Encouraging Earnings
Is the global recession really over? The US economy’s explosive 5.7 percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2009 certainly seems to say yes. More than half of that surge was attributable to businesses halting the drawdown of inventories and restocking needed infrastructure and equipment. But even consumer spending was stable, and exports were up over 18 percent.
On the other hand, there’s still plenty of weakness around the world, starting with the European Union which is facing a serious credit challenge in several countries, notably Greece. Problems in the cradle of democracy won’t bust up the EU, but they are having a real impact on the Euro and, by extension, Europe in general.
Robust economic growth in large, developing nations like China, Brazil and India was a plus last year. China and India, however, have begun pulling in their horns a bit to combat a rising threat of inflation. That’s also had a big impact on world markets, particularly the US and Canada, where exports to Asia have been key to recovery efforts.
The global economy appears to be getting back on its feet, but there are still plenty of potential catalysts for a stumble, and progress continues to be slow, particularly in higher debt nations.
That fact has certainly not been lost on the world’s stock markets, which continue to climb a very tall wall of worry. The 3.5 percent average drop in the US blue chips stock for January wasn’t as severe as the near 10 percent plunge that occurred in the opening month of 2009. But it was bad enough to leave many worrying about what the rest of the year will bring, and economic concerns are at the top of the list.
Our advice as always is to focus more on companies than markets. You can’t afford to completely ignore the macro environment. But as the debacle of late 2008 and recovery of 2009 proved once again, strong underlying businesses don’t fold. And no matter how far quality stocks may fall in a full-scale meltdown, they’ll recover that and more when conditions improve.
That’s been the case for the 22 recommendations in Portfolio 2020’s year and a half of existence. The publication launched shortly after the September 2008 fall of Lehman Brothers–hardly an ideal environment. In fact, conditions worsened dramatically over the next six months.
That most of our picks are now up by a considerable margin is a testament not to market timing; these strong companies are tapped into the most explosive trends of the 21st century. And that remains the hallmark of everything we recommend in this advisory, including what’s in the recent articles on wireless communications towers, scrap metals, hydropower and natural gas drilling.
Earnings Season
Earnings season is when strong companies distinguish themselves. And we’ve already seen some solid performance. Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP) boosted its distributable cash flow 44 percent and projected a 4.8 percent distribution boost for 2010.
That was a major accomplishment, considering a 2.5 percent drop in throughput volumes across all operations. Steel volumes at the master limited partnership’s (MLP) terminals division were “substantially below” management’s projections. Poor pricing for oil and natural gas liquids were strong headwinds at the carbon dioxide (CO2) division, which provides CO2 injections for otherwise depleted oil wells. Moreover, the company encountered delays starting up two major natural gas pipeline projects.
Offsetting the weakness is some pretty good blocking and tackling the partnership’s part. Management reduced costs and debt expenses, maximizing profits and margins and setting the stage for better results in 2010.
After a recent acquisition, Kinder now controls nearly one-third of ethanol transportation in the US. Some 75 percent of its business is under “term contract” and not subject to much throughput risk. That’s a model for growth in almost any environment. Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP is a buy up to 65.
I expect the other Portfolio 2020 recommendations to report similarly strong results in the coming weeks. And we’ll keep you updated on their performance.
As long as our favorites keep doing well, we’ll stick with them and watch our profits grow. That, of course, doesn’t mean these stocks can’t dip and dive occasionally when the market retreats. And that may be what’s in store in early 2010.
But consider this: Last January’s swoon was followed by one of the most explosive market rallies ever, starting in March 2009. What we’ve seen the last month may look scary. But a difficult January doesn’t necessarily presage a yearlong downturn. As long as good companies move forward as businesses, they’ll gain value and build wealth for shareholders.
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