Telecoms could soon cash in thanks to the TPP
For nearly five years now, U.S. President Barack Obama and his administration have been working to put together the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a massive free trade agreement between the U.S., Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. The deal would be one of the largest free trade agreements in history, covering about $1.5 trillion worth of trade in goods and $250 billion worth of services based on data from 2012.
While the deal could become even larger if Korea, which asked to join the TPP last month, is included, as it stands the treaty will cover more than 40% of the world’s gross domestic product and more than a quarter of global trade.
The President considers the TPP one of the crown jewels of his “Asia Pivot” policy and a key part of his strategy to isolate China economically, since it is excluded from the treaty. But he ran into unexpected resistance from Congressional Democrats when he asked for fast-track authority, which would prevent members of Congress from adding amendments to the deal or filibuster the legislation. Democrats tend to be wary of free trade agreements, blaming them for job losses and eroding labor standards.
Democrats have also objected to the secrecy surrounding the negotiations, with members of Congress reportedly having to examine the treaty in a secure room, which can be entered only after all electronic devices have been surrendered. No staff is allowed to accompany the legislators and any notes taken are destroyed when they exit. Given the sensitivity of the treaty talks, the Obama administration says that any leaks could jeopardize the U.S. negotiating position.
Despite that secrecy, there are 28 government-appointed trade advisory committees working on the treaty, whose memberships are made up of industries that could be affected. Two Global Income Edge portfolio holdings, AT&T Corp and Verizon Communications, have representatives on the Information and Communications Technologies, Services and Electronic Commerce committee, which is working on the telecom aspects of the TPP.
While we don’t have access to the complete text of the treaty, based on information that has been leaked and a rough framework released by the government, we know that the TPP will include a section regarding telecommunications. Again, while the exact details aren’t known, that section is expected to include provisions which will allow for network access for telecom companies through interconnection and access to physical facilities.
That basically means that AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon (NYSE: VZ) would be able to establish operations in countries which sign on to the TPP, and telecoms already operating in those countries won’t be able to refuse access to critical infrastructure such as switching facilities. While both telecom giants have growing international businesses – Verizon operates in 150 countries and AT&T has a growing presence in Latin America – the TPP potentially opens the door to some of the most populous parts of the world for them and ensures an even playing field with local operators.
And while both companies would still have to invest heavily to tap into and grow their businesses in, say, Vietnam or Malaysia, there would effectively be nothing stopping them. They’ll also have an informational edge to boot, being able to plan ahead to such a market entry, since they’re helping the U.S. government negotiate the telecom section of the treaty. Talk about getting a leg up from the government, especially since they basically have access to better information then our own legislators.
With great businesses already, AT&T and Verizon are buys up to $38 and $59 respectively, regardless of whether or not they do choose to aggressive pursue those markets – which they probably will.
Still, approval of the TPP isn’t exactly a fait accompli just yet. While Senate Democrats were persuaded last week to take up debate on giving Obama fast-track authority, authorizing legislation hasn’t been passed yet. The legislative price of opening the issue up to debate was a separate bill to punish countries which manipulate their currencies to keep their exports cheap, so there’s a good chance that’s enough of a carrot for Congress to act.
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