Signs of a Turnaround
Portfolio Action Summary
- SunEdison (NYSE: SUNE) added to Aggressive Portfolio; buy below $20
- Scorpio Tankers (NYSE: STNG) buy limit increased from $9.50 to $12 in Aggressive Portfolio
Capital Products Partners (NASDAQ: CPLP) reported an 18% year-over-year increase in its second-quarter operating surplus, and a 6% improvement from the first quarter, thanks to the strongest fuel tanker spot charter rates in seven years. The fully covered dividend rose 0.9% from the first quarter’s payout as CPLP continued to target annual growth of 2-3%. But equity has now given up the entirety of its early-year rally, and is down 27% since April 15. That’s pushed the current annualized yield to 13%. Buy #13 Best Buy CPLP below $10.
Delek Logistics Partners (NYSE: DKL) reported a 12% decline in distributable cash flow year-over-year, as the decline in its marketing business from uncommonly strong results a year ago and higher maintenance spending more than offset the effect of sponsor dropdowns and other growth initiatives. Still, the refinery logistics MLP showed 1.5x coverage for a distribution it raised 16% year-over-year, and reaffirmed its commitment to growing the payout 15% annually. The yield is up to an annualized 5.5% after a 15% pullback in the unit price from the July high, though it remains up 13% year-to-date. Buy #6 Best Buy DKL below $52.
DHT Holdings (NYSE: DHT) paid out a second-quarter dividend of 15 cents a share, representing 63% of quarterly net income and in line with a new policy promising to pay out at least 60% of adjusted earnings. The oil tanker operator plans to spend the balance of the cash flow on paying down debt. Second-quarter revenue more than quadrupled year-over-year, with DHT retaining 73% of the total as EBITDA and 33% as net income. Based on the payouts for the last two quarters, the annualized yield is up to 8% now that the stock has dropped 16% since July 22, the day DHT announced its dividend policy. Buy #10 Best Buy DHT below $10.
Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) reported a 54% year-over-year increase in distributable cash flow, largely as a result of increased incentive distribution rights receipts from its Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) affiliate after its merger with Regency. The surge helped distribution coverage improve to 1.19x even as ETE raise its per-unit payout 39% year-over-year, for a current yield of 3.4%. The partnership continued to make incremental progress on the Lake Charles LNG terminal, buying the land beneath the project and management adopted a noticeable warmer tone toward its counterparts at Williams (NYSE: WMB) without saying anything of substance about its pursuit of a merger with that rival. The unit price remains down 13% from record hit in June but is up 12% since Aug. 7 and 7% year-to-date. Buy #2 Best Buy ETE below $75.
Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) reported a decline of 31% in distributable cash flow per common unit, largely as a result of increasing payments to its general partner. The total was still enough to provide a diminished 1.03x coverage on a distribution increased 8.4% year-over-year, for a current annualized yield of 8.2%. The unit price remains down 22% year-to-date but has bounced 9% since Aug. 5. ETP also announced a $1.9 billion dropdown of retail and marketing assets to its Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) affiliate, committed to selling the rest of that business to SUN by the end of next year and exchanged its general partner interests in SUN for ETP units previously held by ETE. Buy ETP below $70.
Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) posted a 6% year-over-year gain in the second quarter’s distributable cash flow, while DCF per common unit slipped 3%. That still provided ample coverage of 1.3% on a distribution increased 5.6% year-over-year, in line with the pace before the energy slump. The current annualized yield is at 5.1% following the 18% year-to-date decline in the unit price, even after it’s rebounded 14% since Aug. 6. Buy #3 Best Buy EPD below $42.50.
EQT (NYSE: EQT) posted a 45% year-over-year drop in quarterly operating cash flow, as the 33% increase in its gas production volumes was more than offset by the 53% decline in the average selling price. The driller finished the quarter with some $2 billion in cash, some of which it hopes to spend on filling out its Marcellus core position if and when the upstream sector offers any bargains. After declining 21% between mid-May and late July, the stock has since bounced 8%. Buy #8 Best Buy EQT below $100.
EQT GP Holdings (NYSE: EQGP) paid out the first dividend since EQT offered its general partner interest in midstream affiliate EQT Midstream Partners to the public in May. On a pro-rated basis the payout was consistent with an annual yield of 1.2%. The dividend is expected to grow more than 40% annually through 2017 based as EQGP leverages the growth at EQM. Though EQT retains a 90% stake in EQGP, management has considered the tax implications of an outright sale of its midstream interests and voiced frustration with EQT’s share price, speculating that it’s been subject to a conglomerate discount. EQGP’s price is traded as high as a 5% above its first post-IPO close in mid-July but has since retreated 13%. Buy EQGP below $33.
EQT Midstream Partners (NYSE: EQM) increased its second-quarter distribution 23% year-over-year, continuing the forecast pattern of quarterly hikes by 3 cents per unit. The coverage ratio was a super-secure 1.82x, backed by a 43% jump in operating income as EQM benefited from stronger gathering and transmission volumes as a result of continued production gains by EQT and other customers. EQM also announced plans to spend $250 million on a new header pipeline serving Range Resources. The yield is up to 3.3% now that the unit price is down 12% since late April. Buy #9 Best Buy EQM below $100.
EuroNav (NYSE: EURN) posted second-quarter EBITDA of $142 million, up from $22 million a year ago. The average daily spot charter rate for its VLCC crude tankers was $55,000 during the quarter, up from $21,000 a year earlier. The leading oil tanker operator is expected to announce its interim semiannual dividend payable in September on Aug. 20, and is committed to paying out 80% of net annual after-tax income. Extrapolating the results from the last two quarters would suggest an annual dividend of $1.80 a share, representing a projected yield of 12.7% now that the stock has pulled back 12% over the last four weeks. Buy #12 Best Buy EURN below $18.
Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP) reported a 14% increase in distributable cash flow, which translated into 1.3x coverage on a distribution increased 16% year-over-year. The fuel and crude shipper remains committed to increasing its per-unit payout 15% this year and at least 10% in 2016. The unit price remains down 14% year-to-date but is up 13% since hitting its 2015 low on Aug. 6. Buy #1 Best Buy MMP below $90.
Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC) reported a 2% dip in second-quarter operating income from a year ago, as gains in pipeline and retail profits nearly offset a slightly lower refining margin. The big refiner hiked its dividend 28% for a prospective annualized yield of 2.4% at the current price. During the second quarter it returned $544 million (amounting to nearly 2% of the current market cap) to shareholders via dividends and (primarily) share repurchases. The stock is up 23% year-to-date. Buy #4 Best Buy MPC below $70.
Scorpio Tankers (NYSE: STNG) reported second-quarter operating income of $79 million, swinging from a loss of $1 million a year ago. The fast-growing fuel tanker operator’s average daily charter rate rose 84% year-over-year. The quarterly dividend representing 39% of net income works out to a current annualized yield of 4.8%. The stock is down 10% from its July high but still up 20% year-to-date. Buy #11 Best Buy STNG below the increased limit of $12.
UGI (NYSE: UGI) reported an 11% decline in operating income year-over-year, as relatively warmer, rainier weather weighed on propane distribution profits in the U.S. as well as Europe. The warmth also caused utility gas volumes to decline, though that was tempered by additions of new customers. The midstream business also saw a profit drop but continued to develop lucrative growth projects continued to star. The dividend yields 2.5% based on a share price still down 3% year-to-date but up 16% from March lows induced by worries over rising interest rates, which subsequently stalled. Buy #7 Best Buy UGI below $45.
Western Refining (NYSE: WNR) reported a 7% year-over-year rise in quarterly net income excluding special items, and paid out a quarterly dividend of 34 cents a share. That projects to an annualized yield of 2.8% at the current share price, though Western has also paid out special dividends in the recent past. The southwestern refiner has returned $118 million to shareholders so far this year including the most recent dividend, or 2.5% of its current market cap. The stock is up 30% year-to-date and just off last week’s record high. Buy #5 Best Buy WNR below $57.
Stock Talk
Doug Hayes
It seems that crude pipeline MLP’s have been overbuilding in anticipation of the 2011-2014 growth rate in production which, in turn, has led to a situation in which they will have to renegotiate contracts when there are more pipes than crude needing to be transported. Are the natural gas pipelines headed in the same direction?
Igor Greenwald
I’m not sure that even crude pipelines are, frankly, overbuilt. All we have to go on that are PAA’s comments, and it’s uniquely vulnerable as the leading crude gatherer and shipper, with a business that was slipping a year ago already. We know that crude production growth will not be there in 2015-16, but I doubt that shale will continue to decline beyond that time frame while global demand keeps growing, as I expect it to. As for natural gas, there’s going to be huge demand for Northeast-to-Gulf transport given not only the LNG projects that will launch over next couple of years but also the petrochemical buildout on the Gulf seeking to take advantage of low-cost U.S. gas. So I just don’t see the significant downside. And note that the downside in crude shipping is so (in)significant that PAA may not raise a distribution yielding in the vicinity of 8% for a year, in the worst-case scenario it recently previewed.
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ThomasW
i would like to know what you think of mlp-sunoco simble SUN
Igor Greenwald
It’s come in a lot but will not perform well in the environment of rising gas prices, which I think is coming. And every time it perks up a bit Energy Transfer will cause SUN to sell more equity to support asset dropdowns from ETP and boost its own distribution rights.
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