Experience Has Its Benefits
At 41 years old, this offering is a senior citizen in the mutual fund world. Having returned 9.7 percent since its inception, the fund has outperformed a small-but-venerable group of long-lived peers with only slight tweaks to its investment approach.
Focusing primarily on classic, large-cap growth stocks and technology names, Vanguard Morgan Growth (VMRGX) hasn’t received much press attention of late. A part of the old guard of mutual funds, it’s a steady performer that doesn’t need the press to sing its praises.
Like many Vanguard offerings, the fund divides its investable assets among several managers–in this case, Wellington Management, Jennison Associates, Frontier Capital Management, Kalmar Investments and Vanguard’s own Quantitative Equity Group (QEG).
Each team has a free hand to manage those assets within the constructs of the fund’s mandate. Currently, Jim Stetler of QEG is responsible for 20 percent of the fund’s assets; Paul Marrkand of Wellington manages 40 percent; and the remainder is divided among the other three managers.
As its name suggests, QEG uses computer modeling to meet its objective of outperforming the MSCI US Prime Market Growth Index. Although the group’s sector allocations precisely track its benchmark, Stetler focuses only on the stocks in each sector that should outperform based on factors such as price momentum, valuations and earnings growth. And unlike other quant managers who blindly follow their models’ outputs, Stetler and his team actually identify the factors driving quantitative outperformance.
The remaining four managers all use variations of fundamental analysis: Marrkand looks for reasonably priced stocks with strong growth potential; Kathleen McCarragher of Jennison screens for rapidly growing large-caps that are clear leaders in their fields; and Stephen Knightly of Frontier Capital Management and Ford Draper of Kalmar focus on small- and mid-cap names.
Despite these varied investment styles, all of the managers have arrived at much the same conclusion about what’s attractive in the markets right now. The fund is significantly underweight in energy, health care and financials relative to its peers; the team believes valuations in those sectors have become unattractive. Management believes that earnings growth forecasts for those sectors are likely too high and, in the case of energy, bake in an overly aggressive inflation outlook.
Technology names, on the other hand, account for nine of the fund’s 10 biggest holdings (the other is cash) and 40.8 percent of assets. Whereas many funds have taken out substantial positions in technology stocks based on where we are in the business cycle, the management of Vanguard Morgan Growth is attracted to the sector’s strong balance sheets.
After being badly burned early in the decade, many leading technology names are sitting on large cash hoards. And strong growth forecasts for the sector make it attractive for managers seeking growth at a reasonable price.
This value sensitivity and eye toward growth has produced a fund with above-average growth characteristics and a lot of upside potential. The sum of these parts is a fund that likely won’t set the world ablaze and tends to lag in aggressive bull markets.
On a five-year basis the fund has outperformed its category by almost a full percent, placing it in the top 38 percent of Morningstar’s Large Growth category. Its long-term performance also places it in the top third of its peers on a 10-year and 15-year basis.
History suggests that the fund will continue to generate respectable returns with slightly less volatility than its competition.
A higher turnover rate (88 percent) can generate substantial trading costs, but that’s offset by a rock-bottom expense ratio of 0.48 percent. And, frankly, given the fund’s top-shelf management team, you have to wonder what sort of favors Vanguard had to call in to keep the management fee at just 0.44 percent per year.
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