Do You Hear (Robot) Footsteps?
President Donald Trump believes that too many jobs are being shipped overseas to take advantage of cheaper labor, and he has threatened protective tariffs to bring those jobs home. What’s mainly killing jobs, though, is automation: We’re losing more jobs to technology than to foreign workers.
Most scholars agree that technology is the bigger threat to American job security. A study from Ball State’s Center for Business and Economic Research estimated that of the 5.6 million manufacturing jobs lost between 2000 and 2010, 85% were because of innovation and automation. Right now, robots are doing about 10% of all manufacturing work, according to the Boston Consulting Group, but that’s expected to jump to 25% over the next eight years.
By 2025 robots and automation will have reduced labor costs 18% to 33%, thanks to fewer wages paid and cheaper robots. It’s not hard to do the math, especially if you’re running a publicly traded company and your bonus is based on the bottom line.
So we have a perfect set of conditions that allow the machines to take our jobs. Plus, we have a president who says he’s willing to take steps to force companies to do more of their work here in the U.S., ostensibly to create jobs. But we haven’t heard him say those jobs can’t be automated.
Given that, buying stock in companies that specialize in things like automation, machine learning and artificial intelligence isn’t just a smart investment. It could also be an insurance policy if the machines come for your own job.
We’re recommending two automation companies: Giant ($48 billion market cap) Switzerland-based ABB and smaller Massachusetts-based Cognex Corp. with a $5.7 billion market cap. Both are dominant players in their respective sectors of the machine revolution, and both are expected to reap the rewards when automation around the globe kicks into an even higher gear.
Great Wall of Robots
While ABB (NYSE: ABB) is best known as a maker of power transmission and distribution equipment, it is also one of the top three players in industrial automation, which accounts for more than a quarter of revenue. ABB also happens to be the only major global robotics maker to build robots in the U.S., opening a new plant in Michigan last year.
The company says that it has installed more than 300,000 robots, including 600 in production lines of Great Wall Motor’s, one of China’s leading auto manufacturers. Manufacturing-related robotics account for about 70% of ABB’s automation sales, followed by transportation and infrastructure (20%) and utilities (10%). All of its robotics customers tend to be loyal, given the high costs of switching to another robotics maker, and often order multiple units over several years.
Revenue and earnings at ABB took a hit in 2014 and 2015, as sagging economic confidence hurt orders for energy infrastructure equipment. The company has the disadvantage of operating in Swiss francs while reporting in dollars, which made results look worse than they really are.
That said, although revenue is expected to fall from $35.5 billion in 2015 to $33.8 billion in 2016, full-year earnings per share should rise from 87 cents to 98 cents. That growth trend should have staying power for at least the next few years.
The stock is a bit expensive, trading at 28.8 times trailing earnings compared to 24.2 times for the industrials sector. The share price is also near a 52-week high, which some might find concerning. But considering that ABB is doing advanced work in robotics just as we’re entering a new machine age, plus it pays a 3.4% dividend yield, I think it can sustain a higher-than-average valuation.
Buy ABB up to $30.
Critical Sight
Robots that can “see” are critical to most robotic manufacturing systems; they must be able to determine that whatever they’re working on is in the correct spot, identify flaws and flag errors. Those capabilities allow robots to perform more complicated tasks with fewer errors. The robotic systems used to operate warehouses also must be able to see to navigate the warehouse floor and find components
Cognex Corp. (NSDQ: CGNX) is one of the leading makers of those visual sensing systems, with more than 1 million installed. You’ll find its vision sensors, software and systems in automotive plants, food-processing and beverage-manufacturing facilities, and electronics manufacturers. Cognex’s products detect defects, monitor production, identify and sort parts, and guide assembly robots.
The demand for visual systems and robotics has created significant growth for the company. Revenue has been growing at 7.4% annualized over the past nine years and is expected to have shot up 12.8% in 2016 when full-year results are released. At 19.7% annualized, earnings per share grew faster over the same nine years, thanks to savvy management and an operating margin of better than 30%.
That said, EPS is expected to fall from $2.13 in 2015 to $1.58 in 2016, though that’s because of higher spending on research and development. That investment is paying off with Cognex’s new In-Sight VC200 system, which can connect and manage up to four smart cameras simultaneously. That’s an important breakthrough, solving the problem of inspection tasks that require multiple views and that would have required multiple steps before the VC200 was introduced.
With the automation trend accelerating, demand for vision systems like those that Cognex produces will only grow. Many investors recognize this or the stock wouldn’t be trading at 42.8 times trailing earnings. Still, I believe there’s enough growth ahead to justify the high valuation.
Buy Congnex Corp. up to $72.
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