Portfolio Update
Last quarter, we observed that there’s light at the end of the tunnel for Finning International Inc. (TSX: FTT, OTC: FINGF). Now that we’ve seen the company’s first-quarter results, it looks like Finning has emerged from the tunnel and is ready to bask in the sunlight, at least once its dramatic earnings turnaround also becomes a sales turnaround.
Finning, which is construction equipment giant Caterpillar’s largest global dealer, reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surged 47.4% year over year, to C$0.28, despite the fact that sales declined 6.0%, to C$1.4 billion.
This performance blew past analyst expectations, exceeding EPS estimates by 27.3% and even delivering a 1.7% upside surprise on sales.
On the sales front, the company’s operations in South America added meaningfully to the top line, with sales jumping 16.3%, to C$500 million. However, Canadian sales dropped 18.9%, to C$691 million, while revenue from the U.K. held steady.
Once again, it was Finning’s disciplined operating performance that won the day, with operating income from its Canadian segment nearly doubling, to C$47 million. Meanwhile, operating profits in South American jumped 31.3%, to C$42 million, while the U.K. moved from being in the red by C$4 million last year to producing C$8 million in segment profits this year.
Management attributed the firm’s operational excellence to its focus on optimizing the equipment supply chain. For instance, the company collects data from customers’ machines and utilizes predictive forecasting to better align equipment orders from Caterpillar with actual sales.
These forward-thinking initiatives have enabled Finning to continue reducing operating costs, which dropped 9.1% year over year. As a leaner and meaner company, Finning is leveraged to the eventual rebound in the resource-oriented sectors that it serves.
In the near term, however, management maintains a cautious outlook, noting that market conditions remain uncertain across its territories.
Looking ahead, analysts forecast earnings per share will grow 34% for the full year, to C$1.18, on a 2% rise in sales, to C$5.7 billion. After a long period of caution regarding the stock, analyst sentiment is starting to turn bullish again, with five “buys,” three “holds,” and one “sell.” The consensus 12-month target price is C$29.38, which suggests potential appreciation of 9.8% from the current share price.
It’s been two years since Finning last boosted its dividend. Although management expects the business to generate C$300 million in free cash flow this year, for now the company is prioritizing retiring debt and repurchasing shares over boosting its payout.
With a yield of 2.8%, Finning is a buy below C$26, or US$20.
TMX Group Ltd. (TSX: X, OTC: TMXXF) reported decent first-quarter results, with adjusted earnings per share climbing 11%, to C$1.11, on a 4.7% rise in sales, to C$186.1 million.
However, given the company’s blockbuster performance last year, the market expected more. The quarter’s results missed analyst estimates by 9.2% on the bottom line, while also falling short of sales forecasts by 3.1%.
Of particular note, this was TMX’s first earnings miss in five quarters. Consequently, the share price dropped nearly 7% during the trading session following the earnings announcement, which came just several days after the stock had hit an all-time high.
The biggest driver for the quarter was the company’s capital formation segment, which grew revenue 16.1% year over year, to C$44.8 million, thanks to a jump in the number of initial public offerings as well as a big increase in venture financings.
TMX owns the Toronto Stock Exchange and other marketplaces that are home to most of the equity, bond, and derivatives trading in Canada. The company also provides clearing services as well as data, indexes, and connections to markets in Canada and around the world. Though TMX dominates the Canadian market, it’s facing increasing encroachment from rivals.
To maintain its market share and improve profitability, TMX initiated a strategic realignment in 2015 and is in the second year of executing on that plan, which seems to be bearing fruit. During the earnings call, CEO Lou Eccleston stated that management is focusing on generating sustained bottom-line growth this year.
Looking ahead, analysts forecast that last year’s heady growth will moderate to a 5% rise in earnings per share for the full year, to C$4.72, on a 2% increase in sales, to C$756.8 million.
Analyst sentiment toward the stock remains neutral, with one “buy,” four “holds,” and no “sells.” The consensus 12-month target price is C$78.00, which suggests potential appreciation of 6.5% from the current share price.
Although the market may have been disappointed by TMX Group’s earnings growth, the company gave income investors a nice bonus. The board boosted the dividend for the second time in the past 12 months, bringing the quarterly payout to C$0.50, or C$2.00 annualized. The dividend was increased 11.1% from the prior quarter and is up 25% from a year ago.
Management noted that at this level, the company’s payout ratio, at 52.4% for the quarter, is now aligned with that of its domestic and global peers.
With a forward yield of 2.7%, TMX is a buy below C$69, or US$52.
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