Tech Stocks Miss theIR Mark; A Supreme Score

Despite solid results from several holdings, some of our tech stocks missed big time. As I’ve mentioned before, I’ve put stop-loss limits on the entire portfolio and continue to look for new names enjoying above-average growth. By their nature, growth stocks can be bumpy as growth rarely comes in a straight line.

My job is to discern between a one-time event and the start of a trend. I’m confident that the bumps we witnessed this quarter are due to isolated events and growth will resume.

We sold Supreme Industries, our star performer that earned an A+ on a 50% earnings beat. The stock has been a giant winner, up 50% in the four months since our recommendation. While I hate to say goodbye to a company executing extraordinarily well, a gain like that is too tempting to pass up. We’ll be watching this name closely with the hope of adding it back at a better price later on.report card

Apogee (NSDQ: APOG) earned an A- by beating earnings estimates 17% and raising numbers slightly for the year. Concerns about a drop in the company’s backlog muted excitement over that performance. Management has noted before that Apogee’s backlog is an inherently lumpy number due to the timing of large orders from commercial builders. Apogee reiterated its bullish stance and confirmed that its bidding activity and deals in the pipeline haven’t changed.

Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH) earned a B+, an impressive showing for any retailer. It beat estimates 10% and is proving to be a reliable growth company. The introduction of a Disney-related children’s furniture line in November and success with a quick-ship custom upholstery program should drive earnings higher.

On Assignment (NSDQ: ASGN), Exactech (NSDQ: EXAC) and Gentex (NSDQ: GNTX) all earned a slightly above-average B-. On Assignment’s earnings increased 31%. Guidance was just in line with estimates and reflects a tough comparison with the third quarter of last year when the company enjoyed a surge in demand from several customers. Exactech and Gentex, both rated “hold” due to valuation, beat earnings by a penny and did not adjust estimates. I continue to look for higher growth from these two holdings, which would merit upgrading both stocks to a buy.

A whopping five stocks each received an F for missing estimates. Cray (NSDQ: CRAY), Integrated Device Technology (NSDQ: IDTI) and Lattice Semiconductor (NSDQ: LSCC) all missed earnings and revenue numbers. The common thread for these stocks is that they are in technology, a sector notorious for volatility.

Cray was by far the worst performer. Our belief that Cray would finally have access to high-end chips from NVIDIA and Intel and start shipping supercomputers this quarter was too optimistic. Although the new chips are available and orders are shipping, the company blamed a delay from some large customers and a fire at a facility for cutting estimates. The market mercilessly whipped Cray, and after its 30% beating, the stock is simply too cheap to sell now. I’ve put an $18 limit on the stock, but I expect it will come back as orders have not been cancelled but just pushed out a quarter.

Integrated Devices lost one of its largest customers, which brought its chip making in house. Management was clearly surprised by this but offered some consolation with the double-digit growth of its automotive and industrial business. The stock quickly regained its loss and is looking solid.

Integrated Building Products (NYSE: IBP), another new holding, earned an F mostly due to our super-strict policy of deducting one point for each percent of the earnings miss. The company missed estimates by just 2 cents due to integrating one of its acquisitions. All data, however, points to continued demand for the company’s building products.

Omnova (NYSE: OMN), our newest holding, suffered from a delay at a customer’s manufacturing plant but otherwise had a strong showing. Management said the plant is coming online and the lost business should be recouped by year-end. We’re giving the company a grace period of one quarter but are keeping a close watch on it.

Stock Talk

Rocco Consalvo

Rocco Consalvo

Linda,Linda, a little patience. Four big pluses as of 9/29/16. Three of your picks and one oops by me are doing fine. STS, Bought 6/15/16. 200 sh. @ $12.53. Sold 9/29/16 @ $19.13. 53% up.On your advice. LSCC.Bought 5/19/16 200 sh. @ $5.39. As of 9/29/16 $6.48. 20% up.
IDTI.Bought 7/14/16 200 sh. @ $20.69. As of 9/29/16 $22.74. 10% up.
Finally, IDT. Bought 7/14/16 100 sh. @ $15.20. As of 9/29/16 $17.27. 13% up. This one I left an
I off of IDTI. A good luck stock. No F grades in this group. Rocco.

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Rocco,
Thank you for the kind words. It is incredibly rewarding for me to know subscribers are making profitable trades from these ideas. I appreciate you taking the time to let me know.
Best,
Linda

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