This has so far been a good year for MLPs, but Enbridge Energy Partners (NYSE: EEP) has been a glaring exception. Its unit price is down a whopping 31% since Jan. 26, when the partnership warned that  distributable cash flow would decline 15-20% from the 2016 total as reported last week.

Management left little doubt that a distribution cut is coming, but didn’t announce one pending the completion of the strategic review by sponsor Enbridge (NYSE: ENB) sometime in the second quarter.

EEP blamed the drilling slowdown and low prices plaguing its gas gathering and processing operations, as well as modest drag on the revenue it earns shipping crude from North Dakota eastward. Rising maintenance and interest costs are contributing as much as, if not more than, weak industry fundamentals to the shortfall.

On the plus side, the main business of moving Canadian crude to the Midwest, Northeast and the Gulf Coast continues to thrive. Since it accounts for the bulk of EEP’s cash flow and is largely backed by stable long-term contracts, the partnership’s profitability is unlikely to deteriorate much further.

Management said Enbridge doesn’t plan to buy out EEP following the sponsor’s merger with Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE), which is slated to close by the end of March. Nor does Enbridge seem likely at this point to fold all of EEP into Spectra’s MLP affiliate Spectra Energy Partners (NYSE: SEP).

With EEP expected to remain its principal U.S. affiliate, the parent company is instead considering additional support measures. And that means it’s unlikely to cut the payout by more than the 30-35% necessary to turn the currently deficit in the distribution coverage into a surplus.

A 35% cut from current levels would result in coverage of 1.1x at the low end of the 2017 cash flow guidance. That cut would leave EEP units yielding north of 8% on an annualized basis at their current price. But the partnership does face higher outlays starting next year under a prior deal that eased the burden of incentive distribution rights. Enbridge is now considering restructuring these yet again to preserve EEP as an investment-grade funding vehicle.

Investors hate uncertainty and there’s way too much of that at EEP right now, so the price has been discounted accordingly. But the sponsor will be North America’s largest midstream company following the Spectra merger, and the Canadian crude shipping business supplying the bulk of EEP’s cash continues to grow. So the downside from current levels looks modest.

Once Enbridge resets the distribution and provides clarity on other support measures the price should bounce back to the vicinity of $21, consistent with a fully-covered 7% yield. We’re upgrading EEP and its dividend-paying proxy Enbridge Energy Management (NYSE: EEQ) to a Buy below $20 in the Conservative Portfolio.