The New World 3.0 Portfolio: Eyes on the Prize
The world’s stock markets aren’t for the faint of heart here in September 2008. Neither is the market for fixed income excepting US Treasuries, the classic safe haven.
The flipside of panicked crisis markets, however, is opportunity. It takes fortitude, patience, spare cash and a willingness to bet against the crowd. And it goes without saying that you’ve got to pick targets carefully.
Every bear market is triggered by stress tests. This one began in mid-2007, with the rise of pressures on the credit markets due to years of overleverage. Since then, US economic weakness and high raw material costs have further put the squeeze on a growing number of companies.
Every bear market eventually comes to an end. When it does, the companies that have survived the underlying stress tests always recover, often a lot faster than anyone thinks possible.
On the other hand, the companies that don’t survive the tests rarely recover, and only then after a lot of pain beforehand. They’re what really blow holes in a portfolio in bad times. And the most important bear market strategy is to avoid them at all costs.
Picking the right stocks in this environment, therefore, largely boils down to ensuring the underlying company is surviving the stress tests. The good news: Such strong companies are also the ones that have the most promise for capturing the investment dollars needed to create New World 3.0. In other words, the best thing we can do to dodge this bear market is to bet on the companies with the most promise for the future.
The New World 3.0 Portfolio features three major groups of companies. Red, White and Blue is made up of dominant US-based companies. These companies are successfully pivoting into New World winners by taking their old economy strengths and leveraging them with new technologies and ways of doing business. They’re big, strong and set to remain dominant for years to come.
Beyond Our Borders highlights similarly strong companies based outside the US. In one sense, the rise of these companies represents the ultimate success of the strategy followed by developed world leaders after World War II, when free market economies faced threats from all sides. They also give us political and geographic diversification, and also flexibility tapping into investment opportunities in countries where American players may be less than welcome.
Cutting Edge Tech is our place to feature higher-stakes small companies with breakthrough technologies that could literally change the world. They’re not for everyone and should be purchased in measure. But in the current market they’re selling for a song and feature phenomenal upside.
In this inaugural issue, we’re starting with five companies spread among these core groups. In Red, White and Blue, our pick this issue is Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), spotlighted by Elliott Gue in his article Oil 3.0.
We have three picks for Beyond Our Borders. BASF (OTC: BASFY) is highlighted in Gregg Early’s piece Small vs. Big, Here vs. There. Electricite de France (Paris: EDF, OTC: ECIFF) is recommended in my article, Power Plays. China Resources Power is the focus of Yiannis Mostrous’ Chinese Power Producers. Finally, our Cutting Edge Tech pick to start with is Qinetiq (London: QQ., OTC: QNTQY), also recommended in Gregg Early’s article.
In the coming months and weeks we’ll be adding more. Analysis of every recommendation is provided in the Beat articles, with a new one penned by a different editor every week.
We’ll have updates when needed in the Portfolio Alerts section also on the. Performance is updated in the Portfolio table on a weekly basis, measured by total return (capital gain or loss plus dividends paid).
Our vision here is big. We’re after big gains on companies wired into the creation of a new world from the ashes of the old. But again, our discipline is to take this one company at a time. If any of our picks should fail to deliver on their numbers, we’ll be out. Otherwise, now’s an ideal time to lock away the values these companies offer, and hold on for what should be an immensely profitable ride.
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