Canadians Make a Run for the Border
If you live in the United States, odds are you find the recovery since the Great Recession to be distinctly underwhelming.
After all, the growth we’ve experienced since the downturn has been anemic at best and well below the long-term average of 3% annually.
And if economists are right, it’s not going to get much better anytime soon. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to hover around 2.5% through 2017. Perhaps that’s the best we can hope for in this so-called “new normal.”
But it’s all about perspective. Canada is still working through the oil shock, and right now the consensus forecast suggests that the best our neighbor to the north can hope for is annual growth of around 2% over the next two years.
So from a Canadian standpoint, the lackluster numbers the United States is putting up represent opportunity. And Canadian executives are going where the growth is.
According to Bloomberg, Canadian firms have gone on a record shopping spree this year, with the total value of cross-border deals at $11.7 billion, up 48% from last year. Utility assets, in particular, have been in the crosshairs of Canadian acquirers.
Although overall U.S. growth doesn’t offer much to get excited about, some regions of the country are experiencing stronger growth than others. And such details have not escaped the Canadians’ attention.
Even in slower-growing U.S. regions, regulatory momentum toward renewable energy means there is strong growth potential from investing in assets that generate electricity from cleaner-burning natural gas or renewables.
Beyond these considerations, U.S. regulators tend to allow greater returns than their Canadian counterparts.
The biggest deal on deck (more on that below) is straight out of the playbook of Canadian utility giant and Dividend Champion Fortis Inc. (TSX: FTS, OTC: FRTSF), which acquired the Arizona-based electric utility UNS Energy Corp. for $4.3 billion in August 2014.
Not only did the deal significantly expand Fortis’ s foothold in Canada’s faster-growing neighbor, it also was a substantial addition to the firm’s portfolio of regulated utility assets. The reliable cash flows generated by these assets not only help produce steady earnings, they also flow through to a growing dividend.
Since the UNS acquisition closed last year, Fortis has boosted its quarterly payout 17.2%, to C$0.375 per share (C$1.50 annualized). And analysts forecast further dividend growth ahead.
With a forward yield of 3.9%, Fortis is a Buy below US$31/C$40.
M&A: Play by Play
Not to be outdone, last month Canadian power producer Emera Inc. (TSX: EMA, OTC: EMRAF) announced its plan to acquire Florida-based Teco Energy Inc. in a $6.5 billion all-cash deal that also includes the assumption of about $3.9 billion in debt.
Given the size of the transaction relative to Emera’s current market cap of $4.9 billion, it should be clear that this will be an absolutely transformative deal. Assuming Emera’s bid can clear all the regulatory hurdles that precede a successful close, about 71% of its earnings will be derived from its U.S. operations, up from less than half currently.
The majority of Teco’s regulated utilities operate in Florida, a state where utilities enjoy friendly relations with regulators and whose economy is enjoying above-average growth compared to the rest of the country. Those characteristics should help drive Emera’s long-term dividend growth.
Management is currently targeting dividend growth of 8% annually through 2019, and it says the acquisition should help sustain dividend growth at that pace beyond then.
Emera increased its quarterly dividend 7.3% annually over the past five years, for a current payout of C$0.475 (C$1.90 annualized) and a forward yield of 4.4%.
Although Emera is not in any of our portfolios or on our formal watch list, we’ll be monitoring its progress toward closing this deal.
In the weeks that followed Emera’s announcement, a flurry of cross-border deals were also announced in the merchant power arena. There aren’t a lot of merchant assets available in Canada, so that forces the country’s independent power producers to turn to the United States for new growth regardless of the operating environment up north.
Dividend Champion TransCanada Corp. (TSX: TRP, NYSE: TRP) and Legacy Conservative Holding Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, NYSE: BEP) both inked separate deals to acquire unregulated utility assets from Talen Energy Corp., the merchant generator spun off last year from Pennsylvania-based utility PPL Corp.
TransCanada plans to acquire a 778 megawatt natural gas-fired power plant in Pennsylvania from Talen for $654 million.
Although TransCanada is primarily known as a pipeline company, its power-generation segment accounted for nearly 37% of 2014 revenue.
In addition to its extensive pipeline infrastructure, TransCanada owns or has stakes in assets that generate 10,900 megawatts of power, and its U.S. portfolio will account for more than 40% of that total once it closes the deal in early 2016.
This latest acquisition will sell power into the PJM market, the largest wholesale power market in North America, encompassing the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region and parts of the Midwest.
The power plant’s proximity to the Marcellus formation means it will also benefit from easy access to the prolific shale energy company’s abundance of cheap natural gas.
With a forward yield of 4.6%, TransCanada is a Buy below US$35/C$46 in our Dividend Champions Portfolio.
Meanwhile, Brookfield Renewable plans to acquire two hydroelectric power plants in Pennsylvania from Talen for $860 million.
The two facilities have a combined generating capacity of 292 megawatts, or about 4.2% of Brookfield’s current 7,000 megawatt total. Both sell their power into the PJM market.
With a forward yield of nearly 6%, Brookfield Renewable remains a Buy below US$35 in our Legacy Conservative Holdings.
Finally, AltaGas Ltd. (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF) plans to acquire GWF Energy Holdings LLC, which owns three gas-fired power plants in California, for $642 million.
The cash flows generated by these unregulated power plants are supported by long-term power purchase agreements with Pacific Gas and Electric Co. These contracts will be in place through 2022.
The $3.8 billion company will be funding its purchase with a combination of equity and debt, including a secondary offering of 8.8 million common shares.
With a forward yield of 5.5%, AltaGas is now a Buy below US$35 in our Legacy Conservative Holdings.
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