Game Changers
Last week The Wall Street Journal ran a special feature touting new technologies it considered “game changers.” As a piece on supposed breakthroughs, most of it was pretty tame stuff.
One area of focus, however, is certainly worthy of comment, especially since a real potential breakthrough (not mentioned by the Journal) was announced this month: carbon capture.
Wind, solar and even nuclear power get far better press. But burning coal is the way half of US electricity is generated. And billions upon billions of dollars of infrastructure in this country is dedicated to mining, processing and shipping the black mineral to the utilities that use it.
Dependence on coal is even greater in China, which is apparently set to overtake the US as the world’s leading producer of carbon dioxide (CO2) well ahead of schedule.
The Obama administration’s effort to pass anti-global warming legislation has been at least temporarily stalled, mainly because of a now all-encompassing effort to pass health care legislation. For the companies that burn coal to generate electricity, however, the handwriting has been on the wall for a long time. And whether carbon regulation passes this year or not, they’re pushing as never before for a way to take the CO2 out of coal-fired power.
Opponents of carbon regulation have repeatedly cited China’s refusal to sign the Kyoto Treaty on CO2 as a reason why the US shouldn’t either. But China’s power generators too are seeking a solution. In fact, both Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK) and Southern Company (NYSE: SO) have inked deals with Chinese companies to jointly develop technology that can strip the CO2 out of coal-fired power plant emissions.
That’s set up an explosive profit opportunity for the company that comes up with the most cost-effective process for CO2 emission controls. And it looks more and more like the leader is Portfolio member Alstom (Paris: ALO, OTC: AOMFF).
We’ve already realized a hefty profit from this diversified French engineering powerhouse, particularly in US dollar terms. The company’s great strides in carbon-capture technology, however, promise to strike real pay dirt.
Specifically, Alstom reported this month that its proprietary chilled ammonia process had removed 90 percent of carbon emissions from the flue stream of a coal-fired plant owned and operated by Wisconsin Energy Corp (NYSE: WEC).
The test, which will run through late 2009, was conducted on a 1.7 megawatt slipstream rather than a commercial-size plant. And it didn’t involve large-scale CO2 storage, the second great challenge of reducing coal-fired plants’ greenhouse gases.
But in the words of management, the test did achieve key research metrics such as hours of operation, ammonia release, CO2 removal and CO2 purity. And it’s the first real test on an existing coal-fired power plant, proving that even the oldest and dirtiest units have the potential to clean up their carbon, just as they’ve reduced mercury, particulate matter and acid rain-causing gases.
The next step is for the partners to take the process to a commercial-scale plant. That’s going to take time and, above all, money. But with the federal government and states in strong support, Alstom remains, in management’s words, “on schedule to commercialize carbon capture technology for new and existing power plants by 2015.”
That’s phenomenally bullish for Alstom, which also has projects going in several other states and is a leader in train technology as well as other infrastructure. Alstom remains a great buy up to EUR55 or USD80.
It’s hardly a surprise that renewable energy and smart grid development also made the Journal’s list. Spending on energy efficiency, solar, wind and even biomass continued to grow throughout the deepening global recession. It’s accelerated further now that things are stabilizing and is poised to grow faster than ever when the global economy finally rebounds.
Meanwhile, our picks are still advancing rapidly. American Superconductor (NSDQ: AMSC) at one time sank to little more than half our original entry point, as investors dumped it in the heat of last year’s credit crisis. Now it’s up by nearly the same percentage. More important, its underlying business is moving ahead at a breakneck pace.
Much of the company’s success to date has been courtesy of the US Dept of Defense, which has continued to push contracts its way. Management has also been able to rapidly grow American Superconductor’s China business, largely as an essential technology in the construction of wind turbines.
Less successful has been an area I’ve seen as a potential catalyst since the 1990s: applying its ultra-efficient technology to increasing efficiency on the ancient, decaying and increasingly inadequate US transmission grid. Utilities and government entities alike simply seemed unwilling to make the needed expenditure, or to take the chance that the technology would be effective.
Now all that may be changing, and with a vengeance. Not only are Washington and a growing number of states freeing up funds for efficiency measures. But utilities like Exelon Corp (NYSE: EXC) are aggressively pushing conservation and efficiency measures as well, both as a cheaper way to meet demand and as the only investment where solid regulated returns are always assured.
Last week American Superconductor announced that it won a contract to combine three separate US transmission grids into a single network. The trio is located in Texas, the country’s most isolated and far-flung market. American Superconductor will receive cash for its efforts as well as a share of the fee revenue from the connection via an ownership interest in the company awarding the contract.
This is the first of what could be many such deals. American Superconductor has a clear lead in the technology thanks to years of producing for the cash-rich DoD. And it’s honed its advantage abroad for precisely such an opportunity. Buy American Superconductor up to USD30 if you haven’t already.
Ormat Technologies (NYSE: ORA) is best known for its extensive geothermal projects, particularly in the US. The company’s Nevada Geothermal project recently reported it was not only on schedule and budget but would actually produce more energy than projected.
Now the company is making a move into solar energy via a joint venture agreement with Sunday Energy Ltd, a privately owned Israeli company. The company will own 70 percent of each project developed with Sunday, and power will be sold to Israel Electric Corp under 20-year purchase agreements.
Ormat has given us a return of nearly 50 percent since we added it to the Portfolio in March. Projects like these will keep that growth going for years to come. Ormat is a buy up to USD40.
Finally, Itron (NSDQ: ITRI) remains the conservative investor’s best way to play the turbo-charged growth of the smart grid. The globally dominant seller of smart meters continues to lock down contracts with utilities around the globe.
This month Itron deepened its relationship with Northwest Natural Gas (NYSE: NWN) with advanced technology, as did Edison International (NYSE: EIX) unit Southern California Edison.
Potentially more significant, however, were alliances inked with EnergyHub and Arcadian Networks. The former will allow the company to integrate its meters with a range of in-home energy management devices. The latter will merge Itron’s technology with broadband solutions.
This week several financial pundits posited that Apple’s (NSDQ: AAPL) next “killer application” would be in energy. The computer giant would be better served to check out the companies already positioned in the space that would win big from any attention from Apple, namely Itron. Buy Itron up to USD70 if you haven’t yet.
Of course, any or all of these stocks could take a hit in the near term should the overall market suffer a spill. But as long as these companies–as well as other Portfolio holdings–are locked into such immutable, transcendent trends, long-term success is inevitable. And we’re going to make a lot of money buying and holding them.
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