Clinton or Trump? Hedge Your Bets
By the time next month’s issue of Growth Stock Strategist is published, the election will be over. The endless loop of bickering heads will be laid to rest, unfortunately along with some of the best “Saturday Night Live” political satire in a long time.
I’ve been researching which groups might receive a welcome lift come Nov. 9. Although it takes some time before legislative wish lists are enacted, certain industries will see their stocks bought or sold based on just investor sentiment surrounding the newly elected president’s agenda.
The market hates uncertainty, and this election holds more uncertainty than most. We’ve had the same president for eight years. Since 1928, the S&P 500 index dropped an average 2.8% in election cycles that do not include an incumbent. No incumbent guarantees the market will have to adjust to a brand new leader regardless of the winner. This election year has been kinder to the market than most. The S&P 500 is up 4.75% year to date and the Russell 2000 is up 7%.
Congress is also up for grabs. While many grouse at how stalemates with Congress have impeded change, the upshot has been few legislative surprises for the market. Recent polls show a 60% chance the Senate may flip to the Democrats. The chance for a similar shift in the House is less likely but still possible.
Red or Blue Winners
There’s little that Clinton and Trump agree on. One bright spot, however, is infrastructure investment. Both agree that more federal dollars need to be allocated to rebuilding our bridges, roads and transportation projects. Our recent portfolio addition, U.S. Concrete (NSDQ: USCR) should be a benefactor of increased spending on infrastructure.
Also likely to enjoy a rally regardless of which candidate is elected president are drugmakers. The S&P Pharmaceutical exchange-traded fund is down 17% year-to-date and down 10% since mid-September, when the Mylan EpiPen pricing controversy erupted. Investors have sold this group off because of fears that a Clinton victory will result in price controls for pharmaceuticals. While the days of audacious price increases are waning, many drugmakers will prosper from an an overwhelmingly older population that propels higher demand for medications.
Energy stocks may see some whiplash with the election results. The one group that certainly would see a lift from a Trump win would be coal. Trump has repeatedly said he would support a resurgence of the coal industry—though he’s fuzzy on the details.
Clinton supports green initiatives to reduce carbon emission and would likely continue along with legislation laid out in the 2015 Paris Agreement. While solar stocks may do well under this regime, I’m also looking at chemical and building stocks that help reduce carbon emissions.
U.S. Concrete, for example, has a new concrete product that produces significantly less carbon dioxide when made. Specialty chemical companies such as Omnova (NYSE: OMN) may also see demand lifted higher as their products help to reduce energy use.
Doves and Hawks
Historically the stock market has delivered muted returns during the early years of a new president’s term. The Stock Trader’s Almanac notes that since 1833 the Dow Jones gained between 2.5% and 4% in the first two years of a presidency.
Yet the Dow exploded 27% in President Obama’s first term in 2009, when the economy was crawling out of a deep recession. The truth is that the action of the Federal Reserve, which calibrates the direction of interest rates, has a more immediate sway on the direction of stocks. Janet Yellen, current Fed chair, is the resident dove—a Fed member who favors raising rates cautiously and slowly.
Her continued presence, along with the end of the election, should propel the market higher. As always, more information is always better for the stock market. Whether a donkey or an elephant sits in the Oval Office, investors will soon have a clearer picture of which policies will be pushed and which industries will flourish or flounder.
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