Three Coal Bin Bargains
A master limited partnership that’s not making distributions but still generating potential tax liabilities? Sure, sign us up. No, really.
Foresight Energy (NYSE: FELP) is an MLP mining high-quality thermal and metallurgical coal. Unlike many of its competitors, Foresight has avoided bankruptcy. But the debt restructuring it went through last year wasn’t much more fun.
Foresight had to restructure after an equity investment in its general partner by Murray Energy triggered a change of control clause, entitling its bondholders to cash out.
The subsequent liquidity crunch forced the partnership to suspend its quarterly distributions, though they continue to accrue and could well be paid off with arrears once the balance sheet is on firmer footing.
Talks with bondholders finally produced a settlement in August. It replaced $600 million of senior notes due 2021 with two new securities. FELP now owes $350 million on notes still maturing in 2021 but paying an increased cash interest rate of 9%, rising to 10% in 2018. It also owes $300 million on notes earning an annual interest rate of 15%, payable in additional FELP equity, until October 2017. Then those notes must be paid off, or else their holders end up with 75% of total FELP equity.
Between the suspended distribution, refinancing worries and the coal industry’s epic downturn, the unit price slumped from nearly $18 the day the Murray investment was announced in March 2015 to barely more than a $1 a year later. It has since rebounded above $7, about where it was a year ago.
But the underlying earnings power has declined much less drastically. Foresight’s four mining complexes in the Illinois basin produced 14 million tons of coal during the first nine months of 2016, a 14% drop from a year earlier in line with diminished power industry demand that has since rebounded. Realized prices net of transportation costs were down just 1% year-over-year at $44 per ton, double the cash cost of FELP’s output.
Source: Foresight Energy
During the October quarter that marked the start of a recovery for the industry, I estimate FELP still generated 50 cents per unit of distributable cash flow even after subtracting payments-in-kind on its debt. At the current unit price that works out to a 27% annualized yield, not that FELP is likely to pay anything over the next year.
The play here is to speculate on a refinancing this year that doesn’t turn over the bulk of the equity to the bondholders. By late 2018, under the terms of its debt restructuring, FELP should be able to start making up on its dividend arrears to common unitholders. Those arrears are accumulating at the minimum quarterly distribution rate of 33.75 cents per unit.
Between the current moratorium on distributions, the refi risk and the danger of a renewed coal downturn, FELP certainly falls into the “cheap for lots of reasons” pile. It doesn’t help that unitholders remain liable for taxes on the income the partnership reports even though they’re not getting paid at the moment.
But the equity could easily double in price over the next year with a bare minimum of luck rather than a real coal boom. And that outcome seems considerably more probable than a unitholder wipeout at this point. We’re adding Foresight to the Aggressive Portfolio. Buy FELP below $9.
Contura Energy (OTC: CNTE) is another coal miner to own. If the name doesn’t ring a bell, that’s because it was formed last summer as part of the restructuring of the insolvent Alpha Natural Resources, previously the second-largest U.S. coal miner. Owned mostly by ANR’s top-tier creditors, Contura ended up with its predecessor’s most attractive assets and net debt of less than $300 million, vs. ANR’s $7.3 billion in liabilities when it filed for bankruptcy.
Contura is not an MLP, nor does it pay a distribution. But it is one of the most attractive priced energy assets I’ve come across of late.
Source: Contura Energy
Contura’s 11 Appalachian mining complexes and two open pit mines in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin have shipped nearly 34 million tons of coal over the last year, including 3.1 tons of met coal. The Pennsylvania and Wyoming mines produce thermal coal for domestic power plants while those in Virginia and West Virginia extract met coal, primarily for export.
Contura also ended up with 1.4 billion tons of proven and probable coal reserves and ANR’s majority stake in a Virginia coal export terminal, as well as all of Alpha’s key executives.
Upon exiting bankruptcy protection in July, the company projected 2017 EBITDA of $268 million, based on coal prices that have since moved up. In particular, metallurgical coal accounting for 38% of recent revenue saw dramatic pricing gains toward the end of 2016.
Even if these pull back a bit, Contura now seems likely to post 2017 EBITDA of $300 million to $400 million and a free cash flow yield above 20% on the current $1.1 billion in enterprise value.
That’s well below better known coal stocks. As a recent bankruptcy graduate, Contura still trades over the counter and has no sell-side coverage of the kind that might eventually make it more popular.
Management is committed to listing on a recognized exchange and to selling at least 10% of its equity on behalf of the major shareholders in a public offering during the first half of the year.
We are adding CNTE to the aggressive portfolio. Buy below $85.
CONSOL Energy (NYSE: CNX) is another coal industry survivor, though it expects to derive slightly more profit from natural gas drilling on its extensive Marcellus and Utica footprint than from its low-cost Appalachian coal mines this year.
Its other strength lies in shareholder-management that has escaped the straits of many of its rivals by ruthlessly cutting costs, not issuing equity and living within cash flow even last year. That meant idling all its rigs in the spring when natural gas prices hit multi-year lows and coal also went into a tailspin.
Source: CONSOL Energy
Gas output is expected to grow 5% this year and then, thanks to the three rigs CONSOL plans to operate by the year’s end, 17% in 2018.
The recent separation of the drilling joint venture with Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL) provided a significant production boost as well as an immediate cash payoff and more acreage in a newly consolidated core. To get all that, CONSOL gave up suspended cost-sharing arrangements that would not have resumed without a sustained period of significantly higher natural gas prices.
The stock was a big winner for The Energy Strategist last year but has pulled back 16% since hitting an 18-month high in early December. It remains down 60% from the 2014 peak. Debt is at $3 billion, down by $600 million over the last year. Current enterprise value is at 9x CONSOL’s forecast for 2017 EBITDA.
CONSOL owns half of the general partner of the CONE Midstream Partners (NYSE: CNNX) MLP, one of the big winners last year in our Growth Portfolio. We’re adding CNX to the Aggressive Portfolio. Buy below $23.
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