Pity Canada’s energy producers. Just as crude oil prices appear to be stabilizing, the resource-rich province of Alberta delivers an electoral upset that hands the reins of power to a left-leaning political party with a strong green streak.

And while you’re at it, let’s take a moment to pity ourselves–the energy investors who could very well get kicked while we’re already down.

That’s because elections have consequences, as the old saying goes, and the Alberta stunner–the surprise victory in May by the once-marginal New Democratic Party (NDP) that we wrote about in last month’s issue–will certainly have consequences for the province’s oil and gas producers.

For those not up on Canadian politics, the provincial election saw the historic defeat of the center-right Progressive Conservative Party, which had ruled Alberta for 44 years.

The Tories went from holding a firm grip on power, with 70 of the Legislative Assembly’s 87 seats, to losing all but 10. The NDP jumped from four seats to 54, while the Liberals gained 16 seats, for a total of 21.

Equally amazing is the fact that the NDP’s substantial margin of victory came in what is otherwise perceived as Canada’s most conservative province.

Though the NDP also currently governs Manitoba and has previously formed governments in other provinces, its success at the national level is a relatively recent phenomenon.

In 2011, the NDP sidelined the center-left Liberal Party when it won the second-highest number of seats in the House of Commons, elevating it to the level of the Official Opposition for the first time in the party’s history.

So it’s not like the Alberta NDP was riding on huge coattails. Indeed, the party’s win in Alberta seems to have been somewhat of a fluke–the fortuitous timing of a snap election called amid the sort of budgetary and economic woes that tend to leave electorates pining for change.

The Waiting Is the Hardest Part

Admittedly, the title of this article is somewhat hyperbolic. Alberta’s latest legislative session, which will last just a few weeks, only began on Monday, and the province’s NDP government did announce three new bills, including one that follows through on its campaign pledge to raise corporate tax rates to 12% from 10%.

The new tax rate may bring Alberta in line with its provincial peers, but it also comes at a time when the energy sector was already facing significant challenges that have resulted in falling profits, huge cuts in capital expenditures, and mass layoffs.

But it’s the much-anticipated review of Alberta’s royalty regime that everyone was waiting to hear about. And the government has been largely mum on that front, though it plans to offer more details by the end of the summer.

Alberta’s current royalty rates range from 1% to 9% of a producer’s gross revenue, depending on the price of oil, until a project has recouped its initial cost of investment. Once that hurdle is cleared, royalties are then derived from net revenue in a range from 25% to 40%, again depending on the price of oil.

According to Bloomberg, royalties from the oil-and-gas sector accounted for about one-fifth of Alberta’s revenue in the current fiscal year, but are projected to plunge to just 7% of revenue in the next fiscal year.

Previously, Alberta Premier Rachel Notley had promised to propose a new royalty regime within six months of forming a new government. Among the possible changes is a structure that incentivizes upgrading and refining, not just extraction, with the hope of keeping more of the revenue from the crude oil value chain in province, while also spurring job creation.

But since prevailing at the polls, she’s demurred when pressed for details. In the absence of meaningful information, speculation necessarily steps in to fill the void.

Though the NDP was unlikely to make a new fan of conservative Canadian pundit Lorne Gunter, the Sun Media columnist did offer some interesting insights recently on intra-party squabbling, assuming his sources inside the new government are solid.

He says the caucus is already feuding over energy policy, with “so many rabid environmentalists” in the government that they couldn’t reach an agreement on policy prior to the opening of the legislative session.

As Gunter notes, their silence has implications not only for the sector and the province, but also for the national economy, since the resource space has been a key driver of growth.

But it’s entirely possible that reality will overtake ideology, especially now that the election is over. We’ve certainly seen that happen in the past with the prickly province of British Columbia.

Indeed, as my colleague Deon Vernooy observed in last week’s live web chat, “Regular reviews of royalties have taken place over the past 50 years and always create uncertainty among investors and energy companies alike. However, these industries are important for Alberta, and the outcomes are normally fairly reasonable to all parties.”

For her part, Notley did at least allow that she’ll “listen” if the findings that result from the government’s review of the royalty regime indicate that it’s a bad time to raise rates.

And if she won’t listen? Well, other provinces are already attempting to woo Alberta’s energy producers with a more welcoming environment.

According to the Financial Post, Newfoundland is set to announce a new royalty structure to speed offshore development. Meanwhile, neighboring Saskatchewan is touting the stability of its current royalty regime.

All too often, politicians take wealth creation for granted until capital moves elsewhere.

Dividend Champions: Portfolio Update

By Deon Vernooy

The financial news headlines over the past few days have focused on the outcome of the U.S Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Although no change in interest rate policy was announced after the meeting, the general expectation remains that official U.S. interest rates will be increased later this year.

In Canada, there is no expectation of an increase in policy rates during 2015, although longer-term interest rates have moved higher in sympathy with the movement in U.S. bond yields. Many dividend-paying companies, especially REITs and utilities have also felt the brunt of investors positioning themselves for a higher interest rate environment. We are looking carefully at some attractive opportunities that have emerged from the sell-off among these stocks with a view to deploy some of the cash that we still hold in the Dividend Champions Portfolio.

The main objective of the Dividend Champions Portfolio is to generate an attractive and growing income stream for investors. The current dividend yield on the portfolio is about 4%, and we expect payouts to grow between 5% and 8% per year.

The 29 companies included in the portfolio have all been selected with the expectation that they will contribute to the overall goal. However, we continue to monitor each company closely for any signs that it may not fulfil its role or whether another company might be able to do it better … much like a coach would be watching his team of football players.

Over the past few days, three of our Dividend Champions have made important announcements.

First up was Sun Life Financial Inc. (TSX: SLF, NYSE: SLF). The company announced the acquisition of a specialized real estate management company, Bentall Kennedy Group, for a cash payment of $560 million. Bentall is the 25^th-largest real estate manager in the world, with $27 billion of real estate assets under management.

The price Sun Life paid for this high-quality operation seems reasonable at a 10x EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization) multiple. Although not a large acquisition compared to the $26 billion market capitalization of Sun Life, it should be a nice complement to the firm’s existing portfolio of real estate operations.

North West Company Inc. (TSX: NWC, OTC: NWTUF), a food and general merchandise retailer with operations in rural areas of Canada, Alaska and the Caribbean, announced very good results for the first quarter. Earnings per share jumped by 23% year over year, supported by a firm increase in areas such as revenues, same-store sales and profit margins.

Somewhat surprisingly, the dividend was held unchanged from the previous year, at CAD0.29 per share.

Prospects have certainly improved for the business which has struggled for the past few years. The balance sheet remains sound, cash flow satisfactory, and with an attractive dividend yield of 4.6%, the company remains a solid holding in the Dividend Champions Portfolio.

Transcontinental Inc. (TSX: TCLa, OTC: TCLAF) is Canada’s largest printer, with operations in print and digital media, flexible packaging and publishing. The company announced second-quarter results that appeared pleasing, with adjusted earnings per share increasing by 14% compared to last year. And it also boosted the dividend by 6%.

While the results were to some extent distorted by acquisitions and disposals, the ongoing decline in revenues and profits from the existing marketing materials printing business was somewhat concerning.

The cash flow remains sound, and the debt level has been reduced from the previous year’s end.

Despite the positives, including the attractive dividend yield (now at 4.3%), the market did not appreciate the results and the stock dropped by more than 10% after the announcement. We plan to dig a bit deeper to make sure that the company still deserves its position in the Dividend Champions Portfolio.