Lucky Sevens

We’re now into the second half of May, and anyone waiting for a significant pullback by MLPs following their rousing springtime rally is still waiting.

It’s hard to bet against energy pipelines currently yielding almost 8% in the aggregate while oil prices set their own six-month highs, because stronger crude helps even the processors focused on natural gas, in a couple of ways.

First, it’s encouraging the healthiest shale producers to drill and complete more wells, which is essential for maintaining the volumes of natural gas extracted alongside the oil.

Second, more expensive crude is boosting the price of the closely linked natural gas liquids, boosting the bottom line of processors with payment-in-kind arrangements.

We remain most interested in the “story stocks” that remain deeply discounted for idiosyncratic reasons but exposed to the improved operating environment.

Hence the latest update on drama queens Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) and Williams (NYSE: WMB), which are no closer to resolving their conflict over merger terms except insofar as the deadline for completing the deal nears – it’s now just six weeks away. The odds of a successful merger have been heavily discounted and Williams’ legal claims look very legitimate from the wrong end of the law bar, so we’re raising our buy limit on WMB while continuing to count on further near-term gains by ETE.

Headline risk has also depressed the price of TerraForm Power (NASDAQ: TERP) as the renewables yieldcos seeks to extricate itself from the bankruptcy of sponsor SunEdison. Expect SunEdison’s  controlling stake in TERP to eventually be sold, and for the share price to lift once that happens.

The bad news for Archrock (NYSE: AROC) is that compression demand is dropping with the current domestic energy output rather than growing in line with revived drilling plans, forcing its affiliated MLP Archrock Partners (NYSE: APLP) to cut its distribution in half in order to stay in its creditors’ good graces. APLP is still earning enough to fully cover the old payout, but could not be sure how much longer that would be the case. And its general partner AROC, which has opted to forego its incentive distribution rights until the outlook improves, has been hit much harder than the MLP, in a shortsighted over-reaction.

As for New Buys, we’ve found one with a good yield, strong dividend coverage and excellent growth prospects. It’s not an MLP, but throws off a pretty stable income stream from a unique and attractive mix of businesses with high competitive barriers. That’s a big plus since credit markets continue to support a wide variety of growth projects.

 

Portfolio Update

  • Macquarie Infrastructure (NYSE: MIC) added to Growth Portfolio; buy below $80
  • Archrock (NYSE: AROC) upgraded to a Buy below $9 in Aggressive Portfolio
  • Williams (NYSE: WMB) buy limit increased to $23 in Aggressive Portfolio

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