Agtech Feeding the Masses
Even as the global demand for food grows, the number of farmers and acreage under cultivation falls. Between 2007 and 2012, the latest period for which data is available, the number of farms fell 4.3% to 2.1 million. Over the same period the amount of acreage farmed fell from 922 million to 915 million. The fact that demand is growing but farms are shrinking seems counterintuitive.
Farming is simply more efficient, and one company that is at the forefront of the agricultural technology revolution and has surged in the last two years is Trimble Navigation (NSDQ: TRMB).
Trimble designs systems that coordinate everything from construction to deliveries, using global positioning, laser, optical and inertial technologies. Some real-world examples of Trimble’s work are systems that track, schedule and dispatch long-haul trucks, or systems that help civil engineers site and develop projects. You’ll find Trimble’s technologies at work in the construction, utilities and transportation sectors, just to name a few.
But I find Trimble’s work in agriculture the most compelling part of the business. The company’s systems allow farmers to map their fields, sow seed and apply fertilizer with greater precision and monitor and control irrigation systems.
The Efficiency Edge
Just as factories are being automated, so are farms. The advent of the global positioning system has allowed for fully automated farm machinery, such as self-driving tractors that can operate autonomously without damaging crops. New sensors and software let farmers target those areas needing less fertilizer or more water with uncanny precision. Drones can now monitor crop performance and keep an eye out for pests.
Trimble also has developed both assisted and automated steering technology that, by integrating both GPS and onboard sensors, can detect a tractor’s precise location and compensate for irregularities in terrain. That helps farmers consistently sow seed and apply fertilizer without missing some areas or over-treating others.
All of that adds up to more efficiently run farms that have more consistent production with lower input costs. That means more food for us and bigger profits for farmers.
Agtech accounted for about 15% of Trimble’s revenue last year, but that number fluctuates every year. Implementing these types of technologies on a farm carries real costs, and farmers are more likely to invest in agtech in flush years. Agricultural commodity prices have been declining steadily for the better part of five years now, so it’s no surprise that spending on agtech also dropped.
Sector Turnaround
But institutional and private equity investors started betting on a turnaround recently. Data from AgFunder, an online platform that pairs agtech companies with big investors, shows that the amount of money flowing into agtech ventures has been growing for two years. In fact, the amount of money raised in the agtech sector last year was more than double 2014’s total, as investors poured their cash into farm drones and robotics, biologics and precision agriculture technologies.
Clearly, as investors realize this is the future of farming, interest in agtech grows.
On the one hand, Trimble’s diversification is a big advantage when farmers aren’t spending much. Even as agricultural commodity prices fell over the past five years, Trimble’s revenue averaged better than 12% growth, while profits rose an average of 2.3% annually. When farmers are flush, you can expect stronger growth.
In the meantime, though, analysts predict that Trimble’s earnings will grow about 8% this year. Although some of that growth should be purely organic, Trimble bought five software businesses in the latter half of last year and another that bundled both software and hardware. Together, those acquisitions cost about $100 million. They were something of a drag on profits and cash flow last year, but they should begin providing a boost this year.
Like so many other tech businesses, Trimble is looking to develop recurring revenue from a service. Unlike other tech companies that charge periodic licensing fees to use software, Trimble sells hardware outright and then charges periodic fees for using the enabling software. That should result in very sticky customers.
In short, Trimble Navigation is at the forefront of the agtech revolution but has a diversified business that provides solid revenue and profit growth even when agricultural prices are down. At the same time, the smart money is signaling that agtech is a lucrative opportunity, and with ag prices down now, this should be a solid entry point.
Buy Trimble Navigation under $30.
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