Portfolio Update: From Blockchains to Blockheads
The key to making money is to read between the lines. Most people take headlines at face value. It’s my job to find the story behind the story. I try to adopt the contrary view. The biggest profits are made by betting against conventional wisdom.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at new developments in our portfolio.
- NVIDIA (NSDQ: NVDA)
NVIDIA is the top maker of graphical processing units. These chips allow a computer to present graphics. This much is well known. Here’s an underappreciated NVDA strength: “blockchains” that use the company’s chips.
Blockchains started with cryptocurrencies. These are digital ways to exchange money. The money isn’t physical. The exchanges are recorded in blockchains, which form the infrastructure of cryptocurrencies.
Every cryptocurrency is linked to a blockchain, which is a computer database of transactions in the currency. This database is distributed to its creators, called “miners.” These miners add transactions to the blockchain.
Cryptocurrencies are secured by encryption. Governments can’t mess with them. Cryptocurrencies are safe havens in a crisis. Think “digital gold.”
Blockchains have other uses. They let businesses store encrypted data in a ledger. Blockchains are used in finance, supply chains, and data storage. This gives NVIDIA prospects in commerce.
This week, Bitcoin reached $10,000 per token. Two months ago, Bitcoin was at $5,000. Year to date, Bitcoin has risen 1,000% in value.
Don’t invest in cryptocurrencies. They’re too risky. But the popularity of blockchains is a boon for NVIDIA. This fact is given short shrift. Analysts focus on the gaming applications of its products.
NVDA remains a buy up to $250.
- Himax Technologies (NSDQ: HIMX)
Over the past month, HIMX shares have soared 26%. Over the past five days, shares have jumped 7%.
Readers have asked me why. Other than being a sound stock, there doesn’t appear to be a catalyst. The semiconductor maker hasn’t released big news.
Compared to its three-month average, recent trading volume of HIMX has been only slightly higher. That means we can rule out a possible suitor scooping up shares before making an acquisition bid. Nor has there been major hedge fund activity in HIMX.
Maybe an institutional investor is building a stake in HIMX. We’ll know better in February, when SEC disclosures are due.
The tech sector has been on a tear. HIMX has benefited. The stock’s growth prospects justify the run-up.
The average analyst expectation for year-over-year earnings growth next year is 75%. My numbers show that HIMX is on track to generate five-year earnings growth of 25%, on an annualized basis.
HIMX remains a buy up to $20.
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM)
TSM shares came under pressure this week, after it was downgraded by analysts. Over the past five days, TSM shares have dropped 4.36%.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) changed TSM from an “overweight” rating to an “equal weight” rating in a research note issued to investors. The news weighed on the chip making sector. But the pessimism is overdone.
The downgrade stemmed from bearish estimates of chip demand. We’re not concerned. Investors shouldn’t worry about temporary ups and downs. Nor should the whims of mainstream analysts concern you. The crystal ball gazers on Wall Street often have hidden agendas. And these blockheads are often wrong.
We’re invested in this stock for the long haul. TSM’s fundamentals haven’t changed. We expect economic growth to continue into 2018. Chip demand should hold firm. I expect TSM’s five-year annualized earnings growth rate to exceed 15%.
TSM is a buy up to $50.
- Helmerich & Payne (NYSE: HP)
Shares of this oilfield services firm should breakout, thanks to OPEC’s agreement this week.
On Thursday, OPEC met in Vienna. The cartel agreed to prolong output curbs until the end of 2018. They were set to lapse in March.
OPEC production cuts have been in place since the start of 2017. They’ve helped halve global oil inventories. Energy prices have bounced back from their recession.
Energy supply and demand are out of whack. But OPEC’s embrace Thursday of an extended production cut helps restore balance.
Crude is above $50 per barrel, the breakeven point for energy firms. HP should benefit as energy prices rise.
HP is a buy up to $80.
- Western Digital (NSDQ: WDC)
Western Digital and Toshiba (OTC: TOSBF) are settling their legal dispute. It’s about time.
Details must be worked out. But Western Digital plans to end arbitration claims in the U.S. These claims are to stop Toshiba from selling its chip business to a consortium. WDC would drop efforts to block Toshiba’s $18 billion sale of its flash-memory business. In return, WDC would get an extension of their joint venture.
For dropping its legal challenge, WDC seeks a supply of advanced chips. These chips would be built at a plant in Japan under construction by Toshiba.
With the Toshiba cloud removed, Western Digital should outperform.
The consensus is that WDC’s year-over-year earnings growth will come in at 59.60% this quarter, 24.30% next quarter, and 43.20% this year. WDC should rack up five-year annualized earnings growth of 24%.
WDC is a buy up to $103.
John Persinos is chief investment strategist of Breakthrough Tech Profits.
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