Digging and Growing
Before 1937 the economic theories of John Maynard Keynes struggled to gain traction with policymakers, but that year Franklin Delano Roosevelt embraced the idea of the government acting as the spender of last resort.
Though regnant free-market ideology has prompted some to question the sagacity of these moves, conventional histories typically credit Roosevelt and his Keynesian economic policy with pulling the country from the grips of the Great Depression.
And subsequent recessions have transformed even staunch fiscal conservatives into free spenders. The worst economic downturn since the Great Depression is no exception. Regardless of your economic persuasion, it’s difficult to argue with results: There have been only a few notable instances where the Keynesian solution hasn’t worked.
But such an approach isn’t without its hazards.
Freewheeling monetary policies are understandably popular in times of economic weakness, but authorities are often slow to tighten monetary conditions once signs of recovery appear.
That phenomenon is arguably one of the contributing causes of the current crisis–chiefly the Federal Reserve’s reticence to tighten monetary policy in the wake of Alan Greenspan’s extended rate cuts. And easy money is always put to work, though rarely to its most productive uses, creating market bubbles. To top it off, easy money also has the potential to beget inflation.
Rampant inflation is of little concern in the short term; most corners of the global economy are experiencing negative growth, though China stands out as a notable exception. Many analysts forecast that China’s economy will grow 8 percent this year on the back of the government’s stimulus plan and continued, albeit weakened, global demand for goods. At the same time, economists worry that deflation could hobble the US economy as job losses mount and production falls.
But indicators suggest that the US economy might be stabilizing; the rapid rate of job losses has showed signs of slowing, while other economic data have also started to firm up. Although we’re not going to see a meaningful recovery next month, it’s a welcome improvement.
Over the long term, inflation should remain on investors’ radars. Despite the prevailing gloom, the economy won’t remain in the doldrums forever; most economists expect a turn for the better by the fourth quarter or early next year. And, as usual, odds are that policymakers will be slow to pull excess cash out of the economy.
Investors rightly regard gold as a traditional hedge against inflation, but commodity prices also tend to pick up steam in such an environment. This occurred in 2008 when market values of both agricultural and mineral commodities soared.
And like gold, commodities are hard assets that have intrinsic value. That’s a distinct difference from the US dollar, which aside from the full faith and credit of the federal government, is only valuable because there’s an ostensibly limited supply. Going forward, commodity prices should get a nice boost from investors seeking the stability provided by hard assets.
Impending weakness in the US dollar makes the prospects for commodities all the more compelling. The Federal Reserve has pumped billions upon billions of dollars into the economy, seeking to stabilize prices and ensure the solvency of our financial system by providing gobs of cheap money.
Between the glut of dollars floating around and our astronomically high national debt, the value of the dollar will inevitably lose ground against many currencies. With most commodities priced in dollars, lower prices will drive higher consumption.
This confluence of factors makes this an excellent time to start building up a stake in commodities funds, though they should only account for a small part of your holdings. Commodities are a great inflation hedge and an integral part of a properly balanced portfolio. Although a diversified investment strategy reduces the risk of overexposure to a particular industry or sector, be aware that you lose some of that advantage if your commodities positions account for more than 5 percent of your holdings.
PIMCO Commodity Real Return Strategy D (PCRDX) is an attractive way to gain exposure to the coming bull market in commodities. An enhanced index fund, PCRDX invests in derivatives linked to the Dow Jones AIG Commodity Total Return Index, which tracks a basket of both hard and soft commodities. The fund need only put up a nominal amount of cash for the derivatives contract, while the bulk of its assets are invested in Treasury inflation protected securities and other fixed-income instruments.
This approach generates a huge yield of 7.9 percent while mimicking the movement of a basket of commodities. This strategy necessarily entails a great deal of leverage, but the fund has the wherewithal to more than cover its obligations. And with an expense ratio of 1.24 percent, the fund is inexpensive relative to its peers.
Alternatively investors can forego the leverage and fixed-income exposure of the PIMCO fund by buying a relatively new form of investment known as an exchange-traded note (ETN).
Investors essentially swap leverage and duration risk for credit risk with an ETN. The notes are unsecured debt issued primarily by Barclays Bank PLC, and represent a promise by the bank to pay the returns of the index less fees. These notes don’t carry a claim on any assets.
Those caveats aside, iPath Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index ETN (NYSE: JDP) is an excellent commodities play, though it offers no yield. It simply tracks its underlying index, which currently consists of 21 percent industrial metals, 29 percent agricultural commodities such as soybeans, 12 percent precious metals, 7 percent livestock and 31 percent energy.
Don’t expect commodities to soar tomorrow; it will be at least several months before enough pressure builds in the system for prices to begin percolating upwards. But with prices still depressed compared to a year ago, this is an excellent entry point. And, if you opt for the PIMCO offering, you’ll be well paid while you wait.
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