Buying American Keeps Brexit Risks Low

The U.K.’s stunning vote to exit the EU shot a big dose of ambiguity into global investing. When asked about the vote’s impact to their companies, many global CEOs drew a blank. Changes in tax laws, trade agreements and employment for an “independent” U.K. can’t even be analyzed until the magnitude and degree of change are known.

We’ve been tracking international risk for the Growth Stock Strategist portfolio. Even before Brexit, I was worried about the rocky economies of China and Europe. China is tumbling off a government-funded construction boom and may or may not stick the landing. Europe is still recovering from the 2008 financial collapse. For these reasons I’ve been focusing on stocks with little international business.

The stock market hates uncertainty and responded to Brexit as you’d expect. A quick 5% drop in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index and the 
London-based FTSE index was followed by a dramatic rebound when it became clear to investors that the only predictable result from Brexit would be lower interest rates. Cutting rates, a central bank’s favorite tool in turbulent times, seemed like an obvious remedy.

Although lower rates propel investors into stocks, running to foreign stocks in Brexit’s wake isn’t a shrewd move. In fact, I’m recommending that investors take advantage of this rally by trimming positions with European risk.p4 brexit proof table

Growth Stock Strategist’s focus on smaller-cap U.S. stocks means none of our picks have much international exposure. Overall, Russell 2000 stocks generate less than 20% of their revenue overseas, versus almost 40% for companies in the S&P 500.

Most stocks in the Growth Stock Strategist portfolio generate at least 90% of their revenue domestically (see table).

Express (NYSE: EXPR), Installed Building Products (NYSE: IBP) and Supreme Industries (NSDQ: STS) collect all of their revenue from customers in the U.S. Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Apogee Enterprises (NSDQ: APOG) and On Assignment (NYSE: ASGN) collect less than 10% of their revenue outside of the U.S.

Exactech (NYSE: EXAC) and Gentex (NYSE: GNTX), both rated hold because of their high valuations, have the most European exposure with 30% to 45% of their revenue coming from Europe.

Cray (NSDQ: CRAY) receives 36% of its revenue from customers outside of the U.S. I’m not terribly worried about this number as most of Cray’s customers are large educational or research institutions that weather short-term economic trends well.

Integrated Device Technology’s (NSDQ: IDTI) and Lattice Semiconductor’s (NSDQ: LSCC) numbers merit some explanation. These companies make components that tech manufacturers buy. Almost every mass manufacturer of any electronic product resides in Asia. Although the bulk of these products are shipped to Asia, the end demand for them is distributed throughout developed countries.

By mid-August all of the stocks in the Growth Stock Strategist portfolio will have reported June quarter earnings. (Apogee is the exception, with a second quarter ending in August.) We’ll be listening closely for any guidance that Brexit is crimping demand, but we don’t expect a swerve from current trends.

Although stocks with less international business will not be immune from Brexit’s ramifications, the blow will be muted. For example, if a customer of On Assignment is a U.S.-based technology firm developing a product for a European partner, a cutback in orders from that partner would ripple back indirectly to On Assignment.

The U.S. economy is by no means robust, but steady and strong employment growth is laying a solid foundation. Home sales and new home starts are growing in the low double digits. Consumers are cautiously but steadily spending, and with the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise rates indefinitely on hold, the credit spigot should remain open.

So while the stock market frantically analyzes each word from Downing Street, we’ll be spending our time researching domestic stocks with the most exposure to healthy, growing industries.

 

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