The $6 Billion Question

It might have been a coincidence, but it really shouldn’t have been. On May 26, Standard & Poor’s said it would downgrade the credit rating of Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) by two notches should the midstream giant complete its disputed merger with Williams (NYSE: WMB). That would almost certainly force Energy Transfer to slash its distribution, based on prior statements by management.

Two days later, Reuters reported that Williams, currently headed for a June 20 trial against Energy Transfer over a variety of mutual recriminations over the merger, has at long last signaled its willingness to negotiate over the pending deal’s $6 billion cash component, which is what has the credit raters bent out of shape.

The only surprise is that the overture, if genuine, didn’t happen earlier, since worries over the cash outlay, resulting credit downgrades and distribution cuts have driven down the value of Williams alongside that Energy Transfer.

Perhaps the approach of the trial date and the merger deadline the following week is concentrating minds. Or perhaps it’s just another misleading trial balloon along the lines of this one floated via Bloomberg back in January.

Our position remains the same it’s been all along: that there’s a win-win deal to be hammered out that would dramatically revalue both equities, which for better or worse remain linked while merger hopes live. That presumes sufficient goodwill  can be mustered, no sure bet amid the ongoing acrimony.

Without a new deal, the long-term value proposition remains but in the near term the ride is likely to stay rocky in the event of a distribution cut.

Growth pick ETE remains our #1 Best Buy below $15; WMB is a Buy below $23 in the Growth Portfolio.

 

Stock Talk

Bill Carr

Bill Carr

There is talk locally (Tulsa) WMB may be open to a restructured deal. Also, there is the thought that this, as well as some other moves by WMB, is nothing more than an attempt to appear not to be backing away from the tie up. There is,after all, $1.4B at stake.
I do not agree that this merger is a good deal. My opinion may be as a result of my local bias. However, K. Warren and ETE appear to want out of this tie up. From ETE its reevaluation of the deal offers little synergies. I do know this, K. Warren was once viewed as the consummate deal maker in the oil patch. His reputation has cratered. If this deal fails, as I hope it does, K.Warren will have trouble regaining his aura of invincibility and his status as the top deal maker in the oil patch.

Igor Greenwald

igreenwald

Whether they merge or not, both parties have incentives to resolve this before the last-minute trial in a couple of weeks, I think. And I agree on Warren’s repitation, to a point. Money will still talk, but he’ll have to put his up in cash and upfront from now on.

Steve K

Steve K

As a holder of WMB am I better of taking cash consideration or , stock consideration for the ETE merger

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I’d take all stock; it’s undervalued and minimizes your potential tax bill

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Actually, strike that. You have to opt for cash under the original deal terms because the equity bump in the all-equity version of the offer isn’t worth the $8.

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