Back to Basics
The S&P 500 is up more than 50 percent from its March 9 lows, but many question the quality of the rally. The biggest gains are to be found in small-caps and financials, and the macroeconomic data suggest stabilization rather than real recovery. That means consumer staples are still some of the best market insurance available.
As consumer confidence has dipped to a 26-year low, it’s become increasingly apparent that this won’t be a holly jolly holiday shopping season. In fact, many retailers, particularly at the high-end of the market, have already warned that the fourth quarter–typically their bread and butter–will likely yield disappointing results as consumers keep the plastic in their pockets.
These sentiments are bleeding through to almost every level of the consumer chain. Even as the economy appears to be firming up at the macro level, the average American remains fretful about his or her ability to obtain or hold a job and expects incomes and home values to continue to fall. In that light recovery prospects appear quite dim and conditions aren’t likely to brighten anytime soon.
Staples are one niche in the marketplace that will weather any storm the holiday season may bring. Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) should enjoy one of its best holiday seasons as more shoppers look to stretch their dollars, and Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) will likely generate solid results as more traditional fare is laid out for holiday parties.
It’s tough to go broke owning companies like that.
And now is an opportune time to establish a position in the sector. As you can see in “S&P 500 Sector Performance,” consumer staples have gained just 8.2 percent so far this year and have rallied a bit more than a third from the March lows. It’s also been one of the worst performing S&P 500 sectors this year–there’s still plenty of value there.
Fidelity Select Consumer Staples (FDFAX) is one of the best ways to harness shifting consumer trends. Holdings include Wal-Mart Stores and Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) as well as Kroger Company (NYSE: KR), Unilever (NYSE: UL) and Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE: CL). The fund has held up well by owning companies that make money rain or shine, and the well-established names that make up its portfolio fit that bill.
On a year-to-date basis the fund is squarely in the middle of the large-blend category, having slightly underperformed the S&P 500. But on a three- and five-year basis it beats the benchmark index by 11.5 percent and 8.9 percent, respectively. These numbers illustrate the virtues of being a focused fund with an emphasis on essential consumer goods (about three quarters of the portfolio) rather than services during tough times.
Manager Robert Lee also brings several years of experience to the table. He began his career at Fidelity as a research analyst, eventually taking the reins at Select Consumer Staples in June 2004. He had a rough first year–in 2005 the fund dropped to the middle of the category as the performance of consumer staples lagged–but he’s kept the fund in the top quintile ever since.
An expense ratio of 0.90 percent is reasonable for a focused fund, and this one features the added benefit of a 1.2 percent yield. The fund also performs similarly to the S&P 500, though its beta is just 0.7, meaning it avoids the whipsaws the S&P can sometimes produce.
With more than 56 percent of assets in its top 10 positions, the market price can move drastically based on news about a single portfolio holding. Although big swings are extremely rare, it’s important to be aware of the potential and not to panic if one happens.
Although it shouldn’t be a core holding for any investor, Fidelity Select Consumer Staples can play a role in almost any portfolio as both a play on changing consumer habits as well as a hedge against market swings.
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