A Clean Sweep
We have now seen all the quarterly results for stocks held in the Dividend Champions portfolio and are pleased to report that all of the Champions either maintained or increased their dividends.
Compared with the same period last year, the average dividend increase was 5.7%, with the highest increase achieved by Canadian National Railway Co. at 22%. The graph indicates the distribution of the increases among the companies held in portfolio.
We aren’t too concerned about the lack of dividend growth from the commodity-linked companies such as Shawcor and Finning, as we expect that dividend growth will resume when the energy and commodity markets return to a sustainable growth trajectory.
Our bigger concern relates to companies that could increase their dividends but for a variety of reasons have chosen not to do so. TMX Group, Whistler Blackcomb, RioCan REIT and K-Bro Linen fall into this category. Each company has its own specific reasons for not boosting their payout, but we are projecting growth for these companies over the next two years as expansion projects conclude and/or balance sheets improve.
We publish weekly summaries of the quarterly results of our Dividend Champions as they report. Below are short summaries of the companies that have reported since the last publication of Canadian Edge.
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX: TD, NYSE: TD) reported solid results for the second quarter of their 2016 financial year. Adjusted earnings per share rose 5.3% versus the previous year. The dividend per share rose 7.8%.
Canada Retail banking, the main contributor to profits, increased net income by 2%, boosted by good loan and deposit growth while net interest margins declined slightly. The U.S. Retail operation had a good quarter, with profits in USD terms improving by 6% while the stockbroker TD Ameritrade improved profits by 13%.
Provisions for credit losses across the bank increased by 56% versus last year, mainly as a result of credit deterioration in the oil and gas loan portfolio. The bank’s exposure to oil and gas producers is less than 1% of the total loan book, while other exposures to small businesses and consumers located in the oil and gas affected regions (excluding real estate) make up another 2% of the loan book.
This is currently our only holding among the Canadian banks. With a forward price to earnings ratio of 11.6 and a dividend yield of 3.9%, the stock is worth holding. We estimate the fair value of the stock at C$61 or US$47.
Power Corporation (TSX: POW, OTC: PWCDF), a holding company with interests mainly in insurance and other financial services, declared noisy Q1 2016 results that complicate interpretation.
However, the dividend was increased by 7.7%, which in my view adequately reflects the operational performance and financial conditions of the company.
The discount to the underlying asset value remains considerable, and the dividend yield is 5.3%. We estimate the fair value of the stock at C$32 or US$25.
K-Bro Linen (TSX:KBL, OTC:KBRLF) reported reasonable first-quarter results, although some of the positive aspects were masked by a large increase in the depreciation charge. Earnings per share declined by 16% compared to last year while the dividend was left unchanged.
Revenues jumped by 15% as the new contracts with 3sHealth made a contribution for the full quarter. Given the large increase in revenue, it was not surprising to see expenses increasing by 16% resulting in an EBITDA improvement of 8%. Margins were lower than the previous year but we expect this to return to normal levels as efficiencies at the new Regina plant improve during the course of the year.
Long-term investors should take advantage of the current price weakness to build positions. Our fair value estimate is C$46 or US$35. The dividend yield is 3.0%.
Sun Life Financial Inc. (TSX:SCL, OTC:SAWLF) reported solid first-quarter results, with underlying earnings per share increasing by 12% compared to the previous year. The dividend confirmed the positive growth and sound financial condition of the business with a 6.6% improvement over last year.
We estimate the fair value of the stock at C$46 or US$36. The dividend yield is 3.7%.
Whistler Blackcomb (TSX: WB, OTC: WSBHF) delivered outstanding results for the first quarter (which includes the prime ski period), with a 43% increase in earnings per share compared with the same period last year. Surprisingly, the dividend was left unchanged.
Revenue increased by 28% as visitor numbers jumped by 27% during an above-average snowfall period, comparing favourably to a poor snowfall season last year. Operating expenses were well contained, resulting in an EBITDA increase of 30%.
The share price has declined by 9% over the past few weeks, as results were well anticipated by market participants. It will be interesting to see how the summer season develops, but all eyes are now on the next ski season. We estimate the fair value of the stock at C$26 or US$20. The dividend yield is 3.7%.
InnVest REIT (TSX:INN-U, OTC: IVR.F) reported a fairly poor first quarter as good performance in Ontario and British Columbia was offset by weakness in the energy regions, Alberta and Saskatchewan. Funds from Operations per unit (an estimate of operating cash flow) came in at -C$0.036 — slightly worse than the same quarter last year. The dividend per unit was unchanged.
Shortly before the release of the quarterly results, InnVest also announced that it has received an offer from Bluesky Hotels to acquire the units for C$7.25 in cash. This represents a 37% premium to the 30-day average price before the offer was made. The offer is supported by important shareholders, top management and the board.
We have now sold the units from the Dividend Champions portfolio.
The full impact of the slowdown in activity in the energy sector was once again evident in the first-quarter results of the pipe coatings provider ShawCor Ltd (TSX:SCL, OTC:SAWLF). Despite warnings from management that 2016 could be a very difficult year for the business as oil and gas project activity slowed dramatically, it was still tough to stomach an 80% drop in earnings per share. However, the strong balance sheet and low pay-out ratio ensured a maintained dividend.
Future profitability of the company is highly dependent on oilfield project activity and the award of current contract bids, both of which are uncertain in outcome. The current outlook is rather dismal but can change rapidly should some large contract bids be awarded. We estimate the fair value of the stock at C$31 or US$24, which we tag with a high degree of uncertainty. The dividend yield is 2.1%.
Tough operating conditions in Alberta necessitated some scratching and digging for Telus Corp. (TSX: T, NYSE: TU) to produce respectable profit numbers for the first quarter. Without adjustments (mainly for restructuring and depreciation costs), earnings per share were 6.8% lower versus last year. Earnings per share was unchanged on an adjusted basis. The dividend was increased by 10%.
The valuation remains attractive in absolute terms despite the profit slowdown, with an enterprise value to EBITDA ratio of 8 times and a dividend yield of 4.6%. We estimate the fair value of the stock at C$48 or US$37.
Manulife Financial (TSX:WJA, NYSE:WJAVF) delivered a 12% increase in core earnings per share (excluding market gains and losses on the investment portfolio). The dividend was 9% higher than the same quarter last year.
The business valuation is undemanding, with the 2016 price to earnings ratio at 10, a price to book ratio of 1.0 times and an attractive dividend yield of 4.1%.
Brookfield Investment Partners LP (TSX: BIP-U, NYSE: BIP) reported a 15% increase in Funds from Operations per unit (an estimate of operating cash flow) for the first quarter of 2016. The dividend per unit rose 7.6% compared with a year ago. FFO per unit for the full year is expected to grow by 11% and the distribution by 8%. The dividend yield remains attractive at 5.4%.
CI Financial (TSX:CIX, OTC:CIFAF) the medium-sized independent asset management company, produced somewhat disappointing results for the first quarter. Earnings per share dropped by 8% compared to last year. The dividend was increased by 5%.
The company experienced its first net quarterly outflow of assets under management since 2012 as an institutional investor placed a large redemption. Profit margins were also squeezed, as the trend toward lower management fees for actively managed accounts continued.
The profitability of the company is ultimately dependent on the performance of its investment funds, its ability to attract new assets and the performance of the overall market. We see better days ahead for this high quality operation, although it may take time for the portfolio managers to turn the performance around. Meanwhile the valuation is attractive, with a dividend yield of 5.1% on a pay-out ratio 70% of profits.
Finning International (TSX: FTT, OTC:FINGF) reported adjusted first-quarter earnings per share 42% below last year. The dividend remained unchanged.
Finning has been hard at work over the past year to align the cost base to the weaker operating environment, but the results were not yet visible as the business deteriorated faster that the cost reductions.
The outlook for the business remains challenging as commodity producers adjust to the new reality of lower product prices. For the full year, earnings per share are expected to decline by 19%. But the strong balance sheet and reasonable cash flow should ensure a stable dividend.
The forward price to earnings ratio seems expensive but it will quickly correct when profits recover. The dividend yield remains reasonable at 3.5%.
Inter Pipeline (TSX: IPL, OTC:IPPLF) reported Funds from Operations per unit (an estimate of operating cash flow) 4% higher than the year before. The dividend per share was increased by 6%.
The business performed well at the operating level with the star performance coming from the European bulk liquid storage facilities where higher utilisation, an acquisition and some foreign exchange benefits worked together for a 53% increase in profits. The oil sands transport business also performed well, with a 1% increase in volumes and a 7% increase in profits.
The dividend yield of 6.2% remains attractive, and we estimate the fair value of the business at C$28 or US$22.
TMX Group (TSX: X, OTC:TMXXF) reported adjusted first quarter earnings per share 1% higher than the same quarter last year. The dividend remained unchanged.
Not unexpected, revenue declined by 4% as capital formation by listed companies slowed significantly over the past several quarters in a weak market environment, especially for commodity producers. A bright light was the 17% increase in revenue from derivatives trading activities.
The stock remains inexpensively priced at a discount of 25% to its global peers. The dividend yield is 3.1%, although we are concerned about the lack of dividend growth over the past few years. The share price has advanced substantially over the past few months and further gains may be limited for some time. We estimate the fair value at C$48 or US$37.
The table overleaf lists the relevant dividend information for our current Dividend Champion holdings.
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