Clearing Out Short-Term Opportunities
Once again, it has been a pleasure to help you navigate the exchange-traded fund (ETF) space over the past two years. I look forward to continuing to help you meet your investment goals with my market-beating Fund Portfolio in Personal Finance.
Although I will continue to cover many of our Global ETF Profits Portfolio holdings in Personal Finance, I am concluding coverage of all holdings in our Short-Term Opportunities Portfolio.
Nevertheless, I remain positive on iShares MSCI Germany Index (NYSE: EWG) despite the problems plaguing the eurozone.
Business sentiment has undeniably softened in Germany, and its economy contracted by 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of last year. But even as 12 European economies have slipped into recession, Germany appears to have dodged a recession.
While official gross domestic product (GDP) data for the first quarter won’t be released until May 15, export data shows that Germany has enjoyed two consecutive months of record-setting export growth. As a result, Germany’s first-quarter GDP growth reading is expected to be in positive territory.
That solid performance is largely due to the fact that a growing percentage of Germany’s business is done outside the eurozone, with China and other major emerging markets becoming significant trading partners. These relationships have boosted Germany’s factory orders and industrial output. That effectively creates a cushion for the German economy. It also creates a situation in which Germany could be the force that ultimately pulls Europe out of recession.
Although investor sentiment on Europe has soured in the wake of the past weekend’s elections in France and Greece, investors remain fairly positive on Germany, as evidenced by the 9.3 percent gain in the DAX Index year to date. Germany boasts the best-performing equity market in the region, reflecting the fact that Germany has the eurozone’s strongest economy, even if it takes a modest hit due to the region’s debt crisis.
That’s driven a gain of better than 6 percent on our position in iShares MSCI Germany Index over the past nine months.
The ETF tracks the country’s 50 largest companies, with significant exposure to German industrial concerns. That exposure includes iconic names such as Siemens (Germany: SIE), BASF (Germany: BAS) and Daimler (Germany: DAI). The fund also has a heavy allocation toward healthcare names, such as Bayer (Germany: BAYN) at 11.7 percent of assets. These companies do substantial volumes of business outside Europe, particularly in the emerging markets, which should help insulate them from a European slowdown.
The ETF also offers an attractive valuation versus the S&P 500. While the S&P has a price-to-book ratio of 2.1, iShares MSCI Germany Index’s portfolio has a price to book of just 1.3. Additionally, the fund’s portfolio is currently trading at a discount in terms of prices to sales at just 0.58.
With a modest annual expense ratio of 0.53 percent, iShares MSCI Germany Index is an inexpensive way to play the long-term strength of the German economy.
Continue buying iShares MSCI Germany Index under 25.
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