In this issue:

Energy investing is easy. All you have to do to hit it out of the park is to be a contrarian, but not too early. No one is sure where all the early contrarians are buried.

So yes, we jest: energy investing is damn hard. Timing is crucial unless your investing horizon and holding stamina span decades.

We don’t think we’re too early in pounding the table for select producers of natural gas while gas drilling remains unprofitable outside Appalachia. Nor are we early in fighting the ebbing tide for solar stocks, near what we hope is the point of maximum bearishness.

This issue excerpts our takes on these and other key energy topics from the recently concluded Wealth Summit in Las Vegas.

We also delve deeper into the solar sector’s troubles and the potential of recent recommendation SolarEdge (NASDAQ: SEDG).

Buying this stock or that of a depressed natural gas producer won’t provide the instant satisfaction of doing something popular. In fact, it figures to feel downright uncomfortable.

But that’s the price of buying low, and we we’re more than willing to pay it.

Commodity Update

Starting this week we’re changing up how we report commodities. The table below is a more complete presentation of the many different commodities relevant to energy investors. We’ve included additional historical data to provide a broader perspective on what’s happening in many different segments. For example, below is a measure of refinery profitability known as the 3:2:1 crack spread. It tracks the profit margins from converting three barrels of oil into two barrels of gasoline and one of heating oil. As can be seen in the table, that spread is down from a year ago, which helps explain why refining stocks have been falling. In contrast, propane is near a one-year high, which illuminates the recent gains by some of the natural gas liquids producers. The ethanol crush spread is a margin measure for ethanol producers, calculated on the basis of the input of corn and the output of ethanol and a byproduct called distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS). As in the past, we will continue to provide brief commentary on the commodity markets in each issue.

In Other News

• Ahead of a meeting of OPEC producers, Qatar’s energy and industry minister said last week a minimum price of $65 a barrel is “badly needed at the moment.” Qatar has supported Saudi Arabia’s strategy to win back market share, so this may signal a loss of patience with that approach.

• Oil prices reached new 2016 highs after the EIA reported continued declines in U.S. crude inventories and production

• The International Renewable Energy Agency reports that last year the number of U.S. jobs in solar energy overtook those in oil and natural gas extraction for the first time

• Shareholders of ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) rejected resolutions backed by environmental activists that would have curtailed oil exploration. Several climate change resolutions were also defeated.

• After 44 years of sporadic construction, America’s first new nuclear reactor in 20 years came online in Tennessee