Party on, Diageo!
Some investors aren’t entirely comfortable with sin stocks, especially as consumers become more health-conscious. But the simple fact is they’re dependable money makers regardless of the economy. The global spirits industry, including makers of beer, wine and liquor, are also increasing their sales despite slowing consumption.
One reason is the wave of consolidation over the past several years, with the most recent example Anheuser-Busch InBev’s deal to buy competitor SABMiller for $107 billion. Although both brewers have a strong presence in the Latin American market and will have near-monopoly control in the region once the deal is done, SABMiller also gets about 34% of its revenue from Africa, which means the combined entity will wet whistles around the globe.
The merger of Grand Metropolitan and Guinness in 1997 is how our portfolio holding, Diageo PLC, became a truly global company itself, marrying one of my favorite beers with a major distillery. Since then, Diageo has acquired distilleries and brewers in India, Africa, South America and Europe, becoming the largest distiller in the world and a leading maker of beer and wine.
Iconic Brands
It still has that urge to merge, though over the past year it has focused more on growing its stake in other businesses it has interests in rather than making outright purchases. Earlier this year, it bought out the remaining 50% interest in United National Breweries, which makes traditional sorghum beer in South Africa. That by no means precludes big purchases, though, and with the wave of industry consolidation, such a move is probably likely.
Diageo (NYSE: DEO) now owns 14 of the top 100 distilled spirits brands in the world, including Gordon’s gin, Johnnie Walker scotch, and Smirnoff vodka, with spirits accounting for about three-quarters of sales. Beer generates about 20% of revenue, with brands ranging from the iconic Guinness to Kenya’s national beer brand Tusker and the Jamaican Red Stripe. The remainder of revenue comes from wine, including Sterling Vineyards and Rosenblum Cellars.
So although it might not pay the biggest dividend in the world with a yield just shy of 4%, it has the global heft and product diversity to sustain its payout in good times and in bad. Not only is its yield sustainable, it has grown at an annualized 7.6% over the past five years thanks to growing sales, especially in emerging markets.
IWSR, which tracks sales volume and value data for the global alcoholic beverage industry, expects spirits consumption to grow at 3% annually over the next three years, with the Asia-Pacific region driving more than two-thirds of that.
Wine consumption is expected to grow only by about 1%, with most of that increase coming from developed markets. Beer consumption, on the other hand, is likely to remain relatively flat, with growing consumption of premium craft beers from small breweries being offset by slow to slightly declining sales for larger commercial beers like Budweiser and Miller.
Apple-Flavored Whiskey?
Diageo believes that it can show stronger than global average growth in all three categories by introducing new brands and making incremental changes in existing brands. It has, in fact, executed that strategy well for several years now by launching flavored versions of premium spirits that have been hits with younger drinkers. That includes the recent introduction of apple-flavored Crown Royal whiskey and herb-and-fruit-flavored beers in various markets.
That strategy helped drive fairly steady revenue and earnings growth both year-over-year and over the long term. For its most recent fiscal year that ended in June, revenue was up 5.4% compared to the prior year while earnings per share were up 5.9% thanks to margin growth. Over the past decade, sales grew an average of 4.9%, while earnings per share did an even better 7.4%. An even more attractive feature of the company’s growth is that it accelerates during recessions—revenue shot up 14.9% in 2009, with earnings up 10.4%— as consumers drown their sorrows.
Analysts think that Diageo’s earnings will decline slightly in its current fiscal year, 2016. That’s mostly due to currency headwinds because the company reports in British pounds.
However, Diageo is still expected to boost its dividend as it has each year for nearly two decades now. Granted, that increase probably won’t be as large given the company’s payout ratio is currently about 65%, but the dividend will rise. To be clear, there has been some fluctuation in what we American investors collect in dividends because of exchange rates, but in pounds the payout has risen each year.
With a strong presence on every continent, which has allowed the company to buck the trend of slowing alcohol consumption growth, Diageo will continue to expand both its sales and earnings in the years to come. For income investors, that translates to a growing dividend, and we should all drink to that.With a growing dividend, Diageo PLC is a buy under $130.
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