Profits and Global Agreements
The real meaning of the midterm elections is still being debated by talking heads and pundits. But the business of governing carries on. With the elections over, President Obama has returned his focus to foreign policy, departing last Friday for a whirlwind Asian tour to promote greater economic and political cooperation.
In India the President underscored the nation’s growing role in the new global order by endorsing India’s bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. In doing so he also reinforced the deep economic ties between India and the US. In 2009 US exports to India reached almost $16.5 billion, while imports of Indian-made goods topped $21 billion.
The Indonesian leg of the President’s trip was aimed at making political inroads with the government. Indonesia is the world’s most populous Muslim nation and an important ally in the region.
His trip is winding down this week with the G-20 meeting in Seoul, South Korea where he will defend the US Federal Reserve’s second round of quantitative easing (QE2).
The program was aimed at jumpstarting the economy by making US exports more attractive and propping up asset prices through dollar devaluation. Most G-20 member states aren’t thrilled with QE2 and have accused the US of firing another broadside in a currency war.
Critics have also voiced concerns that QE2 could fuel a carry trade in which cheap hot money borrowed here finds its way into higher-growth emerging markets and pushes global commodity prices higher. President Obama will make the case that quantitative easing is necessary to ensure a strong American economy which, in turn, is vital to global economic interests.
It remains to be seen whether that argument will be persuasive overseas. Regardless of whether the G-20 meeting produces any tangible outcomes–these meetings are often anticlimactic–there are two exchange-traded funds that should benefit.
The first that comes to mind, iShares MSCI South Korea Index (NYSE: EWY), tracks the economic growth of the meeting’s host. While South Korea is dwarfed by neighboring countries such as Japan, China and Russia, hosting the G-20 is South Korea’s opportunity to demonstrate to the world the power of its vibrant economy.
President Obama and the South Korean government also hope to finalize a modified version of the US-South Korea free trade agreement. The two countries inked a deal in 2007 that flamed out in Congress. A flagging US economy and objections from automakers and beef exporters killed any enthusiasm for further opening our markets. But a new deal addressing previous concerns should find a receptive audience in the new Congress.
Another fund likely to benefit from the meeting is WisdomTree Dreyfus Yuan Fund (NYSE: CYB), which tracks the movement of the Chinese currency, the yuan or the renminbi, against the US dollar. As China’s trade surplus has ballooned, the country has taken fire from trade partners over its devalued currency. The G-20 will provide another opportunity for critics of China’s currency controls to call for a quicker appreciation of the yuan.
It’s difficult to know how much progress will be made toward convincing the Chinese to allow their currency to float, particularly with global tempers still flaring over QE2. A weak currency is helpful for China’s massive export sector, and Chinese policymakers are loath to appear as if they’re bowing to international pressure.
Despite that, I expect that the Chinese will continue to allow the yuan to appreciate slowly, which will drive incremental gains in WisdomTree Dreyfus Yuan Fund.
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