Low Expectations for Lofty Goals
Homeownership is an American ethos, viewed by consumers as a wealth-building asset and by political wonks as a tool for gathering votes and encouraging participation in government. Real estate-related transactions generate a significant portion of gross domestic product (GDP), and property values are one of the most closely watched economic indicators.
August’s housing data was released this week, and real estate has been in the spotlight. Data released on Monday demonstrated that the National Association of Home Builder’s monthly confidence index remained flat at a low of 13, widely seen as an encouraging sign of stabilization. Tuesday’s housing start data showed that new home construction was up 10.5 percent, leading many pundits to opine that the housing recovery is underway.
All that positivity created a nice pop in SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB) and has generated a fair amount of bullish call options on the ETF.
While I hope I’m wrong, these are bad bets when you consider the fund’s composition. SPDR S&P Homebuilders allocates 32 percent of its assets to homebuilders, 32 percent to materials manufacturers, 27 percent to retailers and manufacturers of home furnishings, and 8 percent to home improvement retailers.
All of those sectors would benefit from resurging home sales, but many investors are ignoring the data underlying the housing starts number. The bulk of the improvement in the construction data stemmed from new multi-family residential construction, namely apartment buildings.
I agree with the builders’ decisions to throw up new apartments. Foreclosure activity has wiped out millions of homeowners’ credit ratings, leading to a huge jump in the number of multigenerational households. Thousands of twenty-something college graduates live with their parents instead of renting an apartment or buying a home. When these folks move into their own place, they’ll most likely rent an apartment.
While that will produce some benefit for the various components of SPDR S&P Homebuilders, the effects won’t be as far-ranging as some suspect. It costs far less to furnish a one- or two-bedroom apartment than it does to fill an empty house, and many of those new renters will shop at their neighborhood thrift store rather than at Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM).
If you want to make a longer-term bet on housing, focus on real estate investment trusts (REIT). Residential REITs are particularly attractive, and my favorite exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the space is iShares FTSE NAREIT Residential Plus Index (NYSE: REZ). The “plus” is in the fund’s name because its portfolio holds health care and self-storage properties in addition to multi-family properties.
The fund has already had quite a run, rising more than 25 percent year to date, but I believe it has further to go. Occupancy rates at apartment complexes increased more in the first half of this year than in all of 2009, but there are still plenty of vacant units across the country. As vacancies continue to decline, profitability will rise.
It would take years for homeownership rates to reach the generational highs from which they’ve fallen–assuming they ever get there. The goal of universal home ownership is admirable, but it’s not realistic. I’d recommend positioning your portfolio to take advantage of a new generation of US renters.
While I firmly believe that one should exercise caution when investing in the US real estate market, I have a more optimistic view of overseas markets.
What’s New
Emerging Markets Consumer Titans (NYSE: ECON) and SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources (NYSE: GNR) launched last Tuesday to relatively little fanfare.
Under the aegis of Emerging Global Shares, which specializes in emerging markets sector funds, Emerging Markets Consumer Titans tracks a market capitalization-weighted index of 30 consumer goods and services companies in emerging market countries. As of Sept. 20, the fund’s top three holdings include Companhia de Bebidas das Americas-AmBev (NYSE: ABV), the Latin American subsidiary of Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD), Wal–Mart de Mexico SAB de CV (Mexico: WALMEXV, OTC: WMMVY), and Fomento Economico Mexicano (MEXICO: FEMSAUB, NYSE: FMX).
Accounting for almost 25 percent of assets, those top three holdings will largely drive the fund’s performance. The fund will live or die by its top ten positions, which account for more than 56 percent of assets. At 16.3 percent of assets, the automobiles and parts industry will also be a major driver of performance.
That composition doesn’t thrill me; I’d prefer the fund’s holdings to be equally weighted. I would also rather see India, Brazil and China ranked higher in the fund’s country weightings. While these markets boast the strongest potential for consumer spending, they’re currently ranked in the second, third and sixth slot, respectively. Mexico is the fund’s largest allocation at 19.88 percent.
Despite these misgivings, I like that the fund takes a broader-stroke approach to emerging market consumers. Recent studies estimate that the middle classes in emerging markets will consume nearly twice as much as their counterparts in the US. Thus far the only funds geared towards those groups are Global X China Consumer (NYSE: CHIQ) and Global X Brazil Consumer (NYSE: BRAQ). I’ve written positively about both of those country-specific consumer funds, and my opinion hasn’t changed. But Emerging Markets Consumer Titans is a good choice for one-stop exposure to the emerging consumer theme, and I expect the fund to catch on quickly.
SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources will have a much steeper hill to climb, having entered an already crowded space. The fund stands out from its peers because it sports a low 0.40 percent expense ratio and evenly divides its exposure between energy, metals and mining, and agriculture. But it has two very similar competitors, Jefferies CRB Global Commodity (NYSE: CRBQ) and iShares S&P North American Natural Resources Securities Index (NYSE: IG), which already hold around $2 billion in assets between them.
I like that the fund’s exposure to producers of the various commodity types is fairly evenly divided–energy often commands the lion’s share of allocations. The fund will also cap exposure to US companies at 40 percent of assets and emerging markets exposure at 15 percent. That’s a balance I haven’t seen before.
Nonetheless, only about 1,000 shares of the ETF trade hands each day, so I’d wait to see if other investors find it appealing before jumping in.
Stock Talk
Add New Comments
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account