Transcendent Trends
Long-time readers know I set a lot of store in the numbers. Specifically, I’m talking about the numbers companies generate each quarter that highlight the health of their underlying business and balance sheet.
For most investors–including those who run many of the financial institutions that dominate stock market trading–the only important number is earnings per share (EPS). And they define success or failure by whether or not companies were able to measure up to the expectations of analysts who spend their careers tracking their fortunes.
The consensus conclusions and reactions to headline EPS numbers, however, usually say a lot more about the prevailing market sentiment than the actual business fortunes of companies. And it’s those operating fortunes that make or break New World 3.0 recommendations as investments.
As we pointed out when this product was launched, our goal is to highlight the best plays on trends that transcend the prevailing market ups and downs. We’ve since had a rather unique opportunity to prove the worth of the strategy, since launch basically fell on the date that Lehman Brothers failed and the global stock market retreat turned into the worst rout in 80 years.
Not every pick moved up in a straight line. In fact, several recommendations actually went into full reverse before later shooting much higher. But by sticking with companies backed by solid businesses and tapped into transcendent trends, we’ve outperformed global stock market averages–and in fact have generated some very strong returns in an exceptionally shaky environment–as even a cursory look at the NW3 Portfolio reveals.
Again, a good part of that out performance was due to our identifying transcendent trends: renewable energy, smart defense, exploding global connectivity, ascendant Asia, rising demand for raw materials, and so on.
But an equally important piece of the puzzle was strong numbers, not necessarily blockbuster EPS, but solid underlying numbers pointing to continuing growth and good financial health, again despite very tough operating conditions.
When Lehman Brothers fell, for example, many investors assumed AES Corp (NYSE: AES) would succumb to credit pressures they way it did in 2001-02, when it nearly went Chapter 11. As a result, we were able to pick it up in November 2008 at only about $7 a share. Since then, the company has continued to report great numbers, controlling debt and actually following through on projects to boost output.
As a result, headline earnings per share beat expectations handily in the second quarter and look poised for even better things the rest of the year. As for the stock, it’s basically doubled from our entry point. But the real upside in AES is yet to come, as it’s poised to benefit from not one but two transcendent trends: emerging Asia and the push for carbon-neutral power.
Leading geothermal power pure play Ormat Technologies (NYSE: ORA) has given us similar gains, also by continuing to cash in on the transcendent trend of burgeoning renewable energy usage.
Ormat increased its total generation by 14 percent in the second quarter versus year-earlier levels, pushing up revenue 24.9 percent and earnings per share by 32.3 percent. And with a growing number of geothermal projects on tap and the best technology out there, it’s also only begun to enrich us.
American Superconductor (NSDQ: AMSC) continues to expand its reach into alternative energy by adapting fuel cell technology to wind power. And it’s in the right part of the world to make that leap, developing China, where the government is anxious to meet surging electricity needs without further fouling the air.
Fiscal quarterly revenue nearly doubled and operating margins hit a record 30.9 percent. That beat the pants off estimates. But mainly the numbers revealed a company on the come, and poised to give us a lot more than the ride from low 20s to low 30s it’s given us over the past 11 months.
The doubles we’ve made in our raw materials picks are admittedly due to the fact we bought when no one else wanted them. But they’re no less hooked into a transcendent trend than the rest of our picks. That’s mainly emerging Asia, which has become the globe’s premier market for raw materials, and there’s a lot more on the way.
Not every pick has been off the races, of course. But we’ve got plenty of reason to stay patient with the likes of smart meter manufacturer Itron (NSDQ: ITRI) and water cleanup and pipe repair company Insituform Technologies (NSDQ: INSU), as both companies’ strong second quarter earnings attest.
Even in a recession they’re tapping into demand that is, again, transcending the current weak environment. Both are showing a small profit and it may take evidence of faster growth to bring in buyers. But as long as they are growing, that’s only a matter of time. And we’re willing to wait, as long as the business numbers are showing us what we want.
This week, associate editor GS Early has penned what I believe is one of the most important articles we’ve ever run in NW3, Big Tech That Still Innovates.
His thesis cuts to the chase of what this advisory is all about: Tapping into the truly transcendent trends with the highest percentage bets we can make. And we’re adding a couple of his picks to the Portfolio. Check it out.
These companies aren’t necessarily the flashiest or fastest moving. And much of their business isn’t what anyone would call breakthrough technology at all. The point, however, is that they’re transitioning their business to dominate what’s ahead for their critical industries the same way they have to now.
And that’s the secret to a strong company and a successful investment.
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