Aiming High
I’ve been working on my presentation for Investing Daily’s Investing Summit at the end of the month in Denver, and am already excited about sharing it here soon after.
The mile-high view is that the resilience of the U.S. midstream sector remains underestimated, as is the world’s need for additional energy supply from North America over the next few years.
What’s striking, though, is that despite the big oil rally over March and April, the implied bullishness really hasn’t trickled down into the prices of many of the largest master limited partnerships. The Alerian MLP Index is down 3% year-to-date, with a flat total return factoring in the yield.
It’s even down 1.3% since Jan. 21, when crude fetched $48 a barrel. The trouble is, that best-known Alerian index has recently become less reflective of the midstream sector after losing Kinder Morgan Partners (and soon Williams Partners) to the new fashion for MLP buyouts by corporate sponsors.
All I know is that the MLP Profits Best Buys are seriously outperforming the Alerian, thanks in part to a couple of corporate giants not in the Alerian because they pay income or happen to operate as an MLP general partner, even though both remain huge midstream players. We are also outperforming thanks to some names off the beaten path picked up while they were discounted heavily in January by indiscriminate sellers.
The 10 investments on the Best Buys list published Jan. 21 have appreciated 13.1% since (not counting distributions), vs. the Alerian’s -1.3% depreciation.
CVR Refining (NYSE: CVRR) has rallied 43% over that span, while DKL Logistics (NYSE: DKL) is up 28% in four months, and has lined up enough attractive growth opportunities to justify an increased buy limit. We’ve championed the downstream theme for months and plan to keep riding this powerful current.
We’re also increasing out buy limit on Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE), which has also risen 28%, but not on Williams (NYSE: WMB), another Best Buy that’s up 26%.
Despite the Alerian’s drift over the last four months, only two of our top 10 picks are down.
The rationale for the Williams merger and the financial engineering dilemmas confronting Energy Transfer are laid out in the first of this week’s two In Focus features. The second deals with the proposed new Internal Revenue Service rules on what constitutes MLP qualifying income. It’s possible to spin such issues as problems, but fortunately they’re ones investment bankers and tax lawyers are used to solving.
The Portfolio Update this month attempts to put many of the quarterly results and conference calls from the past month in context. That doesn’t use any more space than a copy-and-paste job from a press release, but does take a lot more time, but I hope you will find that context highly useful.
Most of the portfolio is covered in some detail, and the remaining entries showing only the past month’s performance and our target will get more space and time in June.
The portfolio on the whole seems to be performing reasonably well, if not quite as well as the Best Buys. (I haven’t compiled the overall numbers and won’t do so until the end of June.) It’s gratifying to see recent recommendations like Cedar Fair (NYSE: FUN), NuStar Holdings (NYSE: NSH) and Blackstone (NYSE: BX) get off to hot starts, and we’re not going to apologize for following MLP profits beyond the energy industry to private equity and amusement parks.
Our overriding goal remains to add value, not track an index.Portfolio Action Summary
- EQT GP Holdings (NYSE: EQGP) recently added to Aggressive Portfolio; buy below $33
- Hi-Crush Partners (NYSE: HCLP) downgraded to a Hold in Aggressive Portfolio
- EQT Midstream (NYSE: EQM) recently upgraded to a Buy below $100 in Growth Portfolio
- Cedar Fair (NYSE: FUN) buy limit increased from $58 to $60 in Aggressive Portfolio
- Delek Logistics Partners (NYSE: DKL) buy limit increased from $45 to $52 in Growth Portfolio
- Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) buy limit increased to $75 from $65 in Aggressive Portfolio
- EnLink Midstream (NYSE: ENLC) buy limit lowered to $35 from $44 in Aggressive Portfolio
- Navios Maritime Partners (NYSE: NMM) buy limit recently lowered to $12 from $17.70 in Aggressive Portfolio
- Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP) buy limit lowered to $110 from $135 in Growth Portfolio.
Stock Talk
Joseph Merback
Do you think NMM distribution is safe?
Igor Greenwald
I would never call a 10%+ yield safe in the current rate environment. What I do believe is that barring a global economic downturn there’s a very good chance NMM will maintain the current payout through the end of 2016 as it’s promised. How economical in the long run the containerships it’s buying to maintain that distribution will prove and how the bulk and container shipping markets develop, we’ll just have to see. I like to think of NMM not as a safe yield but as a possibly cheap option on the prospect that even markets as lousy as the shipping ones turn around eventually. Not sure how volatility compares to the shipping sector in general, but it’s a $750 million float stock in a volatile niche, so that just comes with the territory.
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Joseph Merback
Why is NMM more volatile than the sector?
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Richard Bryan
Seems like EPD continues to be hit by selling. Really down this week. Have I missed anything? Are they particularly affected by commodity prices? Is their continuous quarterly distributions increase still intact?
I see that it is still a buy.
Thank you for all you do…I appreciate it and keep up the good work.
Igor Greenwald
Please see related comments I made earlier today here: http://www.investingdaily.com/mlp-profits/stock-talk/#comment-60934 and here: http://www.investingdaily.com/mlp-profits/stock-talk/#comment-60935. EPD is being punished because low NGL prices (tied to crude pricing and natgas supply) will hurt it without a doubt, but one of the reasons we made it the top Best Buy back in January is that it has plenty of surplus cash flow (excess distribution coverage) to weather such weakness. The distribution is safe as they come, though that doesn’t mean we’ve hit bottom, unfortunately.
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peppi
HAVING CONSIDERABLE TROUBLE HOLDING MY POSITION ON NMM. THEIR HIGH YIELD IS A MAGNET BUT I COULD USE SOME INSIGHT ON WHAT TO DO. I HAVE A CONSIDERABLE POSITION, IN EXCESS OF
$250,000 AND TORN BETWEEN RIDING IT OUT OR GETTING OUT. NAVIOS MARITIME IS A SUBSTANTIAL COMPANY AND WELL MANAGED—BUT CIRCUMSTANCES IMPACTING THE COMPANY ARE WORRISOME.
THANKS IN ADVANCE FOR YOUR ASSISTANCE.
PEPPI
Igor Greenwald
Nothing has really changed with NMM in recent months. It’s not quite earning its distribution at the moment, but trying to make it seem otherwise by investing in containerships, one hopes on terms that will make sense over the long run. One positive development of late is that the dry bulk charter market seems to have bottomed. I think there wil be better opportunities to sell if you’re so inclined.
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