Energy Consumption: China versus the US
According to the International Energy Agency, China surpassed the US as the largest energy consumer in 2009. Last year the US consumed 2.169 billion tons of oil equivalent; China consumed 2.252 billion tons of oil equivalent.
Unfortunately, energy consumption data is released on a trailing basis.
Although Americans often complain that the US doesn’t actually make anything these days, almost a third of US energy consumption is related to industry. Transportation–think gasoline–accounts for 28 percent of industrial output, with the remainder split between residential and commercial applications.
And although the US is currently the second-largest energy consumer, bear in mind that the country is slowly clawing its way back from a global recession. Industrial production is inching up at a snail’s pace, manufacturing output fell slightly and less than three-quarters of US productive capacity is at work.
Is it any surprise that US consumption is down, that China has surpassed us as the number one consumer of energy?
Less than 100 million tons of oil equivalent separates the US and China in terms of oil consumption; China’s No. 1 position doesn’t necessarily reflect a seismic shift in global economic power.
US domestic demand still plays a major role in global energy prices; the country consumes a quarter of the world’s energy, whether that’s measured in tons of coal or barrels of oil. That being said, emerging and developing nations account for a growing share of economic activity. The day will come when China’s need for energy will surpass US demand by leaps and bounds.
Today isn’t this day, but given the anemic recovery that’s underway, energy prices could dip in the short term–an outlook that dovetails nicely into what’s new for this week.
What’s New
Direxion Shares, whose name implies the directional nature of its plays, launched both bull and bear funds betting on natural gas and retailers. Direxion Daily Natural Gas Related Bull 2x (NYSE: FCGL) and Direxion Daily Natural Gas Related Bear 2x (NYSE: FCGS) attempt to double the performance of an index of natural gas-related plays on the upside and downside, respectively.
I generally recommend avoiding most leveraged funds, but these offerings have another shortcoming: Many of the companies included in their portfolios also engage in oil exploration and production, which taints the waters for investors seeking to bet on the natural gas market.
UBS E-TRACS Alerian Natural Gas MLP Index (NYSE: MLPG) uses no leverage and tracks a similar theme, though I suspect it is only a matter of time before UBS (NYSE: UBS) unveils a leveraged version.
The fund faces a similar challenge regarding exposure to the oil business, but a lack of leverage reduces exposure to shifts in commodity prices on an absolute basis.
If you’re looking for a natural-gas play, this is one of the better options available on the equity side of the equation.
Finally, iShares launched a new series of nine sector funds (financials, health care, industrials, etc.). I won’t enumerate these offerings individually, but you can find more information by clicking here. These funds’ portfolios are global in nature and exclude the US. If you use a sector-rotation strategy, these new entries could be useful.
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