Spending for Prosperity
Will Mr. Obama and his team prove up to the task of pulling the US economy out of the ditch? Will they pursue pragmatic policies to revive growth? Or will they follow the script narrated by their opponents during the recent election and impose harsh new taxes that will send the markets and the economy into a renewed downward spiral?
History proves that a lot of what’s promised during campaigns is long forgotten a few weeks later. And it’s simply politics to paint your opponents’ positions in the worst possible light.
As for the stock market, it’s hard to discern what most investors’ view is at this point. On the one hand, some of the stories circulated in the financial media up until the vote were positively horrific. Probably for the first time since the 1950s, we heard the term “Marxist.” Other reports have alleged the president-elect has a hidden agenda aimed at killing off the coal industry.
The market staged its biggest election-day rally in history on Tuesday. Stocks then turned around and had their worst post-election loss on record, and tacked on another big decline Thursday before rallying Friday.
The worst thing about politics from an investor’s point of view is that it’s inherently unpredictable. Simply, circumstances rather than aims tend to dictate what any White House does.
That’s one reason why New World 3.0 has a truly global focus. There are great companies in every country that are capitalizing on the boom in infrastructure and capital spending. We can dodge the worst of political risk and take advantage of the maximum opportunities by spreading our bets around.
This week’s On the Beat 3.0 feature article by Yiannis Mostrous has our best idea now for large infrastructure companies based outside our borders: France-based Alstom (Paris: ALO, OTC: AOMFF). It’s a major player on carbon sequestration, the industry’s Holy Grail, and the likely beneficiary of billions of dollars of investment in coming years as the global power industry attempts to cut emissions of carbon dioxide blamed for global warming.
Although carbon regulation in the US was promised by both major US presidential candidates during the campaign, the weak economy makes it highly unlikely we’ll see any kind of punitive scheme that increases rates on coal-fired power. We are, however, certain to see more incentives to invest in carbon control technology. In fact, Congress has already passed the first tax credits to that end, an overlooked part of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 to rescue banks.
Only time will yield the answers to what the incoming Obama administration will do on this and on other fronts. But they do have one clear mandate: to revive the US economy at a time of financial-system stress, which, at the very least, is more severe than anything we’ve seen in decades.
It’s clear the ultimate aim is to shift some of the tax burden from the middle class to wealthier tax payers, as it was during the Clinton administration of the 1990s. That of itself clearly didn’t wreck the economy, which went on to stage one of its best performances in history, alongside the stock market.
This time around we’re starting from a much worse place than in late 1992. And the most salient aspect of any attempt to jumpstart the economy is going to be more spending. The easiest and most efficient way to do it is to spend on the country’s aging infrastructure.
Prospective infrastructure projects are not only among the few things that directly inject money into the economy and result in direct hiring, they also buoy the fortunes of state and municipal governments, many of which have become truly cash-strapped with the financial crisis and resulting tightening of liquidity. Possible projects include highways, bridges, water mains and even private sector ventures to develop sophisticated power and communications networks.
Perhaps most important, infrastructure projects also create the kind of 21st century systems that will be needed to keep America competitive going forward. And they’re increasingly popular with members of Congress, who have been holding frequent hearings on the subject in recent months.
Again, politicians’ promises–like their opponents’ characterizations of their positions–aren’t exactly hat-hangers. It will likely be some time before we see any real dollars go to work, if ever.
But one thing is clear: The private sector companies best positioned to win the contracts are riding a powerful tailwind, and they’ll make money globally no matter what the US does. At today’s share prices, there’s little to lose betting on our president-elect doing something that’s clearly in his best interest and ours.
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