I blew it. MLP Profits portfolio recommendations produced anything but profits in 2015, averaging a loss of 21.6% inclusive of distributions.

This may sound somewhat more palatable than the 32.6% decline suffered by the Alerian MLP Index last year, also on a total-return basis.

I take no credit for that spread. It helped somewhat to be able to venture beyond the midstream MLPs into healthier energy sectors such as refining and shipping. Our losses were also diluted by the positions dropped early in the year or added late, and in a couple of cases by partial sell recommendations locking in gains that otherwise would have proven fleeting.

It’s the same calculation method we’ve used in the past. But, in a departure from recent years, I don’t have the sense that we outperformed the market in 2015, even if the numbers might suggest otherwise. There simply was too much Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) and Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP)  among our Best Buys, and not enough CVR Refining (NYSE: CVRR) or Teekay Tankers (NYSE: TNK).

This is galling, because I hadn’t shied away from signs that MLPs were overhyped and excessively loved in 2013 and 2014.

Unless some of this trend-following bullishness is dissipated over time, a peak and then the unwind of the reflexive buying could some sooner than later. At that point, the conviction of the recent buyers … could be tested like it hasn’t been since 2008. I fear they’re not prepared for what comes next.

I wrote that in July 2014. In retrospect, it was foolish to expect that the feverish marketing of MLPs as the answer to every income investor’s hopes could be unwound with nothing worse than the correction that took place that fall.

I was lulled into costly complacency by the industry’s self-serving assurances of its resilience to short-term commodity price swings, by the crude rebound during the first half of 2015 and by the fact that our portfolio continued to outperform, eking out a tiny year-to-date gain through June.

But mostly we (and, by extension, you) were victimized by an inertia that’s often distinguishable from patience only with the benefit of hindsight. Energy pipelines are an industry that requires a long-term perspective. U.S. pipelines remain tremendously valuable assets producing plenty of cash flow now,  with the potential for more down the road. And this is precisely the sort of long-term thinking that persuaded me not to rock the boat with Sell recommendations last summer, when that advice would have been most helpful.

We’re in a very different situation now. Investor complacency has given way to panic and market prices that, I believe, are more than fully pricing in the worst-case scenario.

But we also still haven’t found anything that looks like a bottom, with the Alerian now down 17% to a new six-year low and many of the tanker plays that buoyed the portfolio last year losing more than a third of their value over the last two terrible weeks.

We can only control our risk and our emotions, not the course of events or the markets’ responses. And we can also learn from our mistakes and those of others. My hope is that this issue and those that follow persuades you that we’ve done just that.

Now let’s give 2015 the pauper’s funeral it has so richly deserved. The Conservative Portfolio is by far our smallest but still ended up looking like it had three picks too many, with Plains All American (NYSE: PAA) cut in half over its outsized exposure to diminished crude gathering and trading profits.

TransCanada (NYSE: TRP) and Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE) suffered from excessive northern exposure as Canada’s energy flows slowed and the depreciating Canadian dollar took its toll.

Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP) outperformed thanks to its financial conservatism and predominant reliance on refined fuel shipments. Spectra Energy Partners (NYSE: SEP) was shielded by its long-term and demand-driven natural gas transmission contracts. 

The Growth Portfolio was doomed by the outsized losses of the general partners leveraged to industry growth, with the Targas and the Energy Transfers also hurt because large gas gatherers and processors are already starting to feel the effects of the slowdown in domestic energy production.

Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) earned its dunce’s cap with a 75% dividend cut as a plunging share price and heavy debt load closed other avenues for financing capital spending.

Holly Energy Partners (NYSE: HEP) and the other two refinery logistics picks outperformed, and rapid grower Shell Midstream Partners (NYSE: SHLX) refused to crack as well.

We recommended taking partial profits on MarkWest Energy Partners (NYSE: MWE) and Williams (NYSE: WMB) immediately following news of merger interest, and that advice proved sound. 

In the Aggressive basket, an ill-timed dalliance with SunEdison (NYSE: SUNE), the keelhauling of Navios Maritime Partners (NYSE: NMM) before and after its announcement of a distribution cut and misplaced faith in the likes of EnLink Midstream (NYSE: ENLC) and a leveraged exchange-traded note offset the positive contributions of Teekay, CVR, Western Refining (NYSE: WNR) and Cedar Fair (NYSE: FUN).      

We dodged big losses in Memorial Production Partners (NASDAQ: MEMP) and Vanguard Natural Resources (NYSE: VNR), which are now down 89% and 87% respectively in the 11 months since we recommended dumping them.