Trade Agreement Should Boost Our Portfolios
After seven years of wrangling over terms, definitions and protocols, twelve countries surrounding the Pacific Ocean announced last month that they had finally reached an agreement on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP).
Governing trade relations between the United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Brunei, Vietnam, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore, the deal will cover roughly 40% of global trade with a value of about $30 trillion, so it’s a pretty big deal. It also may grow with six more countries having expressed an interest in joining the trade pact.
The deal has been controversial here in the United States, with many lawmakers concerned that it will have relatively little economic benefit for our country and could actually help send more jobs overseas. That’s a big part of why Congress built a 90-day cooling off period in the fast track authority it granted the President to negotiate and implement the TPP this summer. With 30 chapters and running to more than 2,000 pages, Congress will need every one of those days to actually wade through it.
While there is still some risk that the deal might not get Congressional approval here in the U.S., despite the muted economic impact the pact would give us some important political advantages in the Asia-Pacific region. By giving the other participating countries easier access to the U.S. markets, particularly as Chinese demand for commodities has been cooling, we can help smooth out any potential economic swings as the Chinese economy cools. At the same time, by reducing the economic dependence on China, we’re securing more geopolitical sway for ourselves.
Macroeconomic and geopolitical issues aside, the TPP could have real benefits for individual companies in our portfolios.
Like Congress, I haven’t managed to wade through the complete text of the TPP yet, either. But based on the details we do know, pharmaceutical companies like GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK), Merck (NYSE: MRK) and Novartis (NYSE: NVS) will be major beneficiaries of the deal, even if they’re not actually based in one of the TPP countries. As long as they hold patents in the U.S., they’ll be able to take advantage of extended patent protections for name-brand drugs, holding off generic competition for longer in member countries. And companies which make biologic drugs, including Glaxo and Novartis, will also enjoy 12 years of data exclusivity, which also slows down the production of generic versions of those drugs.
Telecom giants AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon (NYSE: VZ) could also get a leg up from deal, since they will be able to establish operations in countries which sign on to the TPP. Telecoms already operating in those countries won’t be able to refuse access to critical infrastructure such as switching facilities. So while both companies would still have to invest heavily to tap into and grow their businesses in those countries, there would effectively be nothing stopping them. With both telecoms sporting growing international businesses – Verizon operates in 150 countries and AT&T has a growing presence in Latin America – the TPP potentially opens the door to some of the most populous parts of the world and creates a level playing field with local operators.
Financial companies like Australian Westpac Banking Corp (NYSE: WBK) will also find themselves with broader access to markets in participating countries. Foreign banks in Vietnam have been allowed to open only one office per province, while Malaysia bars foreign lenders from opening up with 1.5 kilometers of a local bank branch. The TPP will break those barriers down, forcing both local and foreign banks to operate under a uniform set of regulations.
Those are just a few examples of how the TPP can boost our portfolios, assuming it is ratified by Congress, and just one of themes we’re tracking in the coming months. And be sure to read our next issue of Global Income Edge, where we’re going to be unveiling some new additions to our portfolios.
Portfolio Updates
While Macquarie Infrastructure Co’s (NYSE: MIC) third quarter earnings per share of $0.13 missed analyst estimates by a dime, investors have taken the news with a fair degree of equanimity with shares essentially flat since the announcement. Revenue, up by 7% year-over-year to $415.7 million, also missed by just over $10 million.
While earnings and revenue came up short of estimates, free cash flow per share totaled $1.41 in the quarter, well ahead of the $1.31 analysts expected. Thanks to stronger than expected cash flow growth, Macquarie boosted its quarterly payout form $1.11 in the prior period to $1.13, which also helped soften the blow of weaker than expected earnings. Management said it remains on track for dividend growth of 14% this year.
Macquarie Infrastructure Corp remains a buy on dips below $77.
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