Weekly–May 23, 2007
UPDATE ON CURRENT INNER CIRCLE IDEAS:
We have 11 outstanding ideas currently running including the following:
ALTAIRNANO (NSDQ: ALTI) BUY
GLOW ENERGY (THAILAND: GLOW/F, OTC: GWEFF) SELL
THORESEN THAI (THAILAND: TTA/F) SELL
PSIVIDA (NSDQ: PSDV) BUY
AGF MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIP (TORONTO: AFP-U, OTC: AGFRF) BUY
MULTI-MANAGER LIMITED PARTNERSHIP I (TORONTO: MMN-U, OTC: MMPUF) BUY
MACKENZIE MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIP (TORONTO: MKZ-U, OTC: MCKZF) BUY
AMALGAMATED INCOME LIMITED PARTNERSHIP (TORONTO: AI-U, OTC: AILXF) BUY
PALM (NSDQ: PALM) BUY
AMERICAN HOME MORTGAGE (NYSE: AHM) BUY
NEWCASTLE INVESTMENT (NYSE: NCT) BUY
BUY ALTAIRNANO:
Not much news since last week; the stock is hovering in the low 3s, and the company remains on track.
As the naysayers and momentum investors ease their passions and move on to something more compelling, we’ll have to wait for more business gains like the recent $2.2 million deal with Phoenix Motorcars for more NanoSafe batteries.
ALTAIRNANO REMAINS A BUY.
SELL GLOW ENERGY AND SELL THORESEN THAI:
We’re cashing out of the two Thailand plays we put into motion right after the coup in that country. Sell Thoresen Thai for a gain of 50 percent and Glow Energy for a more modest gain of 12 percent. Dividend flows provided an additional 6 percent for Thoresen and 4 percent for Glow.
Thoresen is trading around 1.11 in the US OTC market while Glow is trading around 0.94.
Thoresen Thai and Glow Energy are both solid companies and would make for good longer-term investments, but we want to free up some cash for new ideas.
SELL THORESEN THAI AND SELL GLOW ENERGY.
BUY PSIVIDA:
As the toxic convertible is retired, there still seems to be some downside pressure from the conversion.
Regardless, as noted earlier this week, its partner Bausch & Lomb has now actively committed to marketing and supporting its ophthalmic products in the US. That’s very good news for pSivida and its Retisert and Vitrasert products for diabetic macular edema.
BUY PSIVIDA.
BUY AGF MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIP, MULTI-MANAGER LIMITED PARTNERSHIP I, MACKENZIE MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIP AND AMALGAMATED INCOME LIMITED PARTNERSHIP:
Picking up dividends and accruing on others: We continue to buy and hold our collection of limited partnerships. Each is trading positively overall, and two have paid us our first dividends.
Multi-Manager paid 7 cents April 30 (for an annualized yield of 24 percent), and Amalgamated Income paid 13 cents on April 13 (for an annualized yield of more than 21 percent).
We know not all of you have been “allowed” to buy these, as some brokerages have been bullied into believing that everybody in the world can buy these except Americans. This is bunk.
The partnerships are publicly listed. As such, they’re subject to the rules of the Canadian exchanges, and when operating and listed in the US they fall under US securities laws.
In the mean time, those of you able to do so should continue to buy and hold.
CONTINUE TO BUY AGF MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIP, MULTI-MANAGER LIMITED PARTNERSHIP I, MACKENZIE LIMITED PARTNERSHIP AND AMALGAMATED INCOME LIMITED PARTNERSHIP.
BUY PALM:
We’re not done with our takeover candidate and believe that there’s value in this company and its assets–just not with present management.
During the past few days we saw the stock pick up a lot more trading activity, resulting in a gain of around 3 percent for the week. Folks are eyeballing it and are working on behind-the-scenes deals that will be announced one of these Mondays, as has been the case with an increasing number of merger and acquisition deals.
We continue to monitor interested parties and their potential offers; Motorola, Dell and keep kicking the tires of our smartphone company that needs a good sharp stick to get its management going. It might take a little longer, but for now it’s worth buying, especially on down days.
CONTINUE TO BUY PALM.
BUY AMERICAN HOME MORTGAGE AND NEWCASTLE INVESTMENT:
Better price action for our plays on the overblown subprime market story has helped us during the last five days. And two dividends for American Home Mortgage paid or scheduled (one for 1.12 and another for 0.70 per share) and New Castle’s 0.69 per share distribution more than justifies our near-term risk exposure.
Buy both American Home Mortgage and Newcastle for the return of reality in their share prices in the shorter term. We’ll be thrilled to pick up some monster dividends along the way.
Remember, weekly updates for Inner Circle are sent out every Wednesday afternoon, and you can always visit http://www.neilsinnercircle.com to make sure you don’t miss a trade or an update.
WHAT’S IN IT FOR US?
NOTE: The following is free market commentary that Neil George has written for his By George (www.bygeorge.biz) subscribers. The advice and recommendations below are simply for your benefit as investors. And recommendations listed below are are not current Inner Circle recommendations, nor will they be followed and updated on a continuous basis. See above for the current Inner Circle recommendations and advice.
How do we go about picking out stocks we have enough confidence in to write up and try to convince you to put down your hard-earned cash on their shares?
Is it mere guess work? Am I just some charlatan trying to pull the wool over your eyes with some lame companies I pulled out of a hat? Or do I have a group of trained monkeys, armed with darts and a full-page layout of what’s left from today’s stock quote pages?
I could do any of the above and still have some kind of job. Some folks seem to be willing to not only suffer fools but celebrate them by continuing to read hackneyed old newsletters while listening to has-been talking heads on television spouting all sorts of investment nonsense.
But that’s not going to cut it for me. My money is riding along with yours on the picks and pans I put inside Personal Finance (https://www.pfnewsletter.com), as well as Inner Circle (http://www.neilsinnercircle.com) and Bond Desk (http://www.neilsbonddesk.com).
So there’d better be a good reason to own each of our stocks, bonds and funds, or I’ll have to go back to a real job where I have to put the full banker’s uniform back on–complete with the countless layers of cotton, wool, silk and such.
Right now, more and more folks are cheering on the US stock market indexes. They keep hoping and praying they can grab enough enthusiasm from investors and traders to bid up the biggie stocks leading the markets to help make up for the past seven years of losses.
It’s getting to be a tough slog. These same companies driving the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are having a tough time coming clean quarter after quarter about how business really is.
Some biggies are gloating a bit to the financial media about how the last quarter or so was, while others are a bit sheepish as they cower behind some lame excuses. But it really shouldn’t matter what they’re saying; it’s what they’re doing for us as investors.
The one thing that strikes me repeatedly is how so many companies that are supposedly doing great as they declare big gains in revenues and profits are at the same time continuing to be mediocre or lousy investments.
This isn’t a recent phenomenon. It seems that its part of what should be called the Wall Street Follies.
So think of it this way: A company keeps pushing product out the door either at the current or perhaps better clip than last year. But rather than giving stockholders our cut of the profits, they declare how great business is and hope that we forget about our cut and just keep buying and owning the stock.
And heaven forbid a company has a slump in sales; then the game gets a little more challenging. The company makes up some excuse based on a well-known natural disaster or political deal or shifts around the operating numbers to come up with a bottom-line, earnings-per-share number that’s palatable. Or it just tells the world that the company will up the marketing and do another big initiative.
Either way, with the help of its underwriters, analysts and the other talking heads on financial television, the company will continue to con more of us into believing it’s a great company.
Meanwhile, they’ll pay out big bonuses to management–on top of their usual hefty cash and prize dosages. And we’ll be expected to go along with the game for yet another quarter and hush up about not getting anything.
This doesn’t cut it with me either. As we continue to learn more and more, we’re less tolerant of holding such companies inside Personal Finance, even if they do have great products, assets and bright managers. We’re still the oddballs in the market as many advisors continue to buy into the Follies, resulting in more temporary reprieve in the performance of the S&P 500 and other leading US market indexes and their leading stocks.
We have to have one of two things to buy and continue to buy a stock. The first is easy: Pay us. Give us our cut of the declared profits. If the quarter was great, we get more; if it was average, we’ll get less. That way we know what we’re getting and why we’re investors in the company.
And if the company does want to keep a bigger chunk of the profits, then it needs to explain what the re-invested cash is going to do for us. If it’s going for management bonuses, declare it and put it right at the top of the list of expenses.
The second thing that we need isn’t just a great company with solid products and good management but one that’s in an improving market with some good prospects to get more attention from other prospective investors. That way, even if the cash isn’t being paid out in big chunks, we’ll have better-than-average expectations to get other investors to pay us more for our stock, resulting in a gain.
Ideally, it would be great to have both working for each of our stocks. But as long as we get at least one–either big cash or big gains–it’s fine with us. It’s only when we don’t get the cash and the stock isn’t moving that we should get upset and become sellers.
Last, the new capitalization program from one of our Growth Portfolio holdings inside Personal Finance, which includes the issuance of nearly 14 million new common shares on the New York Stock Exchange, has been priced and is coming to the market. These shares are the same common class-A shares that are part of the company’s Income Deposit Securities (IDS), which trades on the American Stock Exchange. The IDS also includes a corporate bond maturing in 2016.
Personal Finance subscribers can check the After The Bell Wrapup on the newsletter’s Web site (https://www.pfnewsletter.com) for our newest update on this company.
(c)2007 KCI Communications, Inc. 7600A Leesburg Pike, Ste 300, Falls Church, VA 22043. For customer service please click on the following link: https://www.kcisecure.com/customerservicelogin/kc.asp.
We have 11 outstanding ideas currently running including the following:
ALTAIRNANO (NSDQ: ALTI) BUY
GLOW ENERGY (THAILAND: GLOW/F, OTC: GWEFF) SELL
THORESEN THAI (THAILAND: TTA/F) SELL
PSIVIDA (NSDQ: PSDV) BUY
AGF MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIP (TORONTO: AFP-U, OTC: AGFRF) BUY
MULTI-MANAGER LIMITED PARTNERSHIP I (TORONTO: MMN-U, OTC: MMPUF) BUY
MACKENZIE MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIP (TORONTO: MKZ-U, OTC: MCKZF) BUY
AMALGAMATED INCOME LIMITED PARTNERSHIP (TORONTO: AI-U, OTC: AILXF) BUY
PALM (NSDQ: PALM) BUY
AMERICAN HOME MORTGAGE (NYSE: AHM) BUY
NEWCASTLE INVESTMENT (NYSE: NCT) BUY
BUY ALTAIRNANO:
Not much news since last week; the stock is hovering in the low 3s, and the company remains on track.
As the naysayers and momentum investors ease their passions and move on to something more compelling, we’ll have to wait for more business gains like the recent $2.2 million deal with Phoenix Motorcars for more NanoSafe batteries.
ALTAIRNANO REMAINS A BUY.
SELL GLOW ENERGY AND SELL THORESEN THAI:
We’re cashing out of the two Thailand plays we put into motion right after the coup in that country. Sell Thoresen Thai for a gain of 50 percent and Glow Energy for a more modest gain of 12 percent. Dividend flows provided an additional 6 percent for Thoresen and 4 percent for Glow.
Thoresen is trading around 1.11 in the US OTC market while Glow is trading around 0.94.
Thoresen Thai and Glow Energy are both solid companies and would make for good longer-term investments, but we want to free up some cash for new ideas.
SELL THORESEN THAI AND SELL GLOW ENERGY.
BUY PSIVIDA:
As the toxic convertible is retired, there still seems to be some downside pressure from the conversion.
Regardless, as noted earlier this week, its partner Bausch & Lomb has now actively committed to marketing and supporting its ophthalmic products in the US. That’s very good news for pSivida and its Retisert and Vitrasert products for diabetic macular edema.
BUY PSIVIDA.
BUY AGF MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIP, MULTI-MANAGER LIMITED PARTNERSHIP I, MACKENZIE MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIP AND AMALGAMATED INCOME LIMITED PARTNERSHIP:
Picking up dividends and accruing on others: We continue to buy and hold our collection of limited partnerships. Each is trading positively overall, and two have paid us our first dividends.
Multi-Manager paid 7 cents April 30 (for an annualized yield of 24 percent), and Amalgamated Income paid 13 cents on April 13 (for an annualized yield of more than 21 percent).
We know not all of you have been “allowed” to buy these, as some brokerages have been bullied into believing that everybody in the world can buy these except Americans. This is bunk.
The partnerships are publicly listed. As such, they’re subject to the rules of the Canadian exchanges, and when operating and listed in the US they fall under US securities laws.
In the mean time, those of you able to do so should continue to buy and hold.
CONTINUE TO BUY AGF MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIP, MULTI-MANAGER LIMITED PARTNERSHIP I, MACKENZIE LIMITED PARTNERSHIP AND AMALGAMATED INCOME LIMITED PARTNERSHIP.
BUY PALM:
We’re not done with our takeover candidate and believe that there’s value in this company and its assets–just not with present management.
During the past few days we saw the stock pick up a lot more trading activity, resulting in a gain of around 3 percent for the week. Folks are eyeballing it and are working on behind-the-scenes deals that will be announced one of these Mondays, as has been the case with an increasing number of merger and acquisition deals.
We continue to monitor interested parties and their potential offers; Motorola, Dell and keep kicking the tires of our smartphone company that needs a good sharp stick to get its management going. It might take a little longer, but for now it’s worth buying, especially on down days.
CONTINUE TO BUY PALM.
BUY AMERICAN HOME MORTGAGE AND NEWCASTLE INVESTMENT:
Better price action for our plays on the overblown subprime market story has helped us during the last five days. And two dividends for American Home Mortgage paid or scheduled (one for 1.12 and another for 0.70 per share) and New Castle’s 0.69 per share distribution more than justifies our near-term risk exposure.
Buy both American Home Mortgage and Newcastle for the return of reality in their share prices in the shorter term. We’ll be thrilled to pick up some monster dividends along the way.
Remember, weekly updates for Inner Circle are sent out every Wednesday afternoon, and you can always visit http://www.neilsinnercircle.com to make sure you don’t miss a trade or an update.
WHAT’S IN IT FOR US?
NOTE: The following is free market commentary that Neil George has written for his By George (www.bygeorge.biz) subscribers. The advice and recommendations below are simply for your benefit as investors. And recommendations listed below are are not current Inner Circle recommendations, nor will they be followed and updated on a continuous basis. See above for the current Inner Circle recommendations and advice.
How do we go about picking out stocks we have enough confidence in to write up and try to convince you to put down your hard-earned cash on their shares?
Is it mere guess work? Am I just some charlatan trying to pull the wool over your eyes with some lame companies I pulled out of a hat? Or do I have a group of trained monkeys, armed with darts and a full-page layout of what’s left from today’s stock quote pages?
I could do any of the above and still have some kind of job. Some folks seem to be willing to not only suffer fools but celebrate them by continuing to read hackneyed old newsletters while listening to has-been talking heads on television spouting all sorts of investment nonsense.
But that’s not going to cut it for me. My money is riding along with yours on the picks and pans I put inside Personal Finance (https://www.pfnewsletter.com), as well as Inner Circle (http://www.neilsinnercircle.com) and Bond Desk (http://www.neilsbonddesk.com).
So there’d better be a good reason to own each of our stocks, bonds and funds, or I’ll have to go back to a real job where I have to put the full banker’s uniform back on–complete with the countless layers of cotton, wool, silk and such.
Right now, more and more folks are cheering on the US stock market indexes. They keep hoping and praying they can grab enough enthusiasm from investors and traders to bid up the biggie stocks leading the markets to help make up for the past seven years of losses.
It’s getting to be a tough slog. These same companies driving the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are having a tough time coming clean quarter after quarter about how business really is.
Some biggies are gloating a bit to the financial media about how the last quarter or so was, while others are a bit sheepish as they cower behind some lame excuses. But it really shouldn’t matter what they’re saying; it’s what they’re doing for us as investors.
The one thing that strikes me repeatedly is how so many companies that are supposedly doing great as they declare big gains in revenues and profits are at the same time continuing to be mediocre or lousy investments.
This isn’t a recent phenomenon. It seems that its part of what should be called the Wall Street Follies.
So think of it this way: A company keeps pushing product out the door either at the current or perhaps better clip than last year. But rather than giving stockholders our cut of the profits, they declare how great business is and hope that we forget about our cut and just keep buying and owning the stock.
And heaven forbid a company has a slump in sales; then the game gets a little more challenging. The company makes up some excuse based on a well-known natural disaster or political deal or shifts around the operating numbers to come up with a bottom-line, earnings-per-share number that’s palatable. Or it just tells the world that the company will up the marketing and do another big initiative.
Either way, with the help of its underwriters, analysts and the other talking heads on financial television, the company will continue to con more of us into believing it’s a great company.
Meanwhile, they’ll pay out big bonuses to management–on top of their usual hefty cash and prize dosages. And we’ll be expected to go along with the game for yet another quarter and hush up about not getting anything.
This doesn’t cut it with me either. As we continue to learn more and more, we’re less tolerant of holding such companies inside Personal Finance, even if they do have great products, assets and bright managers. We’re still the oddballs in the market as many advisors continue to buy into the Follies, resulting in more temporary reprieve in the performance of the S&P 500 and other leading US market indexes and their leading stocks.
We have to have one of two things to buy and continue to buy a stock. The first is easy: Pay us. Give us our cut of the declared profits. If the quarter was great, we get more; if it was average, we’ll get less. That way we know what we’re getting and why we’re investors in the company.
And if the company does want to keep a bigger chunk of the profits, then it needs to explain what the re-invested cash is going to do for us. If it’s going for management bonuses, declare it and put it right at the top of the list of expenses.
The second thing that we need isn’t just a great company with solid products and good management but one that’s in an improving market with some good prospects to get more attention from other prospective investors. That way, even if the cash isn’t being paid out in big chunks, we’ll have better-than-average expectations to get other investors to pay us more for our stock, resulting in a gain.
Ideally, it would be great to have both working for each of our stocks. But as long as we get at least one–either big cash or big gains–it’s fine with us. It’s only when we don’t get the cash and the stock isn’t moving that we should get upset and become sellers.
Last, the new capitalization program from one of our Growth Portfolio holdings inside Personal Finance, which includes the issuance of nearly 14 million new common shares on the New York Stock Exchange, has been priced and is coming to the market. These shares are the same common class-A shares that are part of the company’s Income Deposit Securities (IDS), which trades on the American Stock Exchange. The IDS also includes a corporate bond maturing in 2016.
Personal Finance subscribers can check the After The Bell Wrapup on the newsletter’s Web site (https://www.pfnewsletter.com) for our newest update on this company.
(c)2007 KCI Communications, Inc. 7600A Leesburg Pike, Ste 300, Falls Church, VA 22043. For customer service please click on the following link: https://www.kcisecure.com/customerservicelogin/kc.asp.
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