How much would it matter to the Canadian economy and government revenues if auto production sinks? According to Ottawa-based Informetrica, motor vehicle exports from Canada were worth CAD52.3 billion, almost all of which were to the US, and parts exports were worth CAD35.1 billion in 2007.

For every CAD1 billion drop in motor vehicle exports starting in 2009, Informetrica concluded governments in Canada would lose about CAD380 million a year, on average, over five years. The current account balance would fall by about the same amount. The number of unemployed would rise by 3,000 a year for the next five years.

A CAD1 billion drop in parts exports would have more severe effects, costing governments an average of CAD465 million a year, and putting about 4,000 people a year out of work.

Regionally, Ontario is hurt the most, but Quebec isn’t far behind. The effects could be mitigated by government measures. According to Carl Sonnen of Informetrica, government officials are “right to be concerned” about the fate of The Big Three North American automakers.