Ending on a High Note

The final numbers won’t be in until the end of next week, but I don’t need them to know that 2016 turned into a pretty good year for this newsletter.

While the average return of our recommendations trailed the benchmark Alerian MLP Index at mid-year, I have high hopes that we’ve at least caught up in the second half thanks to numerous recent portfolio additions that became big winners.

The Marcellus growth play CONE Midstream Partners (NYSE: CNNX) has returned 79% over eight months. We also struck pay dirt in coal with the two Alliance MLPs (ARLP and AHGP, good for 54% and 44% respectively so far since June), alongside other new niche picks like Suburban Propane Partners (NYSE: SPH), Enviva Partners (NYSE: EVA) and Macquarie Infrastructure (NYSE: MIC).

And some of the large pipeline operators left for dead last winter have come roaring back. Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) is up 31% year-to-date before considering distributions, and the unit price has nearly quadrupled in the nine months since we sent out a buy alert the day after a 42% plunge.

Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE) is up 73% year-to-date without counting the yield, and was already up a lot when it agreed to merge with Enbridge (NYSE: ENB).

Which isn’t to say that there haven’t been losers or other causes for regrets. As always, we’ll acknowledge the bad along with the good when we tally the annual portfolio performance in next month’s issue.

Right now I have bigger fish to fry, such as advising you not to wait if you’ve set some money aside in hopes of catching a deeper midstream correction. I don’t think one is coming. Instead, a number of key MLP charts have either broken out to the upside (MMP, TLLP) or are flashing the potential to do so in short order (EPD, ETP).

If you’d like to try your hand at leveraged speculation on this theme, the AMJ Jan. 20 $30 calls is what I’ve recommended over at The Energy Strategist.

None of this means we start the new year with a  rip-roaring MLP rally, of course. But with U.S. shale drilling ramping up once more, excess output largely purged from the global energy markets and a presidential administration that couldn’t be any more committed to fossil fuels about to take over, the odds of a strong start look better than decent.

As the Portfolio Update in this issue suggests, many pipeline operators are still coping with low commodity margins and diminished throughput volumes. But those are problems that higher energy prices can cure, and higher energy prices over the next year or two still seem likely.

In any case, we saw what the cash flows looked like at the energy slump’s nadir last winter, and while it wasn’t pretty is also was far from the end of the world for most midstream operators.

It almost looked like the end of the world for a while for Williams (NYSE: WMB) earlier this year, but the gas giant has tackled its many problems vigorously and well in recent months. In Focus highlights the changes that have earned WMB an upgrade.

Meanwhile, gas driller EQT (NYSE: EQT) is back among Best Buys, taking the place of Cedar Fair (NYSE: FUN) after that stock’s recent rally. Given EQT’s long-term advantages the recent selling that has discounted its share price seems short-sighted.

There are other bargains out there, and we’re working on finding some new ones to recommend early in the new year. In the meantime, here’s to a happy ending for 2016. It’s certainly been an adventure.

 

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