Poker Face

One of my favorite films is Rounders, starring Matt Damon and Edward Norton. Damon plays Mike McDermott, a reformed gambler, who stakes his recently released jailbird buddy Lester Murphy (Norton) into some high stakes poker games.

 

Lester wins a big chunk of money but, instead of paying the markers off, walks away with all of his winnings. That leaves Mike on the hook with a very nasty Russian loan shark who isn’t above breaking knee caps–or worse–to collect a debt.

 

To cover the debt, Mike reenters the world of high stakes poker, but being reformed, he doesn’t have the cash to get into the big games and needs someone to stake him. To that end he approaches Joey Knish (John Turturro) for a loan to get him started.

 

Knish is an old school poker player known as a grinder; with alimony payments to make and kids to support, Knish is out to consistently win a lot of small pots rather than score a few big takes here and there.

 

Being acquainted with Lester, aka Worm, Knish refuses to front Mike the money to get started and lectures him on the virtues of earning your way rather than going after the big scores. Long story short, Mike wins enough at the tables but loses his girl and his friends in the process.

 

 As investors and traders, it’s easy to fall into Mike’s mentality–looking for the homers instead of the singles–and suffer the same consequences. The problem is most prevalent among less experienced investors who are often working with smaller position sizes and have been seduced by how easy cable news and many investment websites makes investing seem.

 

But all of us can take a play from the old grinder Knish whose ultimate point was that if you’re playing for the big score, you’re probably spreading yourself too thin and taking on too much risk. The simple fact is, the bulk of our gains come from making a number of trades that return 5 or 10 percent over time. And there’s no shame in picking the low hanging fruit.

 

Exchange traded funds (ETF) have a lot going for them—more diverse than a single stock, more dynamic than a mutual fund, great liquidity for hedge and trading positions.

 And that’s why I not only pen this weekly, but work with my partner Yiannis Mostrous on Global ETF Profits. There’s a lot to talk about and a lot of opportunities.

 

Here, I wanted to focus on how well ETFs fit for newer traders looking to take advantage of big news. Most ETFs are based on indexes that cover countries, industries, sectors and subsectors, so they’re extremely good trading vehicles that react directly and proportionally to market developments.

 

For instance, in a video interview that I did about a month and a half ago, I said investors should buy the Vanguard European ETF (NYSE: VGK) as a play on the Greek debt crisis. Equity markets had sold off as investors were wondering when–and if–the rest of Europe would come to Greece’s rescue.

 

I believed from day one that the European Union (EU) had little choice but to cobble together a bailout package. Under a system in which member states have control over their individual fiscal policies but the broader organization controls the levers of monetary policy, the Greek situation poses a significant test of credibility for the EU which they’re eager to pass.

 

While the details are still in the works, the EU has stepped up to the plate and is building a bailout plan. Since I first talked about Vanguard European ETF about 6 weeks ago, it’s up around 8 percent.

 

Airlines have sold off sharply as a cloud of volcanic ash has engulfed most of Europe for a week now; it’s estimated that airlines are losing at least $1 billion a day in revenues. That’s a major headwind for European airlines, but for most American operators the losses are more equivalent to a bad snow storm that shuts down a regional corridor.

 

Here are a few other ETFs well positioned on today’s top new stories:

 

Claymore/NYSE Arca Airline ETF (NYSE: FAA) has given up a fair amount of ground even though 70 percent of the fund’s holdings are US-based airlines. While they’ll feel some effect from the Icelandic eruption, it won’t be as dramatic as many investors are betting.

 

Market Vectors Poland ETF (NYSE: PLND) has dipped since the tragic plane crash that killed the nation’s president and many of the country’s political elite. While that type of situation would clearly be a challenge for any nation, it’s been surprising how strongly investors have reacted to the news.

 

Many seem to be banking on a high degree of political instability though the country’s governing institutions have matured rapidly since the Solidarity movement helped topple communism across Eastern Europe.

 

SPDR KBW Regional Banking (NYSE: KRE) declined sharply on the news that the Securities and Exchange Commission is pursuing fraud charges against Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) in regards to mortgage investments the firm was selling. But that’s a Wall Street problem that little to do with most regional banks.

 

A major stumbling block for investors using a “trade the news” strategy is always expenses. Commissions and fees can rapidly erode your returns when you’re only expecting gains of a few percent. But again, ETFs offer a sizable advantage in that regard.

 

First off, ETFs offer inherently lower cost structures than mutual funds, typically fees are about half for an ETF. Second, brokers have been tripping over themselves to offer reduced-price and even no-commission ETF trades in order to lure investors through their doors. That was a trend started last year when Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW) fired the first shots in the commission wars, offering free trades on its proprietary line-up of ETFs.

 

None of this is meant to imply that ETFs a best used by traders and short-term investors. But when there’s a clear cut news item that’s driving the markets and your research tells you it’s likely a nonevent, there’s no reason not to take a page from Knish’s playbook and trim some small pots here and there, particularly when costs aren’t a major concern. And lots of small gains can add up to solid total returns over the long haul.

 

Trading the news is just one strategy that we use in Global ETF Profits, in which Yiannis Mostrous and I look for both ten baggers and short-term trading opportunities.

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