Global Banks on the Rebound

Global bank stocks are rising. They make up the majority of our Aggressive Portfolio and have largely been in the red since last August’s first China sell-off. But that has started to change, with recent double-digit increases in most of our financial holdings.

Given the improvement we’re optimistic for these holdings’ prospects. Still, recent bouts of market volatility have hit financial stocks hard, so many will continue to have a Hold rating.

Since the beginning of the year, we have argued that the sell-offs were overdone due to fear. Recent earnings reports seem to bear that out, as several of our holdings remained profitable right through the worst of the global sell-off, presenting a buying opportunity.

roundup graphicFor example, in the last month in Europe, banks such as Banco Santander (NYSE: SAN) were up 16%, and even analysts from white-shoe investment banks confirmed our belief that both the stock and the sector were oversold.

Of course, we have long believed the bank’s new management is making the right decisions to deliver on a goal to “grow earnings per share and attain double digit growth by 2018,” as well as deliver a return on “tangible” equity of 13% in the same year. Considering how much the firm was oversold, we’re ready to show some conviction as well.

With a dividend yield of 4.87%, Banco Santander is a Buy up to $10.

Of course, we weren’t at all surprised when UBS Group AG (NYSE: UBS) jumped almost 11% in the last few weeks. Earlier this year we had enthusiastically added the bank to our portfolio before placing the stock on Hold in response to the market rout in financials.

We said that UBS was one of the few European banks to undergo a major restructuring like its American cousins, putting the bank in a strong position to grow earnings faster than its peers as the global economy improves. And the global bank has been formidable, delivering strong returns in a variety of market conditions.

On Feb. 2, UBS Group reported 2015 profits of $6.2 billion dollars, a 79% increase over 2014. Plus, adjusted profit before tax more than doubled to $5.6 billion, while delivering a tangible equity of almost 14%, topping the bank’s target of 10%.

In the last quarter, however, profits were down for its wealth management division, the largest in the world, as well as for its investment banking division, reflecting the weak stock market earlier this year.

Nevertheless, UBS Group is one of the world’s best-capitalized banks and can ride out almost any market storm. The firm grew its wealth management business at 8% per year on average in one of the toughest global markets, so UBS should beat peers as the global economy improves. That’s worth banking on.

With a dividend yield of 3.56%, UBS Group is a Buy up to $25.

Meanwhile, AllianceBernstein (NYSE: AB) delivered a whopping share price gain of 27% over the last 30 days because investors finally recognized that this is a premiere asset manager that stays strong during global sell-offs.

AllianceBernstein reported $467.4 billion in assets under management as of Dec. 31, down 1.4% from a year earlier but up 1% from Sept. 30.

Peter S. Kraus, AllianceBernstein’s chairman and CEO, said that declining global markets, concerns over growth in China and other emerging markets, plunging oil prices and volatility in the credit markets just got worse from the third quarter to the fourth. That depressed the firm’s growth, revenue and assets under management.

“Nonetheless, we managed to finish 2015 with total net inflows of $3.2 billion—our second consecutive net flow positive year,” Kraus said.

With a strong 9.21% dividend, AllianceBernstein is a Buy up to $30.

Moving on to our emerging markets holdings, shares of Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK) and Banco Bradesco (NYSE: BBD) gained 14% and 32%, respectively, though given bank losses they’re still not completely in the black in our portfolio. But they’re getting there.

Banco Bradesco benefited from the Brazilian government’s moves to weed out corruption and support the economy. Westpac Banking, according to our proprietary return on equity analysis, also exhibited strong ROEs over the last four quarters, ranging between 3.59% and 4% on net profit margins of nearly 40%. Its dividend coverage ratio is a strong 1.8 times earnings. Nevertheless, continued uncertainty over the timing of the recovery in emerging markets such as Asia and Latin America calls for a cautious approach.

Hold Westpac Banking and Banco Bradesco.

Meanwhile, HSBC (NYSE: HSBC), which posted significant losses last quarter due to its exposure to Asia, was the one bank holding whose shares haven’t risen.

In the final three months of last year, HSBC reported a pre-tax loss of $858 million compared with a profit in the fourth quarter of 2014. For the full-year, pre-tax profit was flat, up just 1% to $18.9 billion.

HSBC is a well-diversified bank, with almost half of its revenue coming from Europe and North America, where growth is expected to continue. Its Asia business, though, constitutes almost 40% and could suffer setbacks if the region’s economies worsen.

Even though management defiantly maintained its dividend policy, which the consensus estimates at 52 cents for the next quarter, there are still fears of a potential dividend cut.

Hold HSBC.

 

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