost per well by 10-15%. Despite the luxury of sitting on $1.6 billion in cash and an untapped $1.5 billion credit line, the company halted its Permian Basin development program in March when it became uneconomical. But it’s continuing to test the Utica dry gas deposits beneath its core Marcellus shale position. EQT also highlighted the value of its midstream operations by spinning off its interests in EQT Midstream (NYSE: EQM) into a separate MLP, EQT GP Holdings (NYSE: EQGP). The unit price rose 7% in the last month. Buy EQT below $100.
EQT GP Holdings (NYSE: EQGP) enjoyed a strong market debut befitting a growth-oriented general partner vehicle that expects to double its cash flow within two years. Units priced at $27, above the projected range of $21 to $24, and soared to $33 at the outset of public trading on May 12. At that price, the projected yield is just 1.2%, and a likely afterthought for buyers justifiably banking on rapid growth. Buy EQGP below $33.
EQT Midstream Partners (NYSE: EQM) was not at all hurt by the lower prices realized by its sponsor EQT (NYSE: EQT), and much helped by the latter’s sharply higher production volumes. The gathering system at the core of EQT’s turf that was dropped down to EQM last year pushed first-quarter cash earnings 5% above the prior forecast. The partnership’s first-quarter distribution was up 24% over the prior year, and EQM is now targeting annual growth of 20% through 2017. The unit price climbed 2% in the last month. Following the results, we upgraded EQM to a Buy below $100.
Exterran Holdings (NYSE: EXH) reported solid first-quarter results, with gross margin flat from the prior quarter and contract compression revenue as well as margins holding up thanks to customers’ resilient production volumes. But the fabrication backlog shrank dramatically, aftermarket services are also facing a slowdown, and the company is negotiating price cuts with customers. While these are unlikely to result in a dramatic revenue slump, Exterran is tightening its belt by cutting capital spending and other costs, especially in manufacturing. The planned spin off of international and manufacturing operations into a separate independent company remains on track to be completed in the third quarter. The share price has dropped 10% in the last month, giving up all of April’s rally and then some so far in May. Buy EXH below $42.
Exterran Partners (NYSE: EXLP) reported a 36% revenue gain and a 41% distributable cash flow boost year-over-year, as acquisitions, efficiency initiatives and strong demand helped margins. The distribution coverage improved from 1.09x a year ago to 1.42 times in the latest quarter, though that was down from 1.51x in the prior period as limits on the sponsor’s cost reimbursements expired. The distribution increased 4.7% year-over-year, for a current yield of 8.1%. Unlike the sponsor’s share price, EXLP has been in a steady uptrend since mid-December, appreciating 9% in the last month to a six-month high. Buy EXLP below $34.
GasLog Partners (NYSE: GLOP) The unit price is down 6% in the last month. Buy GLOP below $26.
Genesis Energy (NYSE: GEL) The unit price has ticked up 2% in the last month. Buy GEL below $53.
Global Partners (NYSE: GLP) The unit price rose 5% in the last month. Buy #8 Best Buy GLP below $50.
Hi-Crush Partners (NYSE: HCLP) units slumped 16% during the last month as the contracts locking up the bulk of its fracking sand output for the next four years proved less firm than hoped, with hard-hit shale drilling customers securing price reductions and volume deferrals that could linger. As a result, revenue dropped 22% from the fourth quarter of 2014, while the distribution was hed flat. Distribution coverage declined from 1.31x in the fourth quarter to 1.0x three months later. The partnership is being hurt by a backlog of several thousand shale wells drilled but not fracked, as their owners wait for oil prices to rebound further. Management chose not to provide guidance for 2015, beyond promising to “at least” maintain the current distribution. At its current yield of 8.5% the price appears to have already factored in the recent bad news. But this is an even riskier holding now given the recent revenue erosion, and we’re downgrading HCLP to a Hold.
Holly Energy Partners (NYSE: HEP) The unit price has climbed 7% in a month. Buy HEP below $40.
Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) The unit price is down 2% in the last month. Buy KMI below $45.
KKR (NYSE: KKR) The unit price has traded sideways over the last month. Buy KKR below $26.
Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP) The unit price is up 4% in a month. Buy MMP below $90.
MarkWest Energy Partners (NYSE: MWE) The unit price has risen 5% over the last month. Buy MWE below $77.
Navios Maritime Partners (NYSE: NMM) failed to cover its payout for the latest quarter, though it continued to bolster distribution coverage after the fact by taking delivery of another container ship. Counting the projected (but not yet realized) contributions from that vessel and another container ship NMM has an option to buy by the fall would have only boosted the coverage to 1.04x. Setting those aside, the first-quarter operating surplus covered just 80% of the payout. On the plus side, 2015 revenue is now locked in and management’s commitment to maintain the current payout through the end of 2016 is backed by cheap debt that mostly doesn’t come due until 2018. The unit price is down 11% in a month. We recently lowered the buy limit on NMM to $12 to better reflect the partnership’s risks and the industry’s weak current state.
NuStar Energy (NYSE: NS) continues to benefit from increased crude volumes shipped by its expanded pipeline system in the Eagle Ford, where the best situated drillers are still ramping up output, taking advantage of declining unit costs and proximity to the Gulf Coast’s large refining hubs.
NuStar now expects Eagle Ford crude shipping profits to increase by some $45 million, or 18%, year-over-year, and $10 million more than it forecast three month ago. Its distribution coverage improved from 1.12x in the fourth quarter of 2014 to 1.25x in the first quarter of 2015, reinforcing our view that distribution growth will resume soon after a four-year pause. The unit price rose 2% over the last month. Buy NS below $70.
NuStar GP Holdings (NYSE: NSH) continued to hold its distribution level as it has since 2012, for a 5.7% yield after the unit price jumped 11% over the last month. The rally began as the NuStar Energy affiliate reported strong quarterly results. Subsequently, Chairman of the board Bill Greehey bought units worth $1 million between May 7 and May 13, his first NSH purchases in more than a year. Greehey also bought NS units worth $1.3 million this month, bringing his purchases of NS to $7.4 million so far in 2015. Buy NSH below $45.
Oaktree Capital Mgmt (NYSE: OAK) The unit price is up not quite 3% in the last month. Buy OAK below $52.
PBF Logistics (NYSE: PBFX) The unit price is up 4% in the last month. Buy PBFX below $28.
Plains All American Pipeline (NYSE: PAA) reported slightly better than forecast first-quarter results, but left its guidance for 2015 in place. The partnership’s wide footprint in crude logistics and the respect earned by CEO Greg Armstrong over many years give its big-picture forecasts extra credibility, and PAA expects bulging U.S. inventories to inflict significant near-term weakness on domestic oil prices before a powerful recovery over the longer term. First-quarter results provided unexpectedly strong 1.14x coverage for a distribution increased 8.7% year-over-year. The current yield is 5.7% after the unit price fell 3% over the last month. Buy PAA below $58.
Plains GP Holdings (NYSE: PAGP) lifted its first-quarter payout 30.2% year-over-year and continued to target a 21% growth rate for all of 2015. The current yield is 3.1% after the unit price rose 3% in a month. Buy PAGP below $30.
Scorpio Tankers (NYSE: STNG) The share price is up less than 1% in the last month. Buy STNG below $9.50.
SemGroup (NYSE: SEMG) The stock has dipped 4% in the last month. Buy SEMG below $82.
Shell Midstream Partners (NYSE: SHLX) The unit price has jumped 14% in the last month. Hold SHLX.
Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE) The stock retreated 2% over the last month. Buy SE below $42.
Spectra Energy Partners (NYSE: SEP) The unit price slipped 1% in a month. Buy SEP below $64.
Sunoco Logistics Partners (NYSE: SXL) The unit price is down 4% in the last month. Buy SXL below $55.
Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP) provided annual guidance alongside its first-quarter distribution, and is now aiming to increase the dividend at least 25% this year with 1.0x coverage. That’s based on a forecast of flat to low single digit volume growth in Targa’s field gathering and processing operations in 2015 from relative to the fourth quarter of 2014, along with expectations for reduced commodity and LPG export margins. Unless commodity prices recover further, field volumes in 2016 could decline, the company noted. In the wake of the Atlas acquisitions, TRGP’s tax rate is expected to plunge to 5-10% this year and to remain below 15% in 2016. Shares gained 1% over the past month. Buy TRGP below the reduced limit of $110.
Targa Resources Partners (NYSE: NGLS) now expects to increase its distribution 4-7% in 2015 as a result of weak commodity prices, with 1.0x distribution coverage just like its sponsor. The long-term goal is coverage of 1.1-1.2x; management is willing to forego that cushion while energy prices remain weak. The first-quarter payout grew 7.5% in a year’s time, for a current yield of 7.1%. The unit price is up 4% in a month. NGLS remains a Hold.
Teekay Tankers (NYSE: TNK) The stock dropped 4% in the last month. Buy TNK below $7.50.
TransCanada (NYSE: TRP) The share price is back to where it stood a month ago. Buy TRP below $52.
UBS E-TRACS 2x Monthly Leveraged Long Alerian MLP Index (NYSE: MLPL) The note’s price has risen 7% in a month. Buy MLPL below $58.
UGI (NYSE: UGI) reported marginally lower second-quarter earnings than a year ago, as a strong performance by its midstream unit still fell short of the record profits racked up a year earlier thanks to the bitter cold on its Pennsylvania home turf.
Midstream remains the company’s growth engine as it seeks to take advantage of notably stronger natural gas demand and the associated increase in seasonal volatility in peak pricing. UGI is taking advantage by building connections to major Marcellus supply pipes and ramping up small-scale production of liquefied natural gas for resale within the region.
It’s recently expanded the capacity of its current LNG plant and this weeks announced plans for a second one to launch in early 2017. UGI’s still expanding European propane distribution business also delivered improved results, as did the affiliated U.S. propane distribution MLP AmeriGas (NYSE: APU).
The company nudged its annual earnings per share guidance higher by 6% and the dividend it’s paid every year since 1885 by 4.6%, for a 2.5% current yield. Shares have appreciated 4% over the past month. Buy below $45.
Western Refining (NYSE: WNR) The stock has risen 7% in a month. Buy WNR below $57.
Williams (NYSE: WMB) unveiled a planned merger with its MLP affiliate Williams Partners (NYSE: WPZ) last week, offering an 18% premium in an all-stock deal that it said would prolong annual dividend growth of at least 10% through 2020, while improving coverage and leverage metrics. The stepped up growth is to begin with an augmented third-quarter dividend of 64 cents a share. Williams shares advanced 6% on the news. The merger is expected to close in the third quarter subject to regulatory approvals and a vote by Williams shareholders. In reporting first-quarter results late last month, Williams warned that Williams Partners’ EBITDA and distributable cash flow would end up near the low end of its guidance for 2015 as a result of the prolonged ramp of production at the recently restarted Geismar olefins plan and “the effects of low commodity prices on volumes and margins. That likely would have left the partnership’s distribution coverage for the year below 1. The merger would eliminate the shortfall by exchanging higher yielding WPZ units for lower yielding WMB shares. Buy WMB below $59.
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