New World Values
You may bottom- or top-tick a market once in your life, if you’re lucky. At least that’s what any experienced trader will tell you.
What you can do reliably, however, is sift through the wreckage of this historic bear market for extreme values. And there’s no better place to find them now than among the companies building the 21st century global economic and social infrastructure.
The bear market that began in mid-2007 has taken no prisoners. Even companies that have continued to generate solid earnings throughout were battered at the height of the US financial crisis, as investors of all stripes literally liquidated their portfolios.
Stocks’ five-day rally the week of November 21-28 was their biggest in 75 years. The following week opened on a negative note, but stocks generally steadied themselves toward the end. And sectors that have proven their resistance to recessions in the past finished out on a definite high note.
Only time will tell if we’ve seen a turning point in this market, or even a market bottom. The fear level remains very high, demonstrated by still-high volatility in even historically steady, conservative stocks. Companies’ current business fundamentals matter far less than fears about the future. Even dividend increases and reductions are having a limited impact.
There have been a handful of hopeful signs coming from the US economy. Initial unemployment insurance claims–the only hard measure of the employment as they’re never significantly revised–appear to be tapering off, and personal income ticked up more than expected last month.
Unfortunately, a host of other indicators from employment to orders for durable goods are still noticeably weakening. And although credit conditions have eased for stronger companies, non-investment grade bond issues have dried up almost completely. Companies are being forced to live within their means, and that’s never good for growth.
The bottom line is we’re not out of the woods yet in this market. Stocks of all sectors are washed out, and values abound. But more wild swings are almost certain, as are further dramatic selloffs for stocks–possibly even new lows. The time has rarely been better, however, for finding compelling bargains. You’ve got to be ready for the ups and downs, but the positions you lock in now on great companies will pay off for years to come.
The New World 3.0 Portfolio is set up to cash in on the surest trend of the next 20 years: Literally the greatest spending boom in the history of the planet as nations transform increasingly outmoded, antiquated and wasteful systems into a 21st century infrastructure, capable of supporting a growing list of needs in energy, environment, medicine, defense, nutrition, water, raw materials, communications, transport and scores of other areas.
As the incoming Obama administration continues to take shape, it’s increasingly apparent the globe is gearing up for a major government spending boom in all of these areas. The effort has its critics. It’s certain to explode federal budget deficits in many countries, including the US. And it’s arguably more geared toward igniting the economy–in many ways a political end–than long-term planning.
It does, however, virtually guarantee dollars for companies in the right place at the right time, even while other sectors of the economy struggle. And that’s a formula for success as we get more visibility on the global economy and investors again begin to discern companies that are working from those that aren’t.
Dollars mean earnings, and earnings mean profits. As we continue to build out the New World 3.0 Portfolio, we’ve stepped on a couple of landmines. That’s unfortunately to be expected when you buy in a bear market.
Overall, however, things are shaping up into a solid portfolio of high-quality companies, all of which are in line for big near-term gains as the market cycles out as well as monster long-term gains as the world transitions to a 21st century system.
Building Prospects
As outlined previously, we’ve divided our holdings into three groups: Red, White and Blue; Beyond Our Borders; and Cutting Edge Technology. The first two groups are companies that are currently big players but are also successfully shaping change. These are generally our more secure bets. The difference between them is Red, White and Blue are US based, while the rest are based overseas.
With the third group, Cutting Edge Tech, we’re looking at companies that are developing the technologies and processes that will shape the future. Here, we’re expecting a lower success rate but considerably more upside if we choose correctly.
To these three, we’re now adding a fourth group of companies, Metals and Materials. Building the infrastructure of the future will require unprecedented quantities of natural resources, from iron ore to copper. These stocks have been pummeled by concerns about the global economy and are at their cheapest levels since the late 1990s, making now an ideal time to buy.
We’ll continue to fill the ranks of the Portfolio over the next several weeks. Occasionally, we may have to remove one, as we did with Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) in November. But as long as prices remain this low, we’ll be in an addition mode.
Here’s a brief review of what we own currently. Note that each of these has been reviewed extensively in a Beat 3.0 Article.
Starting with the Red White and Blue, global power company AES Corp (NYSE: AES) is our most recent recommendation. The company continued to invest heavily in solar and wind energy, as well as efficiency technologies. It’s reviewed in my article The Real Alternatives.
Itron (NSDQ: ITRI) is the world’s leading player in advanced meters, a key element of the emerging smart grid that’s projected to dramatically cut waste in coming years. The stock has taken a beating but is backed by lucrative contracts with utilities worldwide, some of the most creditworthy customers on the planet. I introduced the stock in my article Catch the Negawatt Wave, and it’s reviewed again by GS Early in his article The Smart Grid and Smart Investing.
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP) owns a range of fee-based energy assets in North America, an ideal formula for paying a big distribution. These assets are also proving to be extremely recession resistant, evidenced by strong third quarter earnings. The limited partnership is highlighted in Elliott Gue’s article America’s Gas Growth.
Turning to current Beyond Our Borders fare, two are centered on the growth of emerging Asia: China Resource Power (Hong Kong: 836) and Hyflux Water Trust (OTC: HXWTF). Both have continued to post very strong numbers since we added them this fall, though they’ve both taken a beating as Asian markets have slumped even more than their US counterparts. Importantly, however, these are the kind of high-potential bets that can wipe out these losses in a hurry. China Resource is spotlighted by Yiannis Mostrous in his article Chinese Power Producers, and he highlights the Hyflux trust in Water Infrastructure.
Leading infrastructure builders are extremely important in a range of new and old projects; Yiannis’ recommendation of one of them, Alstom (Paris: ALO, OTC: AOMFF) can be found in the article Invest in Urbanization. The company has a promising new technology for carbon capture, in addition to a host of more conventional processes.
Chemicals are a key element of building the new world, and GS Early’s call on BASF (OTC: BASFY) is highlighted in his article Small Tech vs. Big Tech, Here vs.There. Finally, Electricite de France (Paris: EDF, OTC: ECIFF) is rapidly becoming the world’s leading player in nuclear power and is reviewed in my article Power Plays.
As for the Cutting Edge Technology recommendations, AeroVironment (NSDQ: AVAV) is highlighted in GS Early’s most current article, The Smart Grid and Smart Investing, and was initially introduced in The Green Revolution Hits the Military.
We’ve been up and down rather dramatically with American Superconductor (NSDQ: AMSC), originally recommended in GS’s article Emerging Technology, Developed Markets. But the company’s technology continues to hold a leading position in a range of transmission technologies. GS’s third pick in the group thus far is revolutionary defense company Qinetiq (London: QQ, OTC: QNTQY), highlighted in The Green Revolution Hits the Military.
Finally, our first Metals and Materials stock is Brazilian iron ore giant Vale (NYSE: RIO), which Yiannis Mostrous spotlights in Buy and Hold. Again, it’s been beaten down in the past few months, although its business has remained dominant. That’s a great combination for a compelling bargain.
Again, this list is far from complete as we continue to add companies in this bear market. If you’re following our lead, plan to invest incrementally over the next several months. That’s the way to build the best possible positions in what’s still a market full of pitfalls.
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