Asia Investing Beyond China
China was once the world’s growth engine, but economic growth in the country is now running at its slowest pace in six years. The Chinese government learned some hard lessons in the Great Recession, such as not to rely on the developed world to buy everything you make. So it has been making over its economy to be more focused on domestic consumers. As a result, both industrial production and investment in the country has slowed markedly.
But China’s slow makeover is benefiting other countries on the Pacific Rim, as manufacturers, which looked to China for cheap labor, are finding better deals elsewhere. Vietnam particularly is luring many of those companies.
Vietnam is a young country demographically, with more than 60% of its 86 million people under the age of 35 and in their prime working years. The country also has a relatively modern and stable infrastructure, with more than 90% of the country having access to electricity. And in Vietnam, the average worker earns only about one-third to one-half what a Chinese worker earns.
That’s attracted a slew of manufacturers to the country, ranging from Ford and Toyota, which both now have plants in the country, to Intel and Samsung Electronics, which have chip fabrication facilities and assembly operations in Vietnam. Foreign investment in the country has risen from virtually nil a decade ago to about $5 billion annually over the past five years, with the Vietnamese government welcoming businesses of all sorts to the country.
All of that investment has helped drive strong economic growth in the country, with GDP up by more than 6% last year. The country’s economy is expected to grow by about 6.2% this year, even as the government slows its spending to avoid racking up a large national debt. That consistent growth, coupled with the government’s close attention to debt levels and its measures to enhance property rights, is a big reason by we think the country makes a great investment.
Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (NYSE: VNM) is the best way to tap into Vietnam’s attractive growth prospects while enjoying broad diversification. With an expense ratio of 0.70%, it covers every major sector of the Vietnamese economy while yielding 2.9%.
About 23% of the exchange-traded fund’s $480 million in assets is devoted to Vietnam’s financial sector, where earnings have been improving on a year-over-year basis thanks to shrinking bad debts and economic growth.
The Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, more commonly known as Vietcombank and the fund’s largest bank holding, consistently turns in earnings growth in the high single-digits thanks to its key role in the nation’s economy. It is one the main domestic banks operating the country’s international payments system and holds nearly 20% market share. It also extends and services several major global credit cards, which are becoming increasingly common in the country thanks to rising incomes and standards of living.
There’s also a sizable 20% allocation to the country’s real estate sector, which has taken off over the past 30 years as the country has transitioned from a poor country to one quickly approaching middle income. On top of that, despite being at least a nominally socialist country, the government has amended its real estate laws to allow full ownership rights to property holders.
The fund also has a 16% allocation to the country’s energy sector, holding several subsidiaries of PetroVietnam. The local state-owned energy company, it’s the country’s largest oil producer with operations in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, and is the second-largest power producer.
While it isn’t a monopoly, given its leading role in the nation’s energy sector it is benefiting from growing power demand thanks to all the manufacturers moving and the growing need for oil and gasoline.
Vietnam is just one of the countries rimming the Pacific Ocean that we think is an attractive investment opportunity. It’s also an excellent example of the how, while still a key player in the global economy, China isn’t the only fish in the sea.
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