News and Notes
Following the Brexit vote, most of our holdings have declined more or less in line with the broader tech sector. Given how turbulent the global markets are, that’s really not much of a surprise. That said, two of our holdings have taken bigger hits than the others, largely thanks to their greater exposure to the European markets.
Shares of Trimble Navigation (NSDQ: TRMB) have fallen by about 8% since the Brexit vote, largely thanks to the fact that about a quarter of its annual revenue comes from Europe. I don’t see the Brexit having a huge impact on Trimble’s business specifically though, particularly since aside from corn and wheat, agricultural commodity prices have been stable to slightly rising in some cases. I don’t see that trend changing without another global recession, which I think is unlikely, and spending on agtech is more dependent on agricultural prices. As long as farmers and making money and think they will continue making money, they’ll still buy technology like navigation-assisted tractors.
Zendesk (NYSE: ZEN) has fallen by more than 10% and, in this case, there might be a bit more reason to worry. The company makes software that helps businesses track client activity ranging from recurring issues to overall customer satisfaction, then make sense of that data. About 30% of the company’s revenue comes from Europe and given all the uncertainty in the region, it is possible we’ll see a dip in business investment going forward. For instance, companies headquarter in London right now simply to have tariff-free access to the E.U. may find themselves relocating to the continent.
Until we get a better sense of the mechanics of the Brexit and what sort of trade relationships will be maintained, more discretionary investments like Zendesk’s software are likely to be delayed. That said, more than half of Zendesk’s revenue comes from here in the U.S. and it has about $250 million of cash and liquid investments on its balance sheet, so I don’t see any reason why it can’t weather this current crisis.
Despite their outsized drops vis-à-vis the broader Nasdaq, I think this is a solid buying opportunity for Zendesk on dips under $25 and Trimble Navigation under $30.
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