Inner Circle Update–December 8, 2008
Its advantage is also its disadvantage here: It’s a small company waiting for a couple big decisions. It had structured itself around its two major drug trials years ago, so its burn rate and cash needs are covered through 2010, when one or both drug delivery systems will emerge from safety trials.
The company’s BrachySil treatment for pancreatic cancer was the subject of a positive report on a BBC news show a couple weeks ago. It continues to receive milestone payments from Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), which is also a good sign.
On the downside, because it’s small, is waiting for good news on drug treatments, doesn’t have much visibility in the US and is still shaking the bad taste former management left in institutional investors’ mouths, no one is giving it a break until Medidur and BrachySil get approval.
There’s no point buying more here, but hang on to what you have; it’s no time to sell. Check out At These Levels for more frequent updates on this stock and others. Hold pSivida.
QinetiQ (London: QQ., OTC: QNTQY) has been sold off as institutional investors have moved away from any stock they’re not intimately familiar with. That’s to our advantage; QinetiQ is a great buy at these levels.
We cover this stock in New World 3.0. Check out The Salon section in the upper-right corner. There are a number of recent posts on QinetiQ, and you can access them even if you’re not a subscriber. We also update QinetiQ on At These Levels.
Suffice it to say that the first six months of this fiscal year were very strong; QinetiQ just signed a new contract with the US military for $58.5 million for its TALON robots, and its North America division is growing smartly. QinetiQ is a bargain and a certain hold.
WorldWater & Solar Technologies (OTC: WWAT) is hanging on by its nails but could benefit mightily from an energy independence/infrastructure stimulus plan. This was always a home-run shot, and right now the count is 2-2 with two outs, down by a run with the bases loaded.
The products are very good, and management seems to be getting its act together; 2009 will be its fish-or-cut-bait year. Hold WorldWater & Solar Technologies.
Mid-line upscale retailers Wolverine WorldWide (NYSE: WWW), Coach (NYSE: COH), and Urban Outfitters (NSDQ: URBN) are being punished with all other retailers at this point. But they aren’t exactly like others.
These retailers sell to less price-sensitive and economically sensitive 15 to 25 year-olds. They buy this stuff from gift cards and babysitting/tutoring money as well as receiving it as Christmas presents, etc.
There will be some upside surprises here in the next quarter or two. Wolverine WorldWide, Coach and Urban Outfitters are worth a hold here.
Burke & Herbert Bank & Trust (NSDQ: BHRB) is a local bank serving the Virginia suburbs around Washington, DC. The bank has been around since 1852, and it’s still owned by the Burkes and the Herberts.
This is a rock-solid institution that continues to receive high safety ratings from the powers that be–even in these highly paranoid times. The stock is up but has more legs; continue to hold Burke & Herbert Bank & Trust.
SanDisk’s (NSDQ: SNDK) star-crossed acquisition left the stock in tatters. Now, weak consumer tech news has given it a second beating. Although there may be a bit more upside in coming quarters, it isn’t worth it.
The play here was the sale premium that has utterly evaporated, and then some. Take the lumps and sell SanDisk.
Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE) has found itself caught in a perfect storm over the past few months.
A Chinese producer of photovoltaic (PV) modules, as well as a designer of PV systems, investors have been bailing out of Yingli as plunging oil prices have raised concerns that demand may shift away from alternative energy. Revelations of a slowing Chinese economy have also created a wall of worry, which has been difficult for every Chinese company to surmount. But, at least in Yingli’s case, those worries have been overblown.
Although it’s true that low-cost oil tends to have negative consequences for the development of alternative energy sources, the bulk of Yingli’s business is currently generated in Europe. That’s a region where demand for cleaner energy sources is driven at least as much by pure environmental considerations as by worries over the high cost of fossil fuels. Given then political implications, European governments will likely continue subsidy programs to encourage the development of alternative energy sources given political concerns.
The US market is less vital to Yingli’s long-term success, but it also presents lucrative opportunities for the company despite falling oil prices. Congress recently extended tax credits for alternative energy by eight years, which should continue to encourage both companies and individual consumers to continue embracing the green energy movement. President-elect Obama’s plan to push green energy both from an environmental perspective and domestic job creation should also help.
Given the international scope of Yingli’s business, problems facing the local Chinese economy have little impact on the company. Very little of its business is generated domestically, so the greater concern is the value of the renminbi (RMB).
In the company’s recent third quarter earnings announcement, it was reported that business remained strong from the standpoint of order flow. Total PV module shipments rose to 80 megawatts (MW), generating RMB2.2 billion in net revenue, up from 62.8 MW and RMB1.9 billion in net revenue in the second quarter. That leaves full-year PV shipments and revenues within the upper range of the company’s earlier issued guidance.
The only issue with the third quarter numbers was the effect of currency exchange, with margins being squeezed by a weakened euro, the currency in which most of Yingli’s business is conducted.
Next year should shape up to be positive for the company, with a full order book and plans to expand PV output by 200 MW. A low-cost producer in an expanding market, Yingli Green Energy remains a buy.
The catalysts we were looking for with SES Solar (OTC: SESI) have been developing as expected, though they haven’t created the pop we’ve anticipated.
The firm has won patents for its innovative process of manufacturing the electrical connections between solar panels to minimize energy loss during transfer. The construction of the company’s new manufacturing facility to build solar panels with the connections is actually ahead of schedule, and the company has sold the rights to the roof of the facility, covered in its solar panels, to a local electric utility to raise extra cash.
SES Solar holds great promise, but in the current market environment it will take time for it to receive the recognition it deserves. Because it’s a smaller development-stage company–only one mainstream analyst covers its progress–there’s little fanfare when it meets milestones. It looks like we were too early to the party. Sell SES Solar.
We also haven’t caught the bounce we expected on AllianceBernstein Global High Income (NYSE: AWF), BlackRock Income Opportunity (NYSE: BNA) or Templeton Emerging Markets Income (NYSE: TEI).
Closed-end bond funds traded on the New York Stock Exchange, each fund is changing hands at a fairly steep discounts to its net asset value (NAV). That means share prices are nowhere near reflecting the values of the underlying bonds.
With all the doom and gloom in the markets today, it’s not likely that our funds will regain much ground in the near term. Although all three are currently discounted, the NAVs have been falling as legitimate economic concerns weigh on some bond prices.
Sell AllianceBernstein Global High Income BlackRock Income Opportunity and Templeton Emerging Markets Income.
Makhteshim-Agan Industries (Tel Aviv: MAIN.IT, OTC: MAIXF), our Israel-based manufacturer of crop protection and other agricultural chemicals, has been pounded as commodity prices have fallen.
Despite recent record-setting revenue, the company has been burning cash because it’s been sitting on inventory for longer periods of time. That’s contributed to a recent proactive pay cut by management, with the firm’s CEO agreeing to take a 10 percent reduction, and other senior executives’ paychecks have been trimmed by 8 percent.
Despite these proactive steps to cut costs, Makhteshim-Agam Industries is a sell given its tough business environment.
Suez Environnement (Paris: SEV, OTC: SZEVF), though beaten down since its initial public offering in July, operates in a key infrastructure sector, water. It’s a highly cyclical stock, with the bulk of its business conducted in warmer weather. That’s conducive to construction, so we should see more movement once spring arrives.
Suez can still work deals in the meantime, though, and is bidding to take over the greater Paris water services contract, among other assets. Hold Suez Environnement.
Stock Talk
Add New Comments
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account